Basketball · China CBA · 28/10, 12:35

Prediction: Shenzhen Leopards vs Shanxi Loongs

Team pages: Shenzhen Leopards · Shanxi Loongs

Prediction summary

Estimated points

188.7Total

Shenzhen Leopards90.3

Shanxi Loongs98.4

1X2

28% 72%

Shenzhen Leopards Shanxi Loongs

Recent form · 10 last

Shenzhen Leopards 4-0-6 (W-D-L)

WWLLWLLWLL

Shanxi Loongs 7-0-3 (W-D-L)

WWWWLLLWWW

Head-to-head

Shenzhen Leopards 2–4 Shanxi Loongs (6 last)

Shenzhen Leopards68-84Shanxi Loongs
Shanxi Loongs98-103Shenzhen Leopards
Shenzhen Leopards105-95Shanxi Loongs
Shenzhen Leopards127-132Shanxi Loongs
Shenzhen Leopards69-95Shanxi Loongs
Shanxi Loongs120-100Shenzhen Leopards

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Shenzhen Leopards 1506 · Shanxi Loongs 1572

	Shenzhen Leopards	Shanxi Loongs
Our model	53%	47%
Market	21%	79%

Estimated total (ours) 188.7 points · Bet365 line 185.5 · +3.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

Estimated points188.7Shenzhen Leopards 90.3 · Shanxi Loongs 98.4

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Shanxi Loongs (rating 1506 vs 1572).
Shanxi Loongs is a clear favourite (72% market).
H2H favours Shanxi Loongs: 4-2.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

	Shenzhen Leopards	Shanxi Loongs
Points F\|A (Last 10)	85.8 / 97.2	95.9 / 90.2
Points F\|A (Last 5)	75.4 / 100.6	96.6 / 90
Est. result	90	98

Est. total188.7

Line O/U185.5

Diff.3.2

The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.

Odds Bet365

14.40

21.18

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+12.5)1.87

2 (-12.5)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 185.51.83

Under 185.51.83

Diff.: 0.95 · Est. total: 184.55

Market movement

Match winner · 4 moves · last 05:46

	Bet365	Best now
1	5.25 → 4.40▼	Pinn 6.72 ★
2	1.13 → 1.18▲	Bet365 1.18

See the full journey (4)

Bet365 margin 7.4% Pinnacle margin 7.7%

Time*	1	2
17:07 +40’	5.25	1.13
21:48 +3’	4.20▼	1.20▲
00:43 +2’	3.35▼	1.28▲
05:31 +15’	4.40▲	1.18▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	2
16:38 +10’	4.08	1.18
17:44 +2’	3.59▼	1.23▲
19:46 +1’	3.72▲	1.21▼
20:14 +36’	3.55▼	1.23▲
22:43 +3’	3.33▼	1.26▲
00:43 +2’	3.38▲	1.27▲
01:43 +2’	3.62▲	1.24▼
03:44 +1’	4.08▲	1.19▼
04:27 +18’	4.87▲	1.14▼
05:46	6.72▲	1.08▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Shenzhen Leopards 2–0–4 Shanxi Loongs

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
09/10/26 Club Friendlies	Shenzhen Leopards	68-84	Shanxi Loongs
09/04/26 China CBA	Shanxi Loongs	98-103	Shenzhen Leopards
22/01/26 China CBA	Shenzhen Leopards	105-95	Shanxi Loongs
24/12/24 China CBA	Shenzhen Leopards	127-132	Shanxi Loongs
17/11/24 China CBA Club Cup	Shenzhen Leopards	69-95	Shanxi Loongs
20/10/24 China CBA	Shanxi Loongs	120-100	Shenzhen Leopards

Standings · China CBA

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA
1	Beijing Ducks	5	5	0	520	387
2	Zhejiang Golden Bulls	5	4	1	428	369
3	Shanghai Sharks	5	4	1	492	439
4	Liaoning Flying Leopards	5	4	1	478	447
5	Guangzhou Long-Lions	5	3	2	454	469
6	Jilin Northeast Tigers	5	3	2	426	415
7	Beijing Royal Fighters	5	3	2	473	419
8	Zhejiang Lions	5	3	2	463	465
9	Nanjing Monkey King	5	2	3	445	497
10	Qingdao Eagles	5	2	3	448	437
11	Shandong Hi-Speed	5	2	3	462	477
12	Xinjiang Flying Tigers	5	2	3	434	440
13	Guangdong Southern Tigers	5	2	3	442	446
14	Sichuan Blue Whales	5	2	3	411	459
15	Shanxi Loongs	4	3	1	416	359
16	Fujian Sturgeons	5	2	3	445	442
17	Tianjin Pioneers	5	1	4	462	489
18	Jiangsu Dragons	5	1	4	415	450
19	Shenzhen Leopards	4	1	3	289	406
20	Ningbo Rockets	5	0	5	373	464

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Shenzhen Leopards	Shanxi Loongs
Jiangsu Dragons	89-81 W	101-79 W
Shanghai Sharks	68-102 L	103-92 W
Zhejiang Lions	88-97 L	109-115 L
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 2 L	2 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Shanxi Loongs (3 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Shenzhen Leopards

WWLLWLLWLL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
25/10	Beijing Royal Fighters China CBA	70-103	L
22/10	Beijing Ducks China CBA	62-120	L
19/10	Jiangsu Dragons China CBA	89-81	W
16/10	Shanghai Sharks China CBA	68-102	L
23/05	Zhejiang Lions China CBA	88-97	L
21/05	Zhejiang Lions China CBA	91-80	W
18/05	Zhejiang Lions China CBA	85-92	L
16/05	Zhejiang Lions China CBA	102-111	L
10/05	Zhejiang Golden Bulls China CBA	95-91	W
07/05	Zhejiang Golden Bulls China CBA	108-95	W

Shanxi Loongs

WWWWLLLWWW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
25/10	Jiangsu Dragons China CBA	101-79	W
22/10	Shanghai Sharks China CBA	103-92	W
20/10	Ningbo Rockets China CBA	103-73	W
17/10	Zhejiang Lions China CBA	109-115	L
13/05	Zhejiang Lions China CBA	67-91	L
10/05	Zhejiang Lions China CBA	81-86	L
07/05	Zhejiang Lions China CBA	92-90	W
02/05	Qingdao Eagles China CBA	97-94	W
29/04	Qingdao Eagles China CBA	90-86	W
24/04	Nanjing Monkey King China CBA	116-96	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Shenzhen Leopards vs Shanxi Loongs?

Our model gives 72% to Shanxi Loongs.

How many points are expected in Shenzhen Leopards vs Shanxi Loongs?

The model estimates 188.7 total points (Shenzhen Leopards 90.3 · Shanxi Loongs 98.4).