Football · USA MLS · 17/08, 00:00

Prediction: New York City FC vs Philadelphia Union

Team pages: New York City FC · Philadelphia Union

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.77Total

New York City FC1.54

Philadelphia Union1.23

1X2

44% 27% 29%

New York City FC Draw Philadelphia Union

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

New York City FC 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

LWWDLLWWDW

Philadelphia Union 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

LDLLDLWWWL

Head-to-head

New York City FC 4–2 Philadelphia Union (6 last)

Philadelphia Union1-2New York City FC
Philadelphia Union0-1New York City FC
Philadelphia Union1-0New York City FC
New York City FC1-0Philadelphia Union
New York City FC1-5Philadelphia Union
Philadelphia Union1-2New York City FC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · New York City FC 1546 · Philadelphia Union 1468

	New York City FC	Draw	Philadelphia Union
Our model	43%	27%	29%
Market	44%	27%	29%

Estimated total (ours) 2.77 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 62%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours New York City FC (rating 1546 vs 1468).
H2H favours New York City FC: 4-0-2.
Cards-heavy: 7.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	New York City FC	Philadelphia Union
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 0.9	1.6 / 1.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.5	0.7 / 1.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/40/20%	20/30/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	0.7 / 2.8	3.2 / 6.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.3 / 0	3.6 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.15

X3.50

23.20

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.85

2 (+0.25)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.80

Under 2.752.00

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 2.9

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:52

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.15 → 2.15	Bet365 2.15
X	3.50 → 3.50	Pinn 3.91 ★
2	3.20 → 3.20	Bet365 3.20

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 6.3% Pinnacle margin 5.1%

Time*	1	X	2
00:46 +6’	2.15	3.50	3.20

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
00:51 +1’	2.14	3.91	3.05

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · New York City FC 4–0–2 Philadelphia Union

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
01/03/26 USA MLS	Philadelphia Union	1-2 HT 0-1	New York City FC
24/11/25 USA MLS	Philadelphia Union	0-1 HT 0-1	New York City FC
05/10/25 USA MLS	Philadelphia Union	1-0 HT 1-0	New York City FC
13/04/25 USA MLS	New York City FC	1-0 HT 0-0	Philadelphia Union
19/09/24 USA MLS	New York City FC	1-5 HT 1-3	Philadelphia Union
16/05/24 USA MLS	Philadelphia Union	1-2 HT 0-2	New York City FC

Standings · USA MLS · MLS 2026, Eastern Conference

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Nashville SC	18	12	4	2	35	14	40
2	Inter Miami CF	18	11	5	2	45	32	38
3	New England Revolution	18	9	3	6	28	23	30
4	Chicago Fire	17	9	2	6	32	23	29
5	New York City FC	18	7	5	6	31	24	26
6	FC Cincinnati	18	7	5	6	45	44	26
7	Charlotte FC	18	7	4	7	29	27	25
8	New York Red Bulls	18	7	4	7	29	39	25
9	DC United	18	5	8	5	26	29	23
10	Orlando City SC	18	6	2	10	30	47	20
11	Columbus Crew	18	5	5	8	26	28	20
12	Toronto FC	18	3	8	7	24	32	17
13	Philadelphia Union	18	4	4	10	25	33	16
14	CF Montreal	18	4	4	10	24	35	16
15	Atlanta United	18	3	3	12	19	33	12

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	New York City FC	Philadelphia Union
Columbus Crew	2-1 W	1-1 D
Nashville SC	1-2 L	0-0 D
New York Red Bulls	1-1 D	3-1 W
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 1 L	1 W 2 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Philadelphia Union (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

New York City FC

LWWDLLWWDW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/08	Santos Laguna Leagues Cup	0-0	2-0	3	2	W
01/08	Toronto FC USA MLS	1-1	1-1	3	6	D
26/07	Chicago Fire USA MLS	3-1	3-1	1	4	W
23/07	Columbus Crew USA MLS	1-0	2-1	0	5	W
24/05	Nashville SC USA MLS	1-1	1-2	3	3	L
21/05	Columbus Crew USA US Open Cup	0-0	0-1	4	1	L
17/05	New York Red Bulls USA MLS	0-1	1-1	3	7	D
14/05	Charlotte FC USA MLS	1-0	1-0	2	9	W
10/05	Columbus Crew USA MLS	2-0	3-0	3	1	W
03/05	DC United USA MLS	0-1	0-2	6	5	L

Philadelphia Union

LDLLDLWWWL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/08	Cruz Azul Leagues Cup	0-1	0-1	7	3	L
02/08	Atlanta United USA MLS	0-1	3-2	12	6	W
26/07	Seattle Sounders USA MLS	1-0	1-0	6	1	W
23/07	New York Red Bulls USA MLS	1-1	3-1	8	3	W
25/05	Inter Miami CF USA MLS	4-4	4-6	2	9	L
17/05	Columbus Crew USA MLS	0-1	1-1	4	4	D
14/05	Orlando City SC USA MLS	0-2	3-4	10	4	L
10/05	New England Revolution USA MLS	1-0	1-2	3	3	L
03/05	Nashville SC USA MLS	0-0	0-0	5	2	D
26/04	Columbus Crew USA MLS	0-2	0-2	4	3	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in New York City FC vs Philadelphia Union?

According to our model, the most likely result is a New York City FC win (44%). Probabilities: New York City FC 44%, draw 27%, Philadelphia Union 29%.

How many goals are expected in New York City FC vs Philadelphia Union?

The model expects 2.77 goals (New York City FC 1.54 · Philadelphia Union 1.23), with a 51% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in New York City FC vs Philadelphia Union?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.