Football · USA MLS · 16/08, 03:30

Prediction: Real Salt Lake vs Minnesota United

Team pages: Real Salt Lake · Minnesota United

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3Total

Real Salt Lake1.89

Minnesota United1.11

1X2

55% 24% 21%

Real Salt Lake Draw Minnesota United

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 58% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Real Salt Lake 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

LWWDWLLDDW

Minnesota United 1-5-4 (W-D-L)

WDLLDLDDLD

Head-to-head

Real Salt Lake 0–4–2 Minnesota United (6 last)

Minnesota United1-1Real Salt Lake
Real Salt Lake1-3Minnesota United
Minnesota United2-0Real Salt Lake
Real Salt Lake1-1Minnesota United
Minnesota United1-1Real Salt Lake
Real Salt Lake0-0Minnesota United

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Real Salt Lake 1520 · Minnesota United 1469

	Real Salt Lake	Draw	Minnesota United
Our model	54%	24%	21%
Market	55%	24%	21%

Estimated total (ours) 3 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 58%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Real Salt Lake (rating 1520 vs 1469).
H2H favours Minnesota United: 2-4-0.
High corners: 11.2 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Real Salt Lake	Minnesota United
Goals for / against (FT)	1.9 / 1.3	1 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.6	0.3 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/40/20%	10/30/60%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.9 / 4.7	3 / 6.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.2 / 0.1	4.3 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.70

X3.90

24.33

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.90

2 (+0.75)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 31.98

Under 31.82

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 2.75

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:40

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.70 → 1.70	Pinn 1.83 ★
X	3.90 → 3.90	Bet365 3.90
2	4.33 → 4.33	Pinn 4.47

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.5% Pinnacle margin 5.2%

Time*	1	X	2
00:34 +6’	1.70	3.90	4.33

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
00:40	1.83	3.56	4.47

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Real Salt Lake 0–4–2 Minnesota United

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Date	Home	Score	Away
24/05/26 USA MLS	Minnesota United	1-1 HT 0-1	Real Salt Lake
24/08/25 USA MLS	Real Salt Lake	1-3 HT 1-2	Minnesota United
30/03/25 USA MLS	Minnesota United	2-0 HT 1-0	Real Salt Lake
29/01/25 World Club Friendlies	Real Salt Lake	1-1	Minnesota United
03/11/24 USA MLS Play-Offs	Minnesota United	1-1 HT 0-0	Real Salt Lake
30/10/24 USA MLS Play-Offs	Real Salt Lake	0-0 HT 0-0	Minnesota United

Standings · USA MLS · MLS 2026, Western Conference

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Vancouver Whitecaps	17	10	4	3	38	17	34
2	Los Angeles FC	19	10	4	5	35	19	34
3	San Jose Earthquakes	18	10	3	5	37	24	33
4	Houston Dynamo	18	10	2	6	27	24	32
5	Real Salt Lake	17	8	3	6	29	25	27
6	FC Dallas	18	7	6	5	32	25	27
7	St. Louis City SC	18	7	5	6	24	24	26
8	Portland Timbers	18	7	3	8	33	33	24
9	Seattle Sounders	17	7	3	7	20	22	24
10	Minnesota United	18	6	6	6	20	25	24
11	Colorado Rapids	18	7	1	10	27	25	22
12	LA Galaxy	19	5	7	7	24	29	22
13	San Diego FC	18	5	6	7	32	29	21
14	Austin FC	18	4	5	9	22	36	17
15	Sporting Kansas City	18	4	2	12	18	46	14

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Real Salt Lake	Minnesota United
Tigres UANL	1-1 D	0-0 D
Colorado Rapids	2-1 W	0-1 L
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 0 L	0 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Real Salt Lake (1 of 2 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Real Salt Lake

LWWDWLLDDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
09/08	Atlante Leagues Cup	1-0	4-0	1	4	W
05/08	Tigres UANL Leagues Cup	1-1	1-1	6	3	D
02/08	St. Louis City SC USA MLS	0-0	1-1	4	6	D
26/07	Portland Timbers USA MLS	1-0	1-2	5	4	L
23/07	Los Angeles FC USA MLS	0-2	1-3	12	0	L
16/07	Burnley World Club Friendlies	1-0	4-1	4	4	W
24/05	Minnesota United USA MLS	1-0	1-1	3	2	D
17/05	Colorado Rapids USA MLS	1-1	2-1	2	5	W
14/05	Houston Dynamo USA MLS	0-0	3-0	4	1	W
10/05	FC Dallas USA MLS	0-2	1-3	6	4	L

Minnesota United

WDLLDLDDLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/08	Tigres UANL Leagues Cup	0-0	0-0	7	4	D
05/08	Juarez FC Leagues Cup	1-2	1-2	8	4	L
02/08	San Diego FC USA MLS	1-0	1-1	8	2	D
26/07	Vancouver Whitecaps USA MLS	0-0	0-0	5	3	D
23/07	Sporting Kansas City USA MLS	0-1	1-2	6	5	L
24/05	Real Salt Lake USA MLS	0-1	1-1	6	2	D
17/05	New England Revolution USA MLS	1-1	1-2	11	3	L
14/05	Colorado Rapids USA MLS	0-1	0-1	5	9	L
11/05	Austin FC USA MLS	0-1	2-2	3	7	D
03/05	Columbus Crew USA MLS	0-1	3-2	6	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Real Salt Lake vs Minnesota United?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Real Salt Lake win (55%). Probabilities: Real Salt Lake 55%, draw 24%, Minnesota United 21%.

How many goals are expected in Real Salt Lake vs Minnesota United?

The model expects 3 goals (Real Salt Lake 1.89 · Minnesota United 1.11), with a 53% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Real Salt Lake vs Minnesota United?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.