Basketball · China CBA · 18/10, 13:35

Prediction: Guangzhou Long-Lions vs Zhejiang Golden Bulls

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Prediction summary

Estimated points

170.9Total

Guangzhou Long-Lions81.8

Zhejiang Golden Bulls89.1

1X2

30% 70%

Guangzhou Long-Lions Zhejiang Golden Bulls

Recent form · 10 last

Guangzhou Long-Lions 5-0-5 (W-D-L)

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Zhejiang Golden Bulls 7-0-3 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Guangzhou Long-Lions 1–5 Zhejiang Golden Bulls (6 last)

Zhejiang Golden Bulls87-70Guangzhou Long-Lions
Zhejiang Golden Bulls89-74Guangzhou Long-Lions
Guangzhou Long-Lions60-95Zhejiang Golden Bulls
Zhejiang Golden Bulls120-103Guangzhou Long-Lions
Guangzhou Long-Lions93-122Zhejiang Golden Bulls
Guangzhou Long-Lions123-113Zhejiang Golden Bulls

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Guangzhou Long-Lions 1461 · Zhejiang Golden Bulls 1560

	Guangzhou Long-Lions	Zhejiang Golden Bulls
Our model	49%	51%
Market	26%	74%

Estimated total (ours) 170.9 points · Bet365 line 174.5 · -3.6

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

Estimated points170.9Guangzhou Long-Lions 81.8 · Zhejiang Golden Bulls 89.1

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Zhejiang Golden Bulls (rating 1461 vs 1560).
Zhejiang Golden Bulls is a clear favourite (70% market).
H2H favours Zhejiang Golden Bulls: 5-1.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

	Guangzhou Long-Lions	Zhejiang Golden Bulls
Points F\|A (Last 10)	87.5 / 86	88.4 / 81.3
Points F\|A (Last 5)	84.8 / 88.8	87.6 / 84.4
Est. result	82	89

Est. total170.9

Line O/U174.5

Diff.3.6

The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.

Odds Bet365

13.65

21.26

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+8)1.83

2 (-8)1.83

Line ⓘ

Over 174.51.83

Under 174.51.83

Diff.: 2.9 · Est. total: 171.6

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 11:45

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.10 → 3.65▲	Bet365 3.65
2	1.33 → 1.26▼	Pinn 1.34 ★

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 7% Pinnacle margin 7.1%

Time*	1	2
15:45 +27’	3.10	1.33
11:37 +8’	3.65▲	1.26▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	2
18:52 +3’	2.86	1.35
19:36 +15’	2.58▼	1.42▲
21:53 +53’	2.62▲	1.41▼
23:39 +7’	2.77▲	1.37▼
01:40 +6’	2.76▼	1.39▲
02:22 +24’	3.10▲	1.31▼
05:55 +51’	3.36▲	1.27▼
07:11 +35’	3.37▲	1.27▼
10:35 +10’	3.79▲	1.24▼
12:36 +10’	3.07▼	1.34▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Guangzhou Long-Lions 1–0–5 Zhejiang Golden Bulls

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Date	Home	Score	Away
30/03/26 China CBA	Zhejiang Golden Bulls	87-70	Guangzhou Long-Lions
14/01/26 China CBA	Zhejiang Golden Bulls	89-74	Guangzhou Long-Lions
08/01/26 China CBA	Guangzhou Long-Lions	60-95	Zhejiang Golden Bulls
23/12/24 China CBA	Zhejiang Golden Bulls	120-103	Guangzhou Long-Lions
09/12/24 China CBA	Guangzhou Long-Lions	93-122	Zhejiang Golden Bulls
18/01/24 China CBA	Guangzhou Long-Lions	123-113	Zhejiang Golden Bulls

Standings · China CBA

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA
1	Shanghai Sharks	1	1	0	102	68
2	Beijing Royal Fighters	1	1	0	95	71
3	Sichuan Blue Whales	1	1	0	97	85
4	Zhejiang Lions	1	1	0	115	109
5	Fujian Sturgeons	1	1	0	89	85
6	Xinjiang Flying Tigers	1	1	0	82	80
7	Qingdao Eagles	1	0	1	80	82
8	Jiangsu Dragons	1	0	1	85	89
9	Shanxi Loongs	1	0	1	109	115
10	Tianjin Pioneers	1	0	1	85	97
11	Ningbo Rockets	1	0	1	71	95
12	Shenzhen Leopards	1	0	1	68	102
13	Beijing Ducks	0	0	0	0	0
13	Guangdong Southern Tigers	0	0	0	0	0
13	Guangzhou Long-Lions	0	0	0	0	0
13	Jilin Northeast Tigers	0	0	0	0	0
13	Liaoning Flying Leopards	0	0	0	0	0
13	Nanjing Monkey King	0	0	0	0	0
13	Shandong Hi-Speed	0	0	0	0	0
13	Zhejiang Golden Bulls	0	0	0	0	0

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Guangzhou Long-Lions	Zhejiang Golden Bulls
Shenzhen Leopards	86-99 L	91-95 L
Fujian Sturgeons	101-94 W	97-98 L
Jilin Northeast Tigers	93-75 W	82-66 W
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 1 L	1 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Guangzhou Long-Lions (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Guangzhou Long-Lions

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
03/05	Guangdong Southern Tigers China CBA	80-90	L
01/05	Guangdong Southern Tigers China CBA	64-85	L
28/04	Guangdong Southern Tigers China CBA	93-76	W
24/04	Shenzhen Leopards China CBA	86-99	L
20/04	Fujian Sturgeons China CBA	101-94	W
18/04	Jilin Northeast Tigers China CBA	93-75	W
15/04	Shanghai Sharks China CBA	89-90	L
13/04	Jiangsu Dragons China CBA	80-67	W
11/04	Nanjing Monkey King China CBA	95-81	W
08/04	Beijing Ducks China CBA	94-103	L

Zhejiang Golden Bulls

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
10/05	Shenzhen Leopards China CBA	91-95	L
07/05	Shenzhen Leopards China CBA	95-108	L
02/05	Ningbo Rockets China CBA	83-81	W
29/04	Ningbo Rockets China CBA	65-57	W
24/04	Sichuan Blue Whales China CBA	104-81	W
20/04	Tianjin Pioneers China CBA	96-84	W
18/04	Liaoning Flying Leopards China CBA	76-71	W
16/04	Jilin Northeast Tigers China CBA	82-66	W
13/04	Fujian Sturgeons China CBA	97-98	L
11/04	Shandong Hi-Speed China CBA	95-72	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Guangzhou Long-Lions vs Zhejiang Golden Bulls?

Our model gives 70% to Zhejiang Golden Bulls.

How many points are expected in Guangzhou Long-Lions vs Zhejiang Golden Bulls?

The model estimates 170.9 total points (Guangzhou Long-Lions 81.8 · Zhejiang Golden Bulls 89.1).