Football · USA MLS · 16/08, 03:30

Prediction: Colorado Rapids vs Sporting Kansas City

Team pages: Colorado Rapids · Sporting Kansas City

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.27Total

Colorado Rapids2.21

Sporting Kansas City1.06

1X2

63% 21% 16%

Colorado Rapids Draw Sporting Kansas City

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 59% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

2-1

Recent form · 10 last

Colorado Rapids 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

LLWLWLDWLW

Sporting Kansas City 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

LDLWWLLWLL

Head-to-head

Colorado Rapids 3–3 Sporting Kansas City (6 last)

Sporting Kansas City1-4Colorado Rapids
Sporting Kansas City4-2Colorado Rapids
Colorado Rapids1-2Sporting Kansas City
Sporting Kansas City4-1Colorado Rapids
Colorado Rapids2-1Sporting Kansas City
Sporting Kansas City0-1Colorado Rapids

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Colorado Rapids 1498 · Sporting Kansas City 1451

	Colorado Rapids	Draw	Sporting Kansas City
Our model	63%	21%	16%
Market	63%	21%	16%

Estimated total (ours) 3.27 goals · Bet365 line 3.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 70%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Colorado Rapids (rating 1498 vs 1451).
Cards-heavy: 9.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Colorado Rapids	Sporting Kansas City
Goals for / against (FT)	0.8 / 0.8	1.1 / 2.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.4	0.5 / 1.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/50/20%	20/30/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	3 / 6	1.6 / 3.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.9 / 0.3	3.4 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.48

X4.33

25.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.25)1.98

2 (+1.25)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.82

Under 3.251.98

Diff.: 0.6 · xG: 2.65

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:40

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.48 → 1.48	Pinn 1.50
X	4.33 → 4.33	Pinn 4.74 ★
2	5.75 → 5.75	Bet365 5.75

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8% Pinnacle margin 5.6%

Time*	1	X	2
00:40	1.48	4.33	5.75

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
00:40	1.50	4.74	5.57

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Colorado Rapids 3–0–3 Sporting Kansas City

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
22/03/26 USA MLS	Sporting Kansas City	1-4 HT 1-2	Colorado Rapids
31/08/25 USA MLS	Sporting Kansas City	4-2 HT 1-2	Colorado Rapids
05/07/25 USA MLS	Colorado Rapids	1-2 HT 0-1	Sporting Kansas City
19/09/24 USA MLS	Sporting Kansas City	4-1 HT 1-0	Colorado Rapids
05/07/24 USA MLS	Colorado Rapids	2-1 HT 0-0	Sporting Kansas City
09/04/23 USA MLS	Sporting Kansas City	0-1 HT 0-0	Colorado Rapids

Standings · USA MLS · MLS 2026, Western Conference

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Vancouver Whitecaps	17	10	4	3	38	17	34
2	Los Angeles FC	19	10	4	5	35	19	34
3	San Jose Earthquakes	18	10	3	5	37	24	33
4	Houston Dynamo	18	10	2	6	27	24	32
5	Real Salt Lake	17	8	3	6	29	25	27
6	FC Dallas	18	7	6	5	32	25	27
7	St. Louis City SC	18	7	5	6	24	24	26
8	Portland Timbers	18	7	3	8	33	33	24
9	Seattle Sounders	17	7	3	7	20	22	24
10	Minnesota United	18	6	6	6	20	25	24
11	Colorado Rapids	18	7	1	10	27	25	22
12	LA Galaxy	19	5	7	7	24	29	22
13	San Diego FC	18	5	6	7	32	29	21
14	Austin FC	18	4	5	9	22	36	17
15	Sporting Kansas City	18	4	2	12	18	46	14

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Colorado Rapids	Sporting Kansas City
Austin FC	1-0 W	2-1 W
St. Louis City SC	0-1 L	2-3 L
Minnesota United	1-0 W	2-1 W
Houston Dynamo	0-1 L	0-2 L
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 2 L	2 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Colorado Rapids (1 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Colorado Rapids

LLWLWLDWLW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
02/08	Austin FC USA MLS	0-0	1-0	11	4	W
26/07	St. Louis City SC USA MLS	0-0	0-1	1	4	L
23/07	San Diego FC USA MLS	0-0	1-0	5	7	W
10/07	Juarez FC Club Friendly List	1-0	1-1	–	–	D
24/05	FC Dallas USA MLS	1-2	1-2	5	6	L
21/05	San Jose Earthquakes USA US Open Cup	2-0	2-0	5	5	W
17/05	Real Salt Lake USA MLS	1-1	1-2	6	5	L
14/05	Minnesota United USA MLS	1-0	1-0	5	9	W
10/05	St. Louis City SC USA MLS	0-1	0-1	11	10	L
03/05	Houston Dynamo USA MLS	0-0	0-1	5	6	L

Sporting Kansas City

LDLWWLLWLL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
02/08	Houston Dynamo USA MLS	0-0	0-2	2	3	L
26/07	Los Angeles FC USA MLS	0-3	0-4	1	2	L
23/07	Minnesota United USA MLS	1-0	2-1	3	5	W
17/07	St. Louis City SC USA MLS	1-2	2-3	6	3	L
24/05	New York Red Bulls USA MLS	0-2	1-2	6	3	L
17/05	Austin FC USA MLS	0-1	2-1	7	7	W
14/05	LA Galaxy USA MLS	2-0	3-1	4	3	W
10/05	Portland Timbers USA MLS	0-4	0-6	4	6	L
02/05	Seattle Sounders USA MLS	1-1	1-1	4	2	D
26/04	Chicago Fire USA MLS	0-0	0-5	2	1	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Colorado Rapids vs Sporting Kansas City?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Colorado Rapids win (63%). Probabilities: Colorado Rapids 63%, draw 21%, Sporting Kansas City 16%.

How many goals are expected in Colorado Rapids vs Sporting Kansas City?

The model expects 3.27 goals (Colorado Rapids 2.21 · Sporting Kansas City 1.06), with a 50% chance of over 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Colorado Rapids vs Sporting Kansas City?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.