Football · USA MLS · 16/08, 01:30

Prediction: Orlando City SC vs FC Cincinnati

Team pages: Orlando City SC · FC Cincinnati

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.22Total

Orlando City SC2.17

FC Cincinnati2.05

1X2

41% 22% 37%

Orlando City SC Draw FC Cincinnati

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 63%

Most likely score

2-2

Recent form · 10 last

Orlando City SC 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

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FC Cincinnati 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Orlando City SC 2–1–3 FC Cincinnati (6 last)

FC Cincinnati6-2Orlando City SC
Orlando City SC3-2FC Cincinnati
FC Cincinnati1-1Orlando City SC
Orlando City SC1-2FC Cincinnati
FC Cincinnati1-3Orlando City SC
Orlando City SC0-1FC Cincinnati

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Orlando City SC 1525 · FC Cincinnati 1547

	Orlando City SC	Draw	FC Cincinnati
Our model	42%	21%	37%
Market	41%	23%	36%

Estimated total (ours) 4.22 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · +0.7

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 78%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours FC Cincinnati: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 8.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Orlando City SC	FC Cincinnati
Goals for / against (FT)	2.1 / 1.9	3.1 / 2.1
Goals for / against (HT)	1.2 / 0.4	1.5 / 1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	60/20/20%	50/40/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.9 / 4.5	2.1 / 4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.5 / 0	3.6 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.25

X4.10

22.55

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)2.02

2 (+0.25)1.77

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.82

Under 3.51.98

Diff.: 1.1 · xG: 4.6

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 01:37

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.25 → 2.25	Bet365 2.25
X	4.10 → 4.10	Bet365 4.10
2	2.55 → 2.55	Pinn 2.83 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8.1% Pinnacle margin 5%

Time*	1	X	2
01:33 +3’	2.25	4.10	2.55

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
01:36 +1’	2.22	4.07	2.83

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Orlando City SC 2–1–3 FC Cincinnati

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Date	Home	Score	Away
24/05/26 USA MLS	FC Cincinnati	6-2 HT 2-1	Orlando City SC
11/02/26 America Friendlies	Orlando City SC	3-2	FC Cincinnati
29/09/25 USA MLS	FC Cincinnati	1-1 HT 0-0	Orlando City SC
29/06/25 USA MLS	Orlando City SC	1-2 HT 0-1	FC Cincinnati
06/10/24 USA MLS	FC Cincinnati	1-3 HT 1-1	Orlando City SC
05/05/24 USA MLS	Orlando City SC	0-1 HT 0-1	FC Cincinnati

Standings · USA MLS · MLS 2026, Eastern Conference

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Nashville SC	18	12	4	2	35	14	40
2	Inter Miami CF	18	11	5	2	45	32	38
3	New England Revolution	18	9	3	6	28	23	30
4	Chicago Fire	17	9	2	6	32	23	29
5	New York City FC	18	7	5	6	31	24	26
6	FC Cincinnati	18	7	5	6	45	44	26
7	Charlotte FC	18	7	4	7	29	27	25
8	New York Red Bulls	18	7	4	7	29	39	25
9	DC United	18	5	8	5	26	29	23
10	Orlando City SC	18	6	2	10	30	47	20
11	Columbus Crew	18	5	5	8	26	28	20
12	Toronto FC	18	3	8	7	24	32	17
13	Philadelphia Union	18	4	4	10	25	33	16
14	CF Montreal	18	4	4	10	24	35	16
15	Atlanta United	18	3	3	12	19	33	12

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Orlando City SC

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
09/08	Leon Leagues Cup	1-0	1-2	7	4	L
06/08	Monterrey Leagues Cup	1-0	2-1	5	8	W
02/08	New York Red Bulls USA MLS	0-2	2-3	4	5	L
26/07	Nashville SC USA MLS	0-0	1-0	2	1	W
23/07	San Jose Earthquakes USA MLS	2-0	4-0	2	6	W
24/05	FC Cincinnati USA MLS	1-2	2-6	9	5	L
20/05	Atlanta United USA US Open Cup	4-0	4-1	7	6	W
17/05	Atlanta United USA MLS	1-0	1-1	4	3	D
14/05	Philadelphia Union USA MLS	2-0	4-3	2	4	W
09/05	CF Montreal USA MLS	0-0	0-2	3	3	L

FC Cincinnati

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/08	Unam Pumas Leagues Cup	1-0	2-0	4	1	W
05/08	Pachuca Leagues Cup	2-1	3-1	3	5	W
02/08	San Jose Earthquakes USA MLS	1-1	4-2	9	3	W
26/07	Columbus Crew USA MLS	1-2	1-2	5	2	L
23/07	Vancouver Whitecaps USA MLS	3-2	4-3	1	6	W
11/07	Burnley World Club Friendlies	1-1	3-1	5	1	W
24/05	Orlando City SC USA MLS	2-1	6-2	6	5	W
17/05	San Diego FC USA MLS	1-1	3-3	2	4	D
14/05	Inter Miami CF USA MLS	1-1	3-5	1	5	L
10/05	Charlotte FC USA MLS	2-0	2-2	4	5	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Orlando City SC vs FC Cincinnati?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Orlando City SC win (41%). Probabilities: Orlando City SC 41%, draw 22%, FC Cincinnati 37%.

How many goals are expected in Orlando City SC vs FC Cincinnati?

The model expects 4.22 goals (Orlando City SC 2.17 · FC Cincinnati 2.05), with a 56% chance of over 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Orlando City SC vs FC Cincinnati?

The model gives a 63% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-2.