Basketball · China CBA · 19/10, 13:35

Prediction: Jiangsu Dragons vs Shenzhen Leopards

Team pages: Jiangsu Dragons · Shenzhen Leopards

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Prediction summary

Estimated points

180.7Total

Jiangsu Dragons88.2

Shenzhen Leopards92.5

1X2

38% 62%

Jiangsu Dragons Shenzhen Leopards

Recent form · 10 last

Jiangsu Dragons 3-0-7 (W-D-L)

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Shenzhen Leopards 5-0-5 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Jiangsu Dragons 1–5 Shenzhen Leopards (6 last)

Jiangsu Dragons83-72Shenzhen Leopards
Shenzhen Leopards93-88Jiangsu Dragons
Shenzhen Leopards104-84Jiangsu Dragons
Jiangsu Dragons71-90Shenzhen Leopards
Jiangsu Dragons83-106Shenzhen Leopards
Jiangsu Dragons109-115Shenzhen Leopards

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Jiangsu Dragons 1456 · Shenzhen Leopards 1486

	Jiangsu Dragons	Shenzhen Leopards
Our model	59%	41%
Market	32%	68%

Estimated total (ours) 180.7 points · Bet365 line 178.5 · +2.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

Estimated points180.7Jiangsu Dragons 88.2 · Shenzhen Leopards 92.5

Match keys

H2H favours Shenzhen Leopards: 5-1.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

	Jiangsu Dragons	Shenzhen Leopards
Points F\|A (Last 10)	85.5 / 90.1	93.7 / 95.3
Points F\|A (Last 5)	87.6 / 90.4	86.8 / 96.4
Est. result	88	93

Est. total180.7

Line O/U178.5

Diff.2.2

The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.

Odds Bet365

12.85

21.37

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+10.5)1.83

2 (-10.5)1.83

Line ⓘ

Over 178.51.83

Under 178.51.83

Diff.: 3.8 · Est. total: 182.3

Market movement

Match winner · 4 moves · last 12:45

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.40 → 2.85▼	Pinn 4.33 ★
2	1.28 → 1.37▲	Bet365 1.37

See the full journey (4)

Bet365 margin 8.1% Pinnacle margin 7.1%

Time*	1	2
16:41 +12’	3.40	1.28
20:41 +6’	3.10▼	1.33▲
05:35 +10’	2.60▼	1.45▲
12:40 +5’	2.85▲	1.37▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	2
18:36 +14’	2.79	1.36
00:18 +27’	2.74▼	1.38▲
01:36 +10’	2.47▼	1.48▲
02:31 +14’	2.34▼	1.53▲
04:30 +16’	2.22▼	1.58▲
07:14 +31’	2.49▲	1.47▼
10:39 +7’	2.61▲	1.45▼
11:45 +1’	3.01▲	1.35▼
12:44 +1’	4.33▲	1.19▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Jiangsu Dragons 1–0–5 Shenzhen Leopards

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Date	Home	Score	Away
07/08/26 China CBA Summer League	Jiangsu Dragons	83-72	Shenzhen Leopards
11/04/26 China CBA	Shenzhen Leopards	93-88	Jiangsu Dragons
24/03/26 China CBA	Shenzhen Leopards	104-84	Jiangsu Dragons
01/02/26 China CBA	Jiangsu Dragons	71-90	Shenzhen Leopards
27/03/25 China CBA	Jiangsu Dragons	83-106	Shenzhen Leopards
06/03/25 China CBA	Jiangsu Dragons	109-115	Shenzhen Leopards

Standings · China CBA

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA
1	Shanghai Sharks	1	1	0	102	68
2	Beijing Royal Fighters	1	1	0	95	71
3	Sichuan Blue Whales	1	1	0	97	85
4	Liaoning Flying Leopards	1	1	0	95	84
5	Guangzhou Long-Lions	1	1	0	90	79
6	Zhejiang Lions	1	1	0	115	109
7	Fujian Sturgeons	1	1	0	89	85
8	Beijing Ducks	1	1	0	84	82
9	Xinjiang Flying Tigers	1	1	0	82	80
10	Nanjing Monkey King	1	1	0	96	95
11	Guangdong Southern Tigers	1	0	1	95	96
12	Jilin Northeast Tigers	1	0	1	82	84
13	Qingdao Eagles	1	0	1	80	82
14	Jiangsu Dragons	1	0	1	85	89
15	Shanxi Loongs	1	0	1	109	115
16	Shandong Hi-Speed	1	0	1	84	95
17	Zhejiang Golden Bulls	1	0	1	79	90
18	Tianjin Pioneers	1	0	1	85	97
19	Ningbo Rockets	1	0	1	71	95
20	Shenzhen Leopards	1	0	1	68	102

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Jiangsu Dragons	Shenzhen Leopards
Guangzhou Long-Lions	67-80 L	99-86 W
Zhejiang Golden Bulls	77-89 L	95-91 W
Record vs common	0 W 0 D 2 L	2 W 0 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Shenzhen Leopards (2 of 2 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Jiangsu Dragons

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
17/10	Fujian Sturgeons China CBA	85-89	L
24/04	Liaoning Flying Leopards China CBA	89-108	L
20/04	Sichuan Blue Whales China CBA	101-85	W
18/04	Shanxi Loongs China CBA	87-86	W
16/04	Fujian Sturgeons China CBA	76-84	L
13/04	Guangzhou Long-Lions China CBA	67-80	L
11/04	Shenzhen Leopards China CBA	88-93	L
09/04	Zhejiang Golden Bulls China CBA	77-89	L
06/04	Beijing Royal Fighters China CBA	89-88	W
04/04	Nanjing Monkey King China CBA	96-99	L

Shenzhen Leopards

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
16/10	Shanghai Sharks China CBA	68-102	L
23/05	Zhejiang Lions China CBA	88-97	L
21/05	Zhejiang Lions China CBA	91-80	W
18/05	Zhejiang Lions China CBA	85-92	L
16/05	Zhejiang Lions China CBA	102-111	L
10/05	Zhejiang Golden Bulls China CBA	95-91	W
07/05	Zhejiang Golden Bulls China CBA	108-95	W
24/04	Guangzhou Long-Lions China CBA	99-86	W
19/04	Shandong Hi-Speed China CBA	95-103	L
17/04	Ningbo Rockets China CBA	106-96	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Jiangsu Dragons vs Shenzhen Leopards?

Our model gives 62% to Shenzhen Leopards.

How many points are expected in Jiangsu Dragons vs Shenzhen Leopards?

The model estimates 180.7 total points (Jiangsu Dragons 88.2 · Shenzhen Leopards 92.5).