Football · USA MLS · 16/08, 04:30

Prediction: Los Angeles FC vs San Diego FC

Team pages: Los Angeles FC · San Diego FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.54Total

Los Angeles FC2.33

San Diego FC1.2

1X2

62% 21% 18%

Los Angeles FC Draw San Diego FC

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

2-1

Recent form · 10 last

Los Angeles FC 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

LLLWWWWDDW

San Diego FC 2-4-4 (W-D-L)

LDDWDLLWDL

Head-to-head

Los Angeles FC 0–1–2 San Diego FC (3 last)

San Diego FC2-2Los Angeles FC
Los Angeles FC1-2San Diego FC
San Diego FC3-2Los Angeles FC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Los Angeles FC 1519 · San Diego FC 1488

	Los Angeles FC	Draw	San Diego FC
Our model	62%	21%	18%
Market	62%	21%	18%

Estimated total (ours) 3.54 goals · Bet365 line 3.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 72%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours San Diego FC: 2-1-0.
Cards-heavy: 6.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Los Angeles FC	San Diego FC
Goals for / against (FT)	1.8 / 1.2	1.7 / 1.7
Goals for / against (HT)	1.1 / 0.6	0.6 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/30/30%	30/40/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.7 / 5.6	2.5 / 4.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.1 / 0	3.6 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.50

X4.50

25.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)1.77

2 (+1)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 3.52.00

Under 3.51.80

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 3.2

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:40

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.50 → 1.50	Pinn 1.61 ★
X	4.50 → 4.50	Bet365 4.50
2	5.25 → 5.25	Bet365 5.25

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.9% Pinnacle margin 5.5%

Time*	1	X	2
00:40	1.50	4.50	5.25

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
00:40 +1’	1.61	4.49	4.76

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Los Angeles FC 0–1–2 San Diego FC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
03/05/26 USA MLS	San Diego FC	2-2 HT 1-0	Los Angeles FC
01/09/25 USA MLS	Los Angeles FC	1-2 HT 1-1	San Diego FC
30/03/25 USA MLS	San Diego FC	3-2 HT 3-2	Los Angeles FC

Standings · USA MLS · MLS 2026, Western Conference

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Vancouver Whitecaps	17	10	4	3	38	17	34
2	Los Angeles FC	19	10	4	5	35	19	34
3	San Jose Earthquakes	18	10	3	5	37	24	33
4	Houston Dynamo	18	10	2	6	27	24	32
5	Real Salt Lake	17	8	3	6	29	25	27
6	FC Dallas	18	7	6	5	32	25	27
7	St. Louis City SC	18	7	5	6	24	24	26
8	Portland Timbers	18	7	3	8	33	33	24
9	Seattle Sounders	17	7	3	7	20	22	24
10	Minnesota United	18	6	6	6	20	25	24
11	Colorado Rapids	18	7	1	10	27	25	22
12	LA Galaxy	19	5	7	7	24	29	22
13	San Diego FC	18	5	6	7	32	29	21
14	Austin FC	18	4	5	9	22	36	17
15	Sporting Kansas City	18	4	2	12	18	46	14

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Los Angeles FC	San Diego FC
Vancouver Whitecaps	1-1 D	2-4 L
Seattle Sounders	1-0 W	1-1 D
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 0 L	0 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Los Angeles FC (2 of 2 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Los Angeles FC

LLLWWWWDDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
09/08	Toluca Leagues Cup	0-0	1-0	2	3	W
06/08	Chivas Guadalajara Leagues Cup	1-1	1-1	2	3	D
02/08	Vancouver Whitecaps USA MLS	1-0	1-1	1	2	D
26/07	Sporting Kansas City USA MLS	3-0	4-0	5	2	W
23/07	Real Salt Lake USA MLS	2-0	3-1	7	0	W
18/07	LA Galaxy USA MLS	2-0	3-0	3	3	W
25/05	Seattle Sounders USA MLS	0-0	1-0	7	0	W
18/05	Nashville SC USA MLS	1-2	2-3	11	5	L
14/05	St. Louis City SC USA MLS	0-1	1-2	8	6	L
11/05	Houston Dynamo USA MLS	1-2	1-4	10	7	L

San Diego FC

LDDWDLLWDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/08	Club America Leagues Cup	0-3	1-3	3	2	L
02/08	Minnesota United USA MLS	0-1	1-1	4	2	D
26/07	FC Dallas USA MLS	0-0	1-0	9	2	W
23/07	Colorado Rapids USA MLS	0-0	0-1	3	7	L
24/05	Vancouver Whitecaps USA MLS	0-2	2-4	2	6	L
17/05	FC Cincinnati USA MLS	1-1	3-3	7	4	D
14/05	Austin FC USA MLS	2-0	5-0	6	1	W
10/05	Seattle Sounders USA MLS	1-0	1-1	2	5	D
03/05	Los Angeles FC USA MLS	1-0	2-2	2	5	D
26/04	Portland Timbers USA MLS	1-1	1-2	6	3	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Los Angeles FC vs San Diego FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Los Angeles FC win (62%). Probabilities: Los Angeles FC 62%, draw 21%, San Diego FC 18%.

How many goals are expected in Los Angeles FC vs San Diego FC?

The model expects 3.54 goals (Los Angeles FC 2.33 · San Diego FC 1.2), with a 53% chance of under 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Los Angeles FC vs San Diego FC?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.