Football · USA MLS · 16/08, 01:30

Prediction: CF Montreal vs DC United

Team pages: CF Montreal · DC United

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.27Total

CF Montreal1.77

DC United1.5

1X2

43% 26% 31%

CF Montreal Draw DC United

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 59% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

CF Montreal 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

WDLDWWDLLD

DC United 3-6-1 (W-D-L)

DWWDLDDDWD

Head-to-head

CF Montreal 1–3–2 DC United (6 last)

DC United4-4CF Montreal
CF Montreal1-1DC United
DC United0-0CF Montreal
CF Montreal4-2DC United
DC United1-0CF Montreal
CF Montreal0-1DC United

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · CF Montreal 1482 · DC United 1516

	CF Montreal	Draw	DC United
Our model	43%	25%	32%
Market	42%	27%	31%

Estimated total (ours) 3.27 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 57%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours DC United: 2-3-1.
High corners: 12.2 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	CF Montreal	DC United
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 1.4	2.2 / 2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.6	0.9 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/60/30%	60/10/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.2 / 6.5	3.4 / 5.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.5 / 0.1	5.2 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.20

X3.50

23.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.95

2 (+0.25)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.90

Under 2.751.90

Diff.: 0.75 · xG: 3.5

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 01:37

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.20 → 2.20	Pinn 2.28 ★
X	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50
2	3.00 → 3.00	Pinn 3.07

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.4% Pinnacle margin 5%

Time*	1	X	2
01:32 +5’	2.20	3.50	3.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
01:37	2.28	3.50	3.07

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · CF Montreal 1–3–2 DC United

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Date	Home	Score	Away
24/05/26 USA MLS	DC United	4-4 HT 2-1	CF Montreal
17/08/25 USA MLS	CF Montreal	1-1 HT 1-1	DC United
16/03/25 USA MLS	DC United	0-0 HT 0-0	CF Montreal
30/05/24 USA MLS	CF Montreal	4-2 HT 3-2	DC United
31/03/24 USA MLS	DC United	1-0 HT 0-0	CF Montreal
27/07/23 Leagues Cup	CF Montreal	0-1 HT 0-0	DC United

Standings · USA MLS · MLS 2026, Eastern Conference

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Nashville SC	18	12	4	2	35	14	40
2	Inter Miami CF	18	11	5	2	45	32	38
3	New England Revolution	18	9	3	6	28	23	30
4	Chicago Fire	17	9	2	6	32	23	29
5	New York City FC	18	7	5	6	31	24	26
6	FC Cincinnati	18	7	5	6	45	44	26
7	Charlotte FC	18	7	4	7	29	27	25
8	New York Red Bulls	18	7	4	7	29	39	25
9	DC United	18	5	8	5	26	29	23
10	Orlando City SC	18	6	2	10	30	47	20
11	Columbus Crew	18	5	5	8	26	28	20
12	Toronto FC	18	3	8	7	24	32	17
13	Philadelphia Union	18	4	4	10	25	33	16
14	CF Montreal	18	4	4	10	24	35	16
15	Atlanta United	18	3	3	12	19	33	12

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	CF Montreal	DC United
Nashville SC	0-1 L	2-2 D
Toronto FC	0-0 D	2-1 W
Chicago Fire	0-2 L	1-3 L
Orlando City SC	2-0 W	3-2 W
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 2 L	2 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: DC United (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

CF Montreal

WDLDWWDLLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
02/08	New England Revolution USA MLS	0-2	2-2	6	1	D
26/07	Inter Miami CF USA MLS	0-0	0-1	5	2	L
23/07	Nashville SC USA MLS	0-0	0-1	2	2	L
17/07	Toronto FC USA MLS	0-0	0-0	9	2	D
13/07	Vancouver FC Canada Championships	0-0	2-1	4	6	W
09/07	Vancouver FC Canada Championships	0-0	2-1	2	3	W
24/05	DC United USA MLS	1-2	4-4	4	7	D
16/05	Chicago Fire USA MLS	0-1	0-2	16	7	L
14/05	Portland Timbers USA MLS	2-1	2-2	6	3	D
09/05	Orlando City SC USA MLS	0-0	2-0	11	3	W

DC United

DWWDLDDDWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
02/08	Nashville SC USA MLS	0-2	2-2	8	5	D
26/07	Toronto FC USA MLS	1-0	2-1	8	2	W
23/07	Houston Dynamo USA MLS	0-1	1-1	3	6	D
24/05	CF Montreal USA MLS	2-1	4-4	6	7	D
17/05	St. Louis City SC USA MLS	0-0	1-1	5	8	D
14/05	Chicago Fire USA MLS	1-0	1-3	7	5	L
10/05	Nashville SC USA MLS	2-0	2-2	7	5	D
03/05	New York City FC USA MLS	1-0	2-0	3	5	W
26/04	Orlando City SC USA MLS	1-0	3-2	7	8	W
23/04	New York Red Bulls USA MLS	1-2	4-4	3	3	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in CF Montreal vs DC United?

According to our model, the most likely result is a CF Montreal win (43%). Probabilities: CF Montreal 43%, draw 26%, DC United 31%.

How many goals are expected in CF Montreal vs DC United?

The model expects 3.27 goals (CF Montreal 1.77 · DC United 1.5), with a 54% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in CF Montreal vs DC United?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.