Basketball · El Salvador Liga Mayor · 23/10, 03:15
Prediction: Santa Tecla vs Isidro Metapan
Team pages: Santa Tecla · Isidro Metapan
Prediction summary
Estimated points
164.4Total
Santa Tecla75.2
Isidro Metapan89.1
1X2
Santa Tecla
Isidro Metapan
Markets
Under 166.5 points 67%
Recent form · 10 last
Santa Tecla
4-0-6 (W-D-L)
Isidro Metapan
10-0-0 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Santa Tecla
1–5
Isidro Metapan
(6 last)
- Isidro Metapan94-70Santa Tecla
- Isidro Metapan96-79Santa Tecla
- Santa Tecla74-82Isidro Metapan
- Isidro Metapan105-85Santa Tecla
- Isidro Metapan86-70Santa Tecla
- Santa Tecla83-81Isidro Metapan
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Santa Tecla 1438 · Isidro Metapan 1664
| Santa Tecla | Isidro Metapan | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 31% | 69% |
| Market | 12% | 88% |
Estimated total (ours)
164.4 points · Bet365 line 166.5 · -2.1
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
Estimated points164.4Santa Tecla 75.2 · Isidro Metapan 89.1
Over / Under 166.5Under · 67%recent trend · ~154.4 pts · strength 12
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Isidro Metapan (rating 1438 vs 1664).
- Isidro Metapan is a clear favourite (84% market).
- H2H favours Isidro Metapan: 5-1.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
| Santa Tecla | Isidro Metapan | |
|---|---|---|
| Points F|A (Last 10) | 77.7 / 80.8 | 99.3 / 76.2 |
| Points F|A (Last 5) | 79.2 / 83.2 | 99.4 / 71.8 |
| Est. result | 75 | 89 |
Est. total164.4
Line O/U166.5
Diff.2.1
Over / Under33% / 67%
The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.
Head-to-head (H2H) · Santa Tecla 1–0–5 Isidro Metapan
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30/09/26 El Salvador Liga Mayor | Isidro Metapan | 94-70 | Santa Tecla |
| 24/06/26 El Salvador Liga Mayor | Isidro Metapan | 96-79 | Santa Tecla |
| 22/06/26 El Salvador Liga Mayor | Santa Tecla | 74-82 | Isidro Metapan |
| 20/06/26 El Salvador Liga Mayor | Isidro Metapan | 105-85 | Santa Tecla |
| 22/05/26 El Salvador Liga Mayor | Isidro Metapan | 86-70 | Santa Tecla |
| 16/04/26 El Salvador Liga Mayor | Santa Tecla | 83-81 | Isidro Metapan |
Standings · El Salvador Liga Mayor · LMB 2026, Clausura
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| # | Team | P | W | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Isidro Metapan | 16 | 15 | 1 | 1514 | 1203 | 31 |
| 2 | Santa Ana BC | 16 | 13 | 3 | 1385 | 1273 | 29 |
| 3 | A.Lobos BKB | 16 | 11 | 5 | 1198 | 1106 | 27 |
| 4 | Cojutepeque | 16 | 9 | 7 | 1241 | 1113 | 25 |
| 5 | San Salvador | 17 | 8 | 9 | 1475 | 1494 | 25 |
| 6 | Salvadorenos | 16 | 7 | 9 | 1233 | 1219 | 23 |
| 7 | CD Aguila | 15 | 7 | 8 | 1206 | 1201 | 22 |
| 8 | Santa Tecla | 16 | 6 | 10 | 1225 | 1302 | 22 |
| 9 | Santiagueno | 15 | 5 | 10 | 1138 | 1356 | 20 |
| 10 | Brujos Izalco | 15 | 4 | 11 | 1190 | 1277 | 19 |
| 11 | Ahuachapan | 14 | 1 | 13 | 1072 | 1333 | 15 |
Common opponents 4 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Santa Tecla | Isidro Metapan |
|---|---|---|
| San Salvador | 95-99 L | 110-77 W |
| CD Aguila | 70-85 L | 116-76 W |
| A.Lobos BKB | 70-65 W | 77-61 W |
| Ahuachapan | 82-73 W | 100-78 W |
| Record vs common | 2 W 0 D 2 L | 4 W 0 D 0 L |
Better against common opponents: Isidro Metapan (4 of 4 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Santa Tecla
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| Date | Opponent | FT | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20/10 | Santa Ana BC El Salvador Liga Mayor |
78-89 | L |
| 17/10 | San Salvador El Salvador Liga Mayor |
95-99 | L |
| 15/10 | CD Aguila El Salvador Liga Mayor |
70-85 | L |
| 12/10 | Salvadorenos El Salvador Liga Mayor |
83-78 | W |
| 09/10 | A.Lobos BKB El Salvador Liga Mayor |
70-65 | W |
| 07/10 | Ahuachapan El Salvador Liga Mayor |
82-73 | W |
| 05/10 | San Salvador El Salvador Liga Mayor |
76-66 | W |
| 03/10 | Cojutepeque El Salvador Liga Mayor |
74-77 | L |
| 30/09 | Isidro Metapan El Salvador Liga Mayor |
70-94 | L |
| 26/09 | Salvadorenos El Salvador Liga Mayor |
79-82 | L |
Isidro Metapan
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| Date | Opponent | FT | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20/10 | San Salvador El Salvador Liga Mayor |
110-77 | W |
| 18/10 | CD Aguila El Salvador Liga Mayor |
116-76 | W |
| 15/10 | Ahuachapan El Salvador Liga Mayor |
100-78 | W |
| 13/10 | Brujos Izalco El Salvador Liga Mayor |
82-80 | W |
| 11/10 | Santiagueno El Salvador Liga Mayor |
89-48 | W |
| 07/10 | A.Lobos BKB El Salvador Liga Mayor |
77-61 | W |
| 01/10 | San Salvador El Salvador Liga Mayor |
100-94 | W |
| 30/09 | Santa Tecla El Salvador Liga Mayor |
94-70 | W |
| 27/09 | Santiagueno El Salvador Liga Mayor |
105-88 | W |
| 25/09 | Brujos Izalco El Salvador Liga Mayor |
120-90 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Santa Tecla vs Isidro Metapan?
Our model gives 84% to Isidro Metapan.
How many points are expected in Santa Tecla vs Isidro Metapan?
The model estimates 164.4 total points (Santa Tecla 75.2 · Isidro Metapan 89.1).
Over or under 166.5 points?
Recent history points to under 166.5 points (67%).