Basketball · China CBA · 27/10, 12:35

Prediction: Guangzhou Long-Lions vs Beijing Royal Fighters

Team pages: Guangzhou Long-Lions · Beijing Royal Fighters

Prediction summary

Estimated points

178.3Total

Guangzhou Long-Lions85.3

Beijing Royal Fighters93

1X2

29% 71%

Guangzhou Long-Lions Beijing Royal Fighters

Recent form · 10 last

Guangzhou Long-Lions 5-0-5 (W-D-L)

WWLWLLWWLL

Beijing Royal Fighters 6-0-4 (W-D-L)

LWWWLLWLWW

Head-to-head

Guangzhou Long-Lions 1–5 Beijing Royal Fighters (6 last)

Beijing Royal Fighters89-88Guangzhou Long-Lions
Guangzhou Long-Lions104-75Beijing Royal Fighters
Guangzhou Long-Lions113-116Beijing Royal Fighters
Guangzhou Long-Lions80-93Beijing Royal Fighters
Beijing Royal Fighters107-105Guangzhou Long-Lions
Beijing Royal Fighters113-97Guangzhou Long-Lions

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Guangzhou Long-Lions 1502 · Beijing Royal Fighters 1521

	Guangzhou Long-Lions	Beijing Royal Fighters
Our model	60%	40%
Market	21%	79%

Estimated total (ours) 178.3 points · Bet365 line 182.5 · -4.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

Estimated points178.3Guangzhou Long-Lions 85.3 · Beijing Royal Fighters 93

Match keys

Beijing Royal Fighters is a clear favourite (71% market).
H2H favours Beijing Royal Fighters: 5-1.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

	Guangzhou Long-Lions	Beijing Royal Fighters
Points F\|A (Last 10)	88 / 89.8	91.2 / 86.4
Points F\|A (Last 5)	88.6 / 93.8	92.2 / 84.4
Est. result	85	93

Est. total178.3

Line O/U182.5

Diff.4.2

The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.

Odds Bet365

14.40

21.18

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+9.5)1.83

2 (-9.5)1.83

Line ⓘ

Over 182.51.83

Under 182.51.83

Diff.: 4.8 · Est. total: 177.7

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 19:47

	Bet365	Best now
1	6.75 → 4.40▼	Bet365 4.40
2	1.09 → 1.18▲	Pinn 1.23 ★

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 7.4% Pinnacle margin 9.3%

Time*	1	2
18:42 +4’	6.75	1.09
19:41 +5’	4.40▼	1.18▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	2
18:23 +23’	3.86	1.20
19:43 +4’	3.59▼	1.23▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Guangzhou Long-Lions 1–0–5 Beijing Royal Fighters

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
01/04/26 China CBA	Beijing Royal Fighters	89-88	Guangzhou Long-Lions
19/01/26 China CBA	Guangzhou Long-Lions	104-75	Beijing Royal Fighters
22/01/25 China CBA	Guangzhou Long-Lions	113-116	Beijing Royal Fighters
15/11/24 China CBA Club Cup	Guangzhou Long-Lions	80-93	Beijing Royal Fighters
23/10/24 China CBA	Beijing Royal Fighters	107-105	Guangzhou Long-Lions
20/01/24 China CBA	Beijing Royal Fighters	113-97	Guangzhou Long-Lions

Standings · China CBA

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA
1	Beijing Ducks	4	4	0	417	295
2	Liaoning Flying Leopards	4	4	0	394	357
3	Shanghai Sharks	4	3	1	393	352
4	Shanxi Loongs	4	3	1	416	359
5	Beijing Royal Fighters	4	3	1	383	328
6	Zhejiang Golden Bulls	4	3	1	347	294
7	Jilin Northeast Tigers	4	2	2	341	339
8	Zhejiang Lions	4	2	2	373	381
9	Guangdong Southern Tigers	4	2	2	355	347
10	Sichuan Blue Whales	4	2	2	330	368
11	Fujian Sturgeons	4	2	2	367	354
12	Xinjiang Flying Tigers	4	2	2	359	359
13	Shandong Hi-Speed	4	2	2	370	374
14	Guangzhou Long-Lions	4	2	2	363	379
15	Qingdao Eagles	4	1	3	354	347
16	Nanjing Monkey King	4	1	3	354	416
17	Tianjin Pioneers	4	1	3	372	395
18	Shenzhen Leopards	4	1	3	289	406
19	Jiangsu Dragons	4	0	4	327	372
20	Ningbo Rockets	4	0	4	297	379

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Guangzhou Long-Lions	Beijing Royal Fighters
Beijing Ducks	73-117 L	65-84 L
Shenzhen Leopards	86-99 L	103-70 W
Record vs common	0 W 0 D 2 L	1 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Beijing Royal Fighters (2 of 2 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Guangzhou Long-Lions

WWLWLLWWLL

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
25/10	Beijing Ducks China CBA	73-117	L
23/10	Tianjin Pioneers China CBA	86-102	L
20/10	Nanjing Monkey King China CBA	114-81	W
18/10	Zhejiang Golden Bulls China CBA	90-79	W
03/05	Guangdong Southern Tigers China CBA	80-90	L
01/05	Guangdong Southern Tigers China CBA	64-85	L
28/04	Guangdong Southern Tigers China CBA	93-76	W
24/04	Shenzhen Leopards China CBA	86-99	L
20/04	Fujian Sturgeons China CBA	101-94	W
18/04	Jilin Northeast Tigers China CBA	93-75	W

Beijing Royal Fighters

LWWWLLWLWW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
25/10	Shenzhen Leopards China CBA	103-70	W
23/10	Jiangsu Dragons China CBA	93-82	W
19/10	Shanghai Sharks China CBA	92-105	L
17/10	Ningbo Rockets China CBA	95-71	W
24/04	Ningbo Rockets China CBA	78-94	L
19/04	Zhejiang Lions China CBA	104-117	L
17/04	Sichuan Blue Whales China CBA	93-71	W
15/04	Shandong Hi-Speed China CBA	87-81	W
13/04	Shanxi Loongs China CBA	102-89	W
10/04	Beijing Ducks China CBA	65-84	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Guangzhou Long-Lions vs Beijing Royal Fighters?

Our model gives 71% to Beijing Royal Fighters.

How many points are expected in Guangzhou Long-Lions vs Beijing Royal Fighters?

The model estimates 178.3 total points (Guangzhou Long-Lions 85.3 · Beijing Royal Fighters 93).