Football · USA MLS · 17/08, 02:30

Prediction: Austin FC vs FC Dallas

Team pages: Austin FC · FC Dallas

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.9Total

Austin FC1.37

FC Dallas1.53

1X2

33% 27% 40%

Austin FC Draw FC Dallas

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Austin FC 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

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FC Dallas 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

WLWWDLDWWL

Head-to-head

Austin FC 1–1–4 FC Dallas (6 last)

FC Dallas2-0Austin FC
Austin FC1-1FC Dallas
FC Dallas3-1Austin FC
FC Dallas2-1Austin FC
Austin FC2-1FC Dallas
FC Dallas1-0Austin FC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Austin FC 1483 · FC Dallas 1547

	Austin FC	Draw	FC Dallas
Our model	33%	27%	40%
Market	33%	27%	40%

Estimated total (ours) 2.9 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 60%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FC Dallas (rating 1483 vs 1547).
H2H favours FC Dallas: 4-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 9.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Austin FC	FC Dallas
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 1.7	1.6 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.7	0.8 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/30/30%	30/50/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.2 / 3.9	2.2 / 4.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.5 / 0.2	4.8 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.88

X3.50

22.35

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.77

2 (-0.25)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.82

Under 2.751.98

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 2.95

Market movement

Match winner · 4 moves · last 07:34

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.88 → 2.88	Bet365 2.88
X	3.60 → 3.50▼	Pinn 3.61 ★
2	2.30 → 2.35▲	Pinn 2.40

See the full journey (4)

Bet365 margin 5.9% Pinnacle margin 5.1%

Time*	1	X	2
00:41 +4’	2.88	3.60	2.30
04:41 +1’	2.88	3.50▼	2.35▲
06:28 +5’	2.88	3.60▲	2.30▼
07:33	2.88	3.50▼	2.35▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
00:44	2.80	3.61	2.40

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Both teams to score

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Austin FC 1–1–4 FC Dallas

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Date	Home	Score	Away
14/09/25 USA MLS	FC Dallas	2-0 HT 1-0	Austin FC
17/08/25 USA MLS	Austin FC	1-1 HT 0-1	FC Dallas
18/07/24 USA MLS	FC Dallas	3-1 HT 1-1	Austin FC
12/05/24 USA MLS	FC Dallas	2-1 HT 1-0	Austin FC
31/03/24 USA MLS	Austin FC	2-1 HT 0-0	FC Dallas
27/08/23 USA MLS	FC Dallas	1-0 HT 0-0	Austin FC

Standings · USA MLS · MLS 2026, Western Conference

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Vancouver Whitecaps	17	10	4	3	38	17	34
2	Los Angeles FC	19	10	4	5	35	19	34
3	San Jose Earthquakes	18	10	3	5	37	24	33
4	Houston Dynamo	18	10	2	6	27	24	32
5	Real Salt Lake	17	8	3	6	29	25	27
6	FC Dallas	18	7	6	5	32	25	27
7	St. Louis City SC	18	7	5	6	24	24	26
8	Portland Timbers	18	7	3	8	33	33	24
9	Seattle Sounders	17	7	3	7	20	22	24
10	Minnesota United	18	6	6	6	20	25	24
11	Colorado Rapids	18	7	1	10	27	25	22
12	LA Galaxy	19	5	7	7	24	29	22
13	San Diego FC	18	5	6	7	32	29	21
14	Austin FC	18	4	5	9	22	36	17
15	Sporting Kansas City	18	4	2	12	18	46	14

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Austin FC	FC Dallas
Colorado Rapids	0-1 L	2-1 W
San Diego FC	0-5 L	0-1 L
Record vs common	0 W 0 D 2 L	1 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: FC Dallas (2 of 2 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Austin FC

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/08	Puebla Leagues Cup	3-0	3-0	7	5	W
07/08	Tijuana Leagues Cup	2-0	2-0	6	6	W
02/08	Colorado Rapids USA MLS	0-0	0-1	0	4	L
26/07	Houston Dynamo USA MLS	0-3	0-3	6	4	L
23/07	Seattle Sounders USA MLS	1-1	3-1	4	5	W
23/05	St. Louis City SC USA MLS	0-1	0-3	2	2	L
17/05	Sporting Kansas City USA MLS	1-0	1-2	3	7	L
14/05	San Diego FC USA MLS	0-2	0-5	3	1	L
11/05	Minnesota United USA MLS	1-0	2-2	4	7	D
03/05	St. Louis City SC USA MLS	0-0	2-0	4	6	W

FC Dallas

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
13/08	Toluca Leagues Cup	1-2	1-3	4	5	L
09/08	Chivas Guadalajara Leagues Cup	0-0	1-0	1	1	W
06/08	Queretaro Leagues Cup	0-0	2-0	6	6	W
02/08	LA Galaxy USA MLS	0-0	0-0	6	6	D
26/07	San Diego FC USA MLS	0-0	0-1	4	2	L
23/07	Portland Timbers USA MLS	1-0	2-2	3	5	D
24/05	Colorado Rapids USA MLS	2-1	2-1	3	6	W
17/05	San Jose Earthquakes USA MLS	1-1	3-2	4	6	W
14/05	Vancouver Whitecaps USA MLS	1-2	2-3	6	7	L
10/05	Real Salt Lake USA MLS	2-0	3-1	4	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Austin FC vs FC Dallas?

According to our model, the most likely result is an FC Dallas win (40%). Probabilities: Austin FC 33%, draw 27%, FC Dallas 40%.

How many goals are expected in Austin FC vs FC Dallas?

The model expects 2.9 goals (Austin FC 1.37 · FC Dallas 1.53), with a 51% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Austin FC vs FC Dallas?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.