Basketball · China CBA · 22/10, 13:35

Prediction: Beijing Ducks vs Shenzhen Leopards

Team pages: Beijing Ducks · Shenzhen Leopards

Prediction summary

Estimated points

184.6Total

Beijing Ducks97.7

Shenzhen Leopards86.9

1X2

78% 22%

Beijing Ducks Shenzhen Leopards

Recent form · 10 last

Beijing Ducks 6-0-4 (W-D-L)

WWLWLWLLWW

Shenzhen Leopards 5-0-5 (W-D-L)

LWWWLLWLLW

Head-to-head

Beijing Ducks 5–1 Shenzhen Leopards (6 last)

Shenzhen Leopards118-110Beijing Ducks
Beijing Ducks104-88Shenzhen Leopards
Beijing Ducks104-86Shenzhen Leopards
Shenzhen Leopards90-106Beijing Ducks
Shenzhen Leopards77-83Beijing Ducks
Shenzhen Leopards102-107Beijing Ducks

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Beijing Ducks 1598 · Shenzhen Leopards 1482

	Beijing Ducks	Shenzhen Leopards
Our model	77%	23%
Market	79%	21%

Estimated total (ours) 184.6 points · Bet365 line 173.5 · +11.1

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

Estimated points184.6Beijing Ducks 97.7 · Shenzhen Leopards 86.9

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Beijing Ducks (rating 1598 vs 1482).
Beijing Ducks is a clear favourite (78% market).
H2H favours Beijing Ducks: 5-1.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

	Beijing Ducks	Shenzhen Leopards
Points F\|A (Last 10)	90.6 / 83.9	92 / 93.8
Points F\|A (Last 5)	86 / 85.6	84.2 / 90.4
Est. result	98	87

Est. total184.6

Line O/U173.5

Diff.11.1

The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.

Odds Bet365

11.18

24.40

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-9.5)1.83

2 (+9.5)1.83

Line ⓘ

Over 173.51.80

Under 173.51.87

Diff.: 6.65 · Est. total: 180.15

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:46

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.18 → 1.18	Bet365 1.18
2	4.40 → 4.40	Bet365 4.40

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.4%

Time*	1	2
14:50 +57’	1.18	4.40

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Beijing Ducks 5–0–1 Shenzhen Leopards

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Date	Home	Score	Away
11/01/26 China CBA	Shenzhen Leopards	118-110	Beijing Ducks
20/12/25 China CBA	Beijing Ducks	104-88	Shenzhen Leopards
22/01/25 China CBA	Beijing Ducks	104-86	Shenzhen Leopards
29/11/24 China CBA	Shenzhen Leopards	90-106	Beijing Ducks
21/09/24 Club Friendlies	Shenzhen Leopards	77-83	Beijing Ducks
06/04/24 China CBA	Shenzhen Leopards	102-107	Beijing Ducks

Standings · China CBA

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA
1	Shanghai Sharks	2	2	0	207	160
2	Guangzhou Long-Lions	2	2	0	204	160
3	Beijing Ducks	2	2	0	180	160
4	Xinjiang Flying Tigers	2	2	0	189	172
5	Sichuan Blue Whales	2	2	0	188	173
6	Zhejiang Lions	2	2	0	214	203
7	Shanxi Loongs	2	1	1	212	188
8	Beijing Royal Fighters	2	1	1	187	176
9	Fujian Sturgeons	2	1	1	183	184
10	Shenzhen Leopards	2	1	1	157	183
11	Nanjing Monkey King	2	1	1	177	209
12	Liaoning Flying Leopards	1	1	0	95	84
13	Jilin Northeast Tigers	2	0	2	170	175
14	Jiangsu Dragons	2	0	2	166	178
15	Guangdong Southern Tigers	2	0	2	173	192
16	Tianjin Pioneers	2	0	2	177	204
17	Ningbo Rockets	2	0	2	144	198
18	Qingdao Eagles	1	0	1	80	82
19	Shandong Hi-Speed	1	0	1	84	95
20	Zhejiang Golden Bulls	1	0	1	79	90

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Beijing Ducks

WWLWLWLLWW

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
20/10	Guangdong Southern Tigers China CBA	96-78	W
18/10	Jilin Northeast Tigers China CBA	84-82	W
22/05	Shanghai Sharks China CBA	85-99	L
20/05	Shanghai Sharks China CBA	66-81	L
17/05	Shanghai Sharks China CBA	99-88	W
15/05	Shanghai Sharks China CBA	82-87	L
12/05	Guangdong Southern Tigers China CBA	88-73	W
09/05	Guangdong Southern Tigers China CBA	99-102	L
06/05	Guangdong Southern Tigers China CBA	102-94	W
24/04	Jilin Northeast Tigers China CBA	105-55	W

Shenzhen Leopards

LWWWLLWLLW

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
19/10	Jiangsu Dragons China CBA	89-81	W
16/10	Shanghai Sharks China CBA	68-102	L
23/05	Zhejiang Lions China CBA	88-97	L
21/05	Zhejiang Lions China CBA	91-80	W
18/05	Zhejiang Lions China CBA	85-92	L
16/05	Zhejiang Lions China CBA	102-111	L
10/05	Zhejiang Golden Bulls China CBA	95-91	W
07/05	Zhejiang Golden Bulls China CBA	108-95	W
24/04	Guangzhou Long-Lions China CBA	99-86	W
19/04	Shandong Hi-Speed China CBA	95-103	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Beijing Ducks vs Shenzhen Leopards?

Our model gives 78% to Beijing Ducks.

How many points are expected in Beijing Ducks vs Shenzhen Leopards?

The model estimates 184.6 total points (Beijing Ducks 97.7 · Shenzhen Leopards 86.9).