Football · USA MLS · 16/08, 01:30

Prediction: Charlotte FC vs Columbus Crew

Team pages: Charlotte FC · Columbus Crew

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.74Total

Charlotte FC1.52

Columbus Crew1.22

1X2

44% 27% 30%

Charlotte FC Draw Columbus Crew

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Charlotte FC 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

LDLWWDWLWW

Columbus Crew 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

LDWWDLWDWW

Head-to-head

Charlotte FC 3–1–2 Columbus Crew (6 last)

Charlotte FC3-2Columbus Crew
Columbus Crew4-2Charlotte FC
Columbus Crew1-1Charlotte FC
Charlotte FC2-0Columbus Crew
Columbus Crew4-2Charlotte FC
Charlotte FC1-0Columbus Crew

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Charlotte FC 1515 · Columbus Crew 1533

	Charlotte FC	Draw	Columbus Crew
Our model	43%	28%	29%
Market	44%	26%	30%

Estimated total (ours) 2.74 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 61%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Charlotte FC: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 8.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Charlotte FC	Columbus Crew
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 0.9	1.7 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.5	1.1 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/30/20%	50/20/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.5 / 5	1.7 / 2.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5 / 0.2	3.6 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.10

X3.60

23.05

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.88

2 (+0.25)1.93

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.82

Under 2.751.98

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 2.7

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 01:37

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.10 → 2.10	Pinn 2.32 ★
X	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
2	3.05 → 3.05	Bet365 3.05

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8.2% Pinnacle margin 5%

Time*	1	X	2
01:34 +3’	2.10	3.60	3.05

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
01:37	2.32	3.54	2.97

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Charlotte FC 3–1–2 Columbus Crew

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Date	Home	Score	Away
25/05/25 USA MLS	Charlotte FC	3-2 HT 2-1	Columbus Crew
04/05/25 USA MLS	Columbus Crew	4-2 HT 2-1	Charlotte FC
18/07/24 USA MLS	Columbus Crew	1-1 HT 1-0	Charlotte FC
24/03/24 USA MLS	Charlotte FC	2-0 HT 0-0	Columbus Crew
04/06/23 USA MLS	Columbus Crew	4-2 HT 3-0	Charlotte FC
23/04/23 USA MLS	Charlotte FC	1-0 HT 1-0	Columbus Crew

Standings · USA MLS · MLS 2026, Eastern Conference

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Nashville SC	18	12	4	2	35	14	40
2	Inter Miami CF	18	11	5	2	45	32	38
3	New England Revolution	18	9	3	6	28	23	30
4	Chicago Fire	17	9	2	6	32	23	29
5	New York City FC	18	7	5	6	31	24	26
6	FC Cincinnati	18	7	5	6	45	44	26
7	Charlotte FC	18	7	4	7	29	27	25
8	New York Red Bulls	18	7	4	7	29	39	25
9	DC United	18	5	8	5	26	29	23
10	Orlando City SC	18	6	2	10	30	47	20
11	Columbus Crew	18	5	5	8	26	28	20
12	Toronto FC	18	3	8	7	24	32	17
13	Philadelphia Union	18	4	4	10	25	33	16
14	CF Montreal	18	4	4	10	24	35	16
15	Atlanta United	18	3	3	12	19	33	12

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Charlotte FC	Columbus Crew
Atlas	2-0 W	3-1 W
New York Red Bulls	2-0 W	2-3 L
Atlanta United	2-2 D	2-0 W
New York City FC	0-1 L	1-2 L
FC Cincinnati	2-2 D	2-1 W
Record vs common	2 W 2 D 1 L	3 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Columbus Crew (2 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Charlotte FC

LDLWWDWLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/08	Atlas Leagues Cup	0-0	2-0	1	6	W
05/08	Unam Pumas Leagues Cup	1-0	3-0	6	3	W
02/08	Chicago Fire USA MLS	1-1	1-2	6	3	L
26/07	New York Red Bulls USA MLS	2-0	2-0	1	6	W
23/07	Atlanta United USA MLS	2-0	2-2	6	4	D
24/05	New England Revolution USA MLS	1-0	1-0	3	6	W
17/05	Toronto FC USA MLS	2-1	3-1	7	3	W
14/05	New York City FC USA MLS	0-1	0-1	8	9	L
10/05	FC Cincinnati USA MLS	0-2	2-2	7	5	D
03/05	New England Revolution USA MLS	0-0	0-1	5	7	L

Columbus Crew

LDWWDLWDWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/08	Pachuca Leagues Cup	2-0	2-1	3	6	W
05/08	Atlas Leagues Cup	2-0	3-1	3	3	W
02/08	Inter Miami CF USA MLS	1-2	2-2	2	3	D
26/07	FC Cincinnati USA MLS	2-1	2-1	4	2	W
23/07	New York City FC USA MLS	0-1	1-2	3	5	L
12/07	Burnley Club Friendly List	0-0	1-1	–	–	D
24/05	Atlanta United USA MLS	2-0	2-0	2	5	W
21/05	New York City FC USA US Open Cup	0-0	1-0	3	1	W
17/05	Philadelphia Union USA MLS	1-0	1-1	4	4	D
14/05	New York Red Bulls USA MLS	1-2	2-3	2	5	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Charlotte FC vs Columbus Crew?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Charlotte FC win (44%). Probabilities: Charlotte FC 44%, draw 27%, Columbus Crew 30%.

How many goals are expected in Charlotte FC vs Columbus Crew?

The model expects 2.74 goals (Charlotte FC 1.52 · Columbus Crew 1.22), with a 51% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Charlotte FC vs Columbus Crew?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.