Football · USA MLS · 16/08, 01:30

Prediction: Toronto FC vs New England Revolution

Team pages: Toronto FC · New England Revolution

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.8Total

Toronto FC1.47

New England Revolution1.33

1X2

40% 27% 33%

Toronto FC Draw New England Revolution

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Toronto FC 0-4-6 (W-D-L)

LDLLLLDDLD

New England Revolution 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

LWWLWLDWDL

Head-to-head

Toronto FC 2–2–2 New England Revolution (6 last)

New England Revolution0-0Toronto FC
New England Revolution1-1Toronto FC
Toronto FC0-2New England Revolution
Toronto FC1-0New England Revolution
New England Revolution0-1Toronto FC
New England Revolution2-1Toronto FC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Toronto FC 1433 · New England Revolution 1480

	Toronto FC	Draw	New England Revolution
Our model	39%	28%	33%
Market	40%	26%	34%

Estimated total (ours) 2.8 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 58%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours New England Revolution (rating 1433 vs 1480).
High corners: 10.5 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Toronto FC	New England Revolution
Goals for / against (FT)	0.9 / 1.8	1.4 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.7	0.7 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/60/30%	20/40/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.4 / 4.9	3.2 / 5.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.6 / 0	3.7 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.30

X3.50

22.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)2.02

2 (+0.25)1.77

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.88

Under 2.751.93

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 2.8

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 01:36

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.30 → 2.30	Bet365 2.30
X	3.50 → 3.50	Pinn 3.65
2	2.75 → 2.75	Pinn 3.20 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8.4% Pinnacle margin 4.9%

Time*	1	X	2
01:26 +10’	2.30	3.50	2.75

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
03:08	2.14	3.65	3.25
06:46 +1’	2.16▲	3.65	3.20▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Toronto FC 2–2–2 New England Revolution

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Date	Home	Score	Away
23/07/26 USA MLS	New England Revolution	0-0 HT 0-0	Toronto FC
14/09/25 USA MLS	New England Revolution	1-1 HT 0-0	Toronto FC
03/05/25 USA MLS	Toronto FC	0-2 HT 0-2	New England Revolution
21/04/24 USA MLS	Toronto FC	1-0 HT 0-0	New England Revolution
03/03/24 USA MLS	New England Revolution	0-1 HT 0-1	Toronto FC
25/06/23 USA MLS	New England Revolution	2-1 HT 1-1	Toronto FC

Standings · USA MLS · MLS 2026, Eastern Conference

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Nashville SC	18	12	4	2	35	14	40
2	Inter Miami CF	18	11	5	2	45	32	38
3	New England Revolution	18	9	3	6	28	23	30
4	Chicago Fire	17	9	2	6	32	23	29
5	New York City FC	18	7	5	6	31	24	26
6	FC Cincinnati	18	7	5	6	45	44	26
7	Charlotte FC	18	7	4	7	29	27	25
8	New York Red Bulls	18	7	4	7	29	39	25
9	DC United	18	5	8	5	26	29	23
10	Orlando City SC	18	6	2	10	30	47	20
11	Columbus Crew	18	5	5	8	26	28	20
12	Toronto FC	18	3	8	7	24	32	17
13	Philadelphia Union	18	4	4	10	25	33	16
14	CF Montreal	18	4	4	10	24	35	16
15	Atlanta United	18	3	3	12	19	33	12

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Toronto FC	New England Revolution
CF Montreal	0-0 D	2-2 D
Charlotte FC	1-3 L	0-1 L
Atlanta United	1-2 L	4-1 W
Record vs common	0 W 1 D 2 L	1 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: New England Revolution (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Toronto FC

LDLLLLDDLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/08	New York City FC USA MLS	1-1	1-1	2	6	D
26/07	DC United USA MLS	0-1	1-2	5	2	L
23/07	New England Revolution USA MLS	0-0	0-0	9	2	D
17/07	CF Montreal USA MLS	0-0	0-0	3	2	D
24/05	Chicago Fire USA MLS	1-1	1-2	4	7	L
17/05	Charlotte FC USA MLS	1-2	1-3	3	3	L
09/05	Inter Miami CF USA MLS	0-1	2-4	4	3	L
06/05	Atletico Ottawa Canada Championships	1-0	1-3	3	5	L
02/05	San Jose Earthquakes USA MLS	1-1	1-1	8	4	D
25/04	Atlanta United USA MLS	0-0	1-2	8	2	L

New England Revolution

LWWLWLDWDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/08	Houston Dynamo USA MLS	0-1	0-2	9	3	L
02/08	CF Montreal USA MLS	2-0	2-2	3	1	D
26/07	Atlanta United USA MLS	2-0	4-1	4	4	W
23/07	Toronto FC USA MLS	0-0	0-0	7	2	D
24/05	Charlotte FC USA MLS	0-1	0-1	4	6	L
17/05	Minnesota United USA MLS	1-1	2-1	8	3	W
14/05	Nashville SC USA MLS	0-2	0-3	6	5	L
10/05	Philadelphia Union USA MLS	0-1	2-1	9	3	W
03/05	Charlotte FC USA MLS	0-0	1-0	3	7	W
30/04	Orlando City SC USA US Open Cup	2-2	3-4	3	4	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Toronto FC vs New England Revolution?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Toronto FC win (40%). Probabilities: Toronto FC 40%, draw 27%, New England Revolution 33%.

How many goals are expected in Toronto FC vs New England Revolution?

The model expects 2.8 goals (Toronto FC 1.47 · New England Revolution 1.33), with a 51% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Toronto FC vs New England Revolution?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.