Basketball · El Salvador Liga Mayor · 08/11, 02:00

Prediction: Santiagueno vs Ahuachapan

Team pages: Santiagueno · Ahuachapan

Prediction summary

Estimated points

173.3Total

Santiagueno84

Ahuachapan89.4

1X2

35% 65%

Santiagueno Ahuachapan

Markets

Under 180.5 points 74%

Recent form · 10 last

Santiagueno 1-0-9 (W-D-L)

WLLLLLLLLL

Ahuachapan 0-0-10 (W-D-L)

LLLLLLLLLL

Head-to-head

Santiagueno 5–1 Ahuachapan (6 last)

Ahuachapan87-91Santiagueno
Santiagueno77-67Ahuachapan
Ahuachapan74-86Santiagueno
Ahuachapan95-90Santiagueno
Santiagueno93-78Ahuachapan
Santiagueno102-80Ahuachapan

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Santiagueno 1412 · Ahuachapan 1358

	Santiagueno	Ahuachapan
Our model	70%	30%
Market	26%	74%

Estimated total (ours) 173.3 points · Bet365 line 180.5 · -7.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

Estimated points173.3Santiagueno 84 · Ahuachapan 89.4

Over / Under 180.5Under · 74%recent trend · ~173.4 pts · strength 7

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Santiagueno (rating 1412 vs 1358).
Ahuachapan is a clear favourite (65% market).
H2H favours Santiagueno: 5-1.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

	Santiagueno	Ahuachapan
Points F\|A (Last 10)	69.5 / 93.1	85.8 / 100.1
Points F\|A (Last 5)	70.6 / 102	87 / 102.4
Est. result	84	89

Est. total173.3

Line O/U180.5

Diff.7.2

Over / Under26% / 74%

The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.

Odds Bet365

13.60

21.26

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+8.5)1.83

2 (-8.5)1.83

Line ⓘ

Over 180.51.83

Under 180.51.83

Diff.: 6.25 · Est. total: 174.25

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:04

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
2	1.26 → 1.26	Bet365 1.26

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7% Pinnacle margin 14.1%

Time*	1	2
14:48 +17’	3.60	1.26

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	2
15:03 +1’	3.33	1.19

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Santiagueno 5–0–1 Ahuachapan

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Date	Home	Score	Away
05/10/26 El Salvador Liga Mayor	Ahuachapan	87-91	Santiagueno
17/05/26 El Salvador Liga Mayor	Santiagueno	77-67	Ahuachapan
07/04/26 El Salvador Liga Mayor	Ahuachapan	74-86	Santiagueno
19/10/25 El Salvador Liga Mayor	Ahuachapan	95-90	Santiagueno
21/09/25 El Salvador Liga Mayor	Santiagueno	93-78	Ahuachapan
26/05/25 El Salvador Liga Mayor	Santiagueno	102-80	Ahuachapan

Standings · El Salvador Liga Mayor · LMB 2026, Clausura

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Isidro Metapan	19	18	1	1777	1424	37
2	A.Lobos BKB	20	14	6	1562	1412	34
3	Santa Ana BC	19	15	4	1635	1504	34
4	Cojutepeque	19	11	8	1470	1343	30
5	Salvadorenos	20	9	11	1556	1562	29
6	CD Aguila	19	10	9	1568	1520	29
7	San Salvador	19	9	10	1653	1667	28
8	Santa Tecla	20	7	13	1547	1620	27
9	Brujos Izalco	19	7	12	1544	1582	26
10	Santiagueno	19	5	14	1430	1770	24
11	Ahuachapan	19	1	18	1507	1845	20

Common opponents 9 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Santiagueno	Ahuachapan
CD Aguila	66-109 L	89-105 L
Brujos Izalco	81-118 L	107-123 L
Santa Tecla	66-97 L	73-82 L
A.Lobos BKB	79-90 L	84-99 L
Cojutepeque	61-96 L	78-93 L
Santa Ana BC	60-76 L	82-98 L
Salvadorenos	69-75 L	78-95 L
Isidro Metapan	48-89 L	78-100 L
San Salvador	74-94 L	102-115 L
Record vs common	0 W 0 D 9 L	0 W 0 D 9 L

Better against common opponents: Ahuachapan (6 of 9 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Santiagueno

WLLLLLLLLL

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
05/11	CD Aguila El Salvador Liga Mayor	66-109	L
03/11	Brujos Izalco El Salvador Liga Mayor	81-118	L
27/10	Santa Tecla El Salvador Liga Mayor	66-97	L
25/10	A.Lobos BKB El Salvador Liga Mayor	79-90	L
22/10	Cojutepeque El Salvador Liga Mayor	61-96	L
18/10	Santa Ana BC El Salvador Liga Mayor	60-76	L
16/10	Salvadorenos El Salvador Liga Mayor	69-75	L
11/10	Isidro Metapan El Salvador Liga Mayor	48-89	L
10/10	San Salvador El Salvador Liga Mayor	74-94	L
05/10	Ahuachapan El Salvador Liga Mayor	91-87	W

Ahuachapan

LLLLLLLLLL

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
06/11	San Salvador El Salvador Liga Mayor	102-115	L
03/11	CD Aguila El Salvador Liga Mayor	89-105	L
28/10	Santa Ana BC El Salvador Liga Mayor	82-98	L
26/10	Salvadorenos El Salvador Liga Mayor	78-95	L
23/10	A.Lobos BKB El Salvador Liga Mayor	84-99	L
19/10	Cojutepeque El Salvador Liga Mayor	78-93	L
15/10	Isidro Metapan El Salvador Liga Mayor	78-100	L
11/10	Brujos Izalco El Salvador Liga Mayor	107-123	L
07/10	Santa Tecla El Salvador Liga Mayor	73-82	L
05/10	Santiagueno El Salvador Liga Mayor	87-91	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Santiagueno vs Ahuachapan?

Our model gives 65% to Ahuachapan.

How many points are expected in Santiagueno vs Ahuachapan?

The model estimates 173.3 total points (Santiagueno 84 · Ahuachapan 89.4).

Over or under 180.5 points?

Recent history points to under 180.5 points (74%).