Football · USA MLS · 16/08, 04:30

Prediction: San Jose Earthquakes vs St. Louis City SC

Team pages: San Jose Earthquakes · St. Louis City SC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.32Total

San Jose Earthquakes1.92

St. Louis City SC1.39

1X2

49% 25% 26%

San Jose Earthquakes Draw St. Louis City SC

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 58% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

San Jose Earthquakes 1-3-6 (W-D-L)

DDLLLWLLDL

St. Louis City SC 6-3-1 (W-D-L)

LWWDDWWWWD

Head-to-head

San Jose Earthquakes 2–4 St. Louis City SC (6 last)

St. Louis City SC2-3San Jose Earthquakes
San Jose Earthquakes1-3St. Louis City SC
St. Louis City SC2-1San Jose Earthquakes
St. Louis City SC1-2San Jose Earthquakes
San Jose Earthquakes1-2St. Louis City SC
St. Louis City SC2-0San Jose Earthquakes

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · San Jose Earthquakes 1441 · St. Louis City SC 1568

	San Jose Earthquakes	Draw	St. Louis City SC
Our model	49%	24%	27%
Market	48%	25%	26%

Estimated total (ours) 3.32 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 68%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours St. Louis City SC (rating 1441 vs 1568).
H2H favours St. Louis City SC: 4-0-2.
High corners: 11.9 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 9.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	San Jose Earthquakes	St. Louis City SC
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 2.2	1.7 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 1.2	0.8 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/40/40%	50/40/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.4 / 6.6	2.2 / 5.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.6 / 0	5.2 / 0.6

Odds Bet365

11.95

X3.70

23.60

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.95

2 (+0.5)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 31.77

Under 32.02

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 3.1

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:40

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.95 → 1.95	Pinn 2.06
X	3.70 → 3.70	Pinn 3.95 ★
2	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 6.1% Pinnacle margin 5.1%

Time*	1	X	2
00:40 +1’	1.95	3.70	3.60

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
00:40	2.06	3.95	3.20

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · San Jose Earthquakes 2–0–4 St. Louis City SC

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
26/04/26 USA MLS	St. Louis City SC	2-3 HT 0-1	San Jose Earthquakes
21/09/25 USA MLS	San Jose Earthquakes	1-3 HT 1-3	St. Louis City SC
31/05/25 USA MLS	St. Louis City SC	2-1 HT 1-0	San Jose Earthquakes
15/02/25 World Club Friendlies	St. Louis City SC	1-2	San Jose Earthquakes
22/09/24 USA MLS	San Jose Earthquakes	1-2 HT 1-2	St. Louis City SC
04/07/24 USA MLS	St. Louis City SC	2-0 HT 2-0	San Jose Earthquakes

Standings · USA MLS · MLS 2026, Western Conference

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Vancouver Whitecaps	17	10	4	3	38	17	34
2	Los Angeles FC	19	10	4	5	35	19	34
3	San Jose Earthquakes	18	10	3	5	37	24	33
4	Houston Dynamo	18	10	2	6	27	24	32
5	Real Salt Lake	17	8	3	6	29	25	27
6	FC Dallas	18	7	6	5	32	25	27
7	St. Louis City SC	18	7	5	6	24	24	26
8	Portland Timbers	18	7	3	8	33	33	24
9	Seattle Sounders	17	7	3	7	20	22	24
10	Minnesota United	18	6	6	6	20	25	24
11	Colorado Rapids	18	7	1	10	27	25	22
12	LA Galaxy	19	5	7	7	24	29	22
13	San Diego FC	18	5	6	7	32	29	21
14	Austin FC	18	4	5	9	22	36	17
15	Sporting Kansas City	18	4	2	12	18	46	14

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	San Jose Earthquakes	St. Louis City SC
LA Galaxy	1-1 D	3-1 W
Colorado Rapids	0-2 L	1-0 W
Record vs common	0 W 1 D 1 L	2 W 0 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: St. Louis City SC (2 of 2 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

San Jose Earthquakes

DDLLLWLLDL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
02/08	FC Cincinnati USA MLS	1-1	2-4	6	3	L
26/07	LA Galaxy USA MLS	0-1	1-1	6	6	D
23/07	Orlando City SC USA MLS	0-2	0-4	3	6	L
04/07	Tijuana Club Friendly List	1-2	1-2	–	–	L
24/05	Portland Timbers USA MLS	3-1	3-1	6	5	W
21/05	Colorado Rapids USA US Open Cup	0-2	0-2	9	5	L
17/05	FC Dallas USA MLS	1-1	2-3	12	6	L
14/05	Seattle Sounders USA MLS	1-1	2-3	6	2	L
10/05	Vancouver Whitecaps USA MLS	1-0	1-1	2	4	D
02/05	Toronto FC USA MLS	1-1	1-1	9	4	D

St. Louis City SC

LWWDDWWWWD

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
02/08	Real Salt Lake USA MLS	0-0	1-1	9	6	D
26/07	Colorado Rapids USA MLS	0-0	1-0	10	4	W
23/07	LA Galaxy USA MLS	2-0	3-1	7	5	W
17/07	Sporting Kansas City USA MLS	2-1	3-2	5	3	W
23/05	Austin FC USA MLS	1-0	3-0	2	2	W
20/05	Houston Dynamo USA US Open Cup	1-2	2-2	3	8	D
17/05	DC United USA MLS	0-0	1-1	8	8	D
14/05	Los Angeles FC USA MLS	1-0	2-1	2	6	W
10/05	Colorado Rapids USA MLS	1-0	1-0	1	10	W
03/05	Austin FC USA MLS	0-0	0-2	6	6	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in San Jose Earthquakes vs St. Louis City SC?

According to our model, the most likely result is a San Jose Earthquakes win (49%). Probabilities: San Jose Earthquakes 49%, draw 25%, St. Louis City SC 26%.

How many goals are expected in San Jose Earthquakes vs St. Louis City SC?

The model expects 3.32 goals (San Jose Earthquakes 1.92 · St. Louis City SC 1.39), with a 54% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in San Jose Earthquakes vs St. Louis City SC?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.