Basketball · El Salvador Liga Mayor · 03/11, 01:00

Prediction: Ahuachapan vs CD Aguila

Team pages: Ahuachapan · CD Aguila

Prediction summary

Estimated points

172.1Total

Ahuachapan82.6

CD Aguila89.5

1X2

31% 69%

Ahuachapan CD Aguila

Recent form · 10 last

Ahuachapan 1-0-9 (W-D-L)

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CD Aguila 3-0-7 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Ahuachapan 0–1 CD Aguila (1 last)

CD Aguila95-56Ahuachapan

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Ahuachapan 1387 · CD Aguila 1464

	Ahuachapan	CD Aguila
Our model	52%	48%
Market	26%	74%

Estimated total (ours) 172.1 points · Bet365 line 166.5 · +5.6

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

Estimated points172.1Ahuachapan 82.6 · CD Aguila 89.5

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours CD Aguila (rating 1387 vs 1464).
CD Aguila is a clear favourite (69% market).

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

	Ahuachapan	CD Aguila
Points F\|A (Last 10)	83.3 / 94.3	77.4 / 84.3
Points F\|A (Last 5)	80 / 97	79.6 / 89.2
Est. result	83	90

Est. total172.1

Line O/U166.5

Diff.5.6

The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.

Odds Bet365

13.60

21.26

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+8.5)1.83

2 (-8.5)1.83

Line ⓘ

Over 166.51.83

Under 166.51.83

Diff.: 3.15 · Est. total: 169.65

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 20:47

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.60 → 3.60	Pinn 3.61 ★
2	1.26 → 1.26	Bet365 1.26

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7% Pinnacle margin 14.6%

Time*	1	2
20:41 +6’	3.60	1.26

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	2
18:52 +1’	3.61	1.15

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Ahuachapan 0–0–1 CD Aguila

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Date	Home	Score	Away
13/09/26 El Salvador Liga Mayor	CD Aguila	95-56	Ahuachapan

Standings · El Salvador Liga Mayor · LMB 2026, Clausura

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Isidro Metapan	18	17	1	1693	1344	35
2	Santa Ana BC	18	14	4	1560	1435	32
3	A.Lobos BKB	18	13	5	1387	1269	31
4	Cojutepeque	18	10	8	1394	1274	28
5	Salvadorenos	18	9	9	1408	1372	27
6	San Salvador	18	8	10	1538	1565	26
7	CD Aguila	17	8	9	1354	1365	25
8	Santa Tecla	18	7	11	1397	1454	25
9	Santiagueno	17	5	12	1283	1543	22
10	Brujos Izalco	17	5	12	1336	1420	22
11	Ahuachapan	17	1	16	1316	1625	18

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Ahuachapan	CD Aguila
Santa Ana BC	82-98 L	80-77 W
Salvadorenos	78-95 L	66-81 L
A.Lobos BKB	84-99 L	52-68 L
Cojutepeque	78-93 L	68-87 L
Isidro Metapan	78-100 L	76-116 L
Brujos Izalco	107-123 L	68-76 L
Santa Tecla	73-82 L	85-70 W
Santiagueno	87-91 L	126-106 W
Record vs common	0 W 0 D 8 L	3 W 0 D 5 L

Better against common opponents: CD Aguila (5 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Ahuachapan

LWLLLLLLLL

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
28/10	Santa Ana BC El Salvador Liga Mayor	82-98	L
26/10	Salvadorenos El Salvador Liga Mayor	78-95	L
23/10	A.Lobos BKB El Salvador Liga Mayor	84-99	L
19/10	Cojutepeque El Salvador Liga Mayor	78-93	L
15/10	Isidro Metapan El Salvador Liga Mayor	78-100	L
11/10	Brujos Izalco El Salvador Liga Mayor	107-123	L
07/10	Santa Tecla El Salvador Liga Mayor	73-82	L
05/10	Santiagueno El Salvador Liga Mayor	87-91	L
30/09	Brujos Izalco El Salvador Liga Mayor	92-86	W
28/09	Salvadorenos El Salvador Liga Mayor	74-76	L

CD Aguila

LWLLLLWLWL

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
28/10	Cojutepeque El Salvador Liga Mayor	68-87	L
25/10	Santa Ana BC El Salvador Liga Mayor	80-77	W
18/10	Isidro Metapan El Salvador Liga Mayor	76-116	L
15/10	Santa Tecla El Salvador Liga Mayor	85-70	W
13/10	San Salvador El Salvador Liga Mayor	89-96	L
11/10	A.Lobos BKB El Salvador Liga Mayor	52-68	L
08/10	Salvadorenos El Salvador Liga Mayor	66-81	L
04/10	Brujos Izalco El Salvador Liga Mayor	68-76	L
03/10	Santiagueno El Salvador Liga Mayor	126-106	W
27/09	Cojutepeque El Salvador Liga Mayor	64-66	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Ahuachapan vs CD Aguila?

Our model gives 69% to CD Aguila.

How many points are expected in Ahuachapan vs CD Aguila?

The model estimates 172.1 total points (Ahuachapan 82.6 · CD Aguila 89.5).