Football · USA MLS · 16/08, 02:30

Prediction: Houston Dynamo vs LA Galaxy

Team pages: Houston Dynamo · LA Galaxy

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.65Total

Houston Dynamo1.71

LA Galaxy0.94

1X2

55% 25% 20%

Houston Dynamo Draw LA Galaxy

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Houston Dynamo 6-3-1 (W-D-L)

WLWDDWDWWW

LA Galaxy 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

DWLWDWLLDD

Head-to-head

Houston Dynamo 1–4–1 LA Galaxy (6 last)

LA Galaxy1-1Houston Dynamo
Houston Dynamo1-1LA Galaxy
LA Galaxy1-1Houston Dynamo
Houston Dynamo2-1LA Galaxy
LA Galaxy2-1Houston Dynamo
LA Galaxy0-0Houston Dynamo

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Houston Dynamo 1574 · LA Galaxy 1491

	Houston Dynamo	Draw	LA Galaxy
Our model	54%	26%	19%
Market	56%	24%	21%

Estimated total (ours) 2.65 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 57%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Houston Dynamo (rating 1574 vs 1491).
Cards-heavy: 9.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Houston Dynamo	LA Galaxy
Goals for / against (FT)	1.8 / 0.9	1 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	1.1 / 0.4	0.4 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/50/0%	30/40/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.6 / 3.2	2 / 5.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.3 / 0.3	4.8 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.67

X3.90

24.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.85

2 (+0.75)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.77

Under 2.752.02

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 2.5

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:39

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.67 → 1.67	Pinn 1.72
X	3.90 → 3.90	Pinn 4.09 ★
2	4.50 → 4.50	Bet365 4.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.9% Pinnacle margin 5.4%

Time*	1	X	2
00:34 +5’	1.67	3.90	4.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
00:39	1.72	4.09	4.36

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Houston Dynamo 1–4–1 LA Galaxy

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Date	Home	Score	Away
24/05/26 USA MLS	LA Galaxy	1-1 HT 1-1	Houston Dynamo
07/09/25 USA MLS	Houston Dynamo	1-1 HT 1-0	LA Galaxy
13/04/25 USA MLS	LA Galaxy	1-1 HT 0-1	Houston Dynamo
20/10/24 USA MLS	Houston Dynamo	2-1 HT 1-0	LA Galaxy
26/05/24 USA MLS	LA Galaxy	2-1 HT 1-1	Houston Dynamo
03/09/23 USA MLS	LA Galaxy	0-0 HT 0-0	Houston Dynamo

Standings · USA MLS · MLS 2026, Western Conference

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Vancouver Whitecaps	17	10	4	3	38	17	34
2	Los Angeles FC	19	10	4	5	35	19	34
3	San Jose Earthquakes	18	10	3	5	37	24	33
4	Houston Dynamo	18	10	2	6	27	24	32
5	Real Salt Lake	17	8	3	6	29	25	27
6	FC Dallas	18	7	6	5	32	25	27
7	St. Louis City SC	18	7	5	6	24	24	26
8	Portland Timbers	18	7	3	8	33	33	24
9	Seattle Sounders	17	7	3	7	20	22	24
10	Minnesota United	18	6	6	6	20	25	24
11	Colorado Rapids	18	7	1	10	27	25	22
12	LA Galaxy	19	5	7	7	24	29	22
13	San Diego FC	18	5	6	7	32	29	21
14	Austin FC	18	4	5	9	22	36	17
15	Sporting Kansas City	18	4	2	12	18	46	14

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Houston Dynamo	LA Galaxy
Sporting Kansas City	2-0 W	1-3 L
St. Louis City SC	2-2 D	1-3 L
Vancouver Whitecaps	1-0 W	1-1 D
Los Angeles FC	4-1 W	0-3 L
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 0 L	0 W 1 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Houston Dynamo (4 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Houston Dynamo

WLWDDWDWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/08	New England Revolution USA MLS	1-0	2-0	4	3	W
02/08	Sporting Kansas City USA MLS	0-0	2-0	6	3	W
26/07	Austin FC USA MLS	3-0	3-0	1	4	W
23/07	DC United USA MLS	1-0	1-1	3	6	D
16/07	America de Cali Club Friendly List	1-1	2-1	–	–	W
24/05	LA Galaxy USA MLS	1-1	1-1	2	4	D
20/05	St. Louis City SC USA US Open Cup	2-1	2-2	5	8	D
17/05	Vancouver Whitecaps USA MLS	0-0	1-0	4	6	W
14/05	Real Salt Lake USA MLS	0-0	0-3	1	1	L
11/05	Los Angeles FC USA MLS	2-1	4-1	3	7	W

LA Galaxy

DWLWDWLLDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
02/08	FC Dallas USA MLS	0-0	0-0	6	6	D
26/07	San Jose Earthquakes USA MLS	1-0	1-1	6	6	D
23/07	St. Louis City SC USA MLS	0-2	1-3	4	5	L
18/07	Los Angeles FC USA MLS	0-2	0-3	9	3	L
12/07	Club America America Friendlies	1-0	1-0	3	3	W
24/05	Houston Dynamo USA MLS	1-1	1-1	9	4	D
17/05	Seattle Sounders USA MLS	1-0	2-0	1	5	W
14/05	Sporting Kansas City USA MLS	0-2	1-3	8	3	L
10/05	Atlanta United USA MLS	0-0	2-1	5	4	W
03/05	Vancouver Whitecaps USA MLS	0-0	1-1	1	10	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Houston Dynamo vs LA Galaxy?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Houston Dynamo win (55%). Probabilities: Houston Dynamo 55%, draw 25%, LA Galaxy 20%.

How many goals are expected in Houston Dynamo vs LA Galaxy?

The model expects 2.65 goals (Houston Dynamo 1.71 · LA Galaxy 0.94), with a 52% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Houston Dynamo vs LA Galaxy?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.