Football · USA MLS · 17/08, 00:00

Prediction: Chicago Fire vs Portland Timbers

Team pages: Chicago Fire · Portland Timbers

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.93Total

Chicago Fire2.52

Portland Timbers1.41

1X2

61% 20% 19%

Chicago Fire Draw Portland Timbers

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 60%

Most likely score

2-1

Recent form · 10 last

Chicago Fire 5-0-5 (W-D-L)

LLLWWWLLWW

Portland Timbers 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

LWDLLWDWWW

Head-to-head

Chicago Fire 2–2–2 Portland Timbers (6 last)

Chicago Fire3-4Portland Timbers
Portland Timbers0-0Chicago Fire
Portland Timbers1-2Chicago Fire
Portland Timbers1-2Chicago Fire
Portland Timbers3-2Chicago Fire
Chicago Fire2-2Portland Timbers

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Chicago Fire 1506 · Portland Timbers 1548

	Chicago Fire	Draw	Portland Timbers
Our model	61%	20%	19%
Market	60%	21%	19%

Estimated total (ours) 3.93 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 79%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Portland Timbers (rating 1506 vs 1548).
High corners: 11.5 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Chicago Fire	Portland Timbers
Goals for / against (FT)	1.8 / 1.7	2.5 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 1	1.2 / 1.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/50/30%	30/10/60%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.9 / 5.5	3.3 / 6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.4 / 0.1	3.7 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.55

X4.50

25.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)1.90

2 (+1)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.95

Under 3.51.85

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 3.8

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:52

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.55 → 1.55	Bet365 1.55
X	4.50 → 4.50	Pinn 4.75 ★
2	5.00 → 5.00	Pinn 5.25

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 6.7% Pinnacle margin 5.6%

Time*	1	X	2
00:52 +1’	1.55	4.50	5.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
00:51 +1’	1.53	4.75	5.25

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Chicago Fire 2–2–2 Portland Timbers

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Date	Home	Score	Away
14/02/26 America Friendlies	Chicago Fire	3-4	Portland Timbers
08/02/25 World Club Friendlies	Portland Timbers	0-0	Chicago Fire
17/02/24 World Club Friendlies	Portland Timbers	1-2	Chicago Fire
22/06/23 USA MLS	Portland Timbers	1-2 HT 1-1	Chicago Fire
15/08/19 USA MLS	Portland Timbers	3-2 HT 2-0	Chicago Fire
01/04/18 USA MLS	Chicago Fire	2-2 HT 0-1	Portland Timbers

Standings · USA MLS · MLS 2026, Western Conference

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Vancouver Whitecaps	17	10	4	3	38	17	34
2	Los Angeles FC	19	10	4	5	35	19	34
3	San Jose Earthquakes	18	10	3	5	37	24	33
4	Houston Dynamo	18	10	2	6	27	24	32
5	Real Salt Lake	17	8	3	6	29	25	27
6	FC Dallas	18	7	6	5	32	25	27
7	St. Louis City SC	18	7	5	6	24	24	26
8	Portland Timbers	18	7	3	8	33	33	24
9	Seattle Sounders	17	7	3	7	20	22	24
10	Minnesota United	18	6	6	6	20	25	24
11	Colorado Rapids	18	7	1	10	27	25	22
12	LA Galaxy	19	5	7	7	24	29	22
13	San Diego FC	18	5	6	7	32	29	21
14	Austin FC	18	4	5	9	22	36	17
15	Sporting Kansas City	18	4	2	12	18	46	14

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Chicago Fire	Portland Timbers
Inter Miami CF	2-3 L	0-2 L
CF Montreal	2-0 W	2-2 D
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 1 L	0 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Chicago Fire (2 of 2 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Chicago Fire

LLLWWWLLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/08	Necaxa Leagues Cup	1-0	2-0	6	3	W
02/08	Charlotte FC USA MLS	1-1	2-1	8	3	W
26/07	New York City FC USA MLS	1-3	1-3	2	4	L
23/07	Inter Miami CF USA MLS	1-1	2-3	4	2	L
24/05	Toronto FC USA MLS	1-1	2-1	3	7	W
16/05	CF Montreal USA MLS	1-0	2-0	3	7	W
14/05	DC United USA MLS	0-1	3-1	8	5	W
09/05	New York Red Bulls USA MLS	0-1	1-3	6	4	L
03/05	FC Cincinnati USA MLS	2-2	2-3	10	5	L
30/04	St. Louis City SC USA US Open Cup	0-0	1-2	5	5	L

Portland Timbers

LWDLLWDWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/08	Puebla Leagues Cup	4-1	5-2	5	2	W
02/08	Seattle Sounders USA MLS	1-1	2-1	4	4	W
26/07	Real Salt Lake USA MLS	0-1	2-1	14	4	W
23/07	FC Dallas USA MLS	0-1	2-2	5	5	D
17/07	Seattle Sounders USA MLS	1-0	5-1	8	2	W
24/05	San Jose Earthquakes USA MLS	1-3	1-3	4	5	L
18/05	Inter Miami CF USA MLS	0-2	0-2	5	4	L
14/05	CF Montreal USA MLS	1-2	2-2	9	3	D
10/05	Sporting Kansas City USA MLS	4-0	6-0	4	6	W
02/05	Real Salt Lake USA MLS	0-2	0-2	2	3	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Chicago Fire vs Portland Timbers?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Chicago Fire win (61%). Probabilities: Chicago Fire 61%, draw 20%, Portland Timbers 19%.

How many goals are expected in Chicago Fire vs Portland Timbers?

The model expects 3.93 goals (Chicago Fire 2.52 · Portland Timbers 1.41), with a 52% chance of over 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Chicago Fire vs Portland Timbers?

The model gives a 60% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.