Basketball · China CBA · 01/11, 12:35

Prediction: Beijing Ducks vs Zhejiang Lions

Team pages: Beijing Ducks · Zhejiang Lions

Prediction summary

Estimated points

179.4Total

Beijing Ducks96.9

Zhejiang Lions82.4

1X2

85% 15%

Beijing Ducks Zhejiang Lions

Recent form · 10 last

Beijing Ducks 7-0-3 (W-D-L)

LWLLWWWWWW

Zhejiang Lions 5-0-5 (W-D-L)

LLWLWWLLWW

Head-to-head

Beijing Ducks 1–5 Zhejiang Lions (6 last)

Zhejiang Lions77-74Beijing Ducks
Beijing Ducks85-91Zhejiang Lions
Zhejiang Lions92-89Beijing Ducks
Beijing Ducks118-125Zhejiang Lions
Zhejiang Lions92-94Beijing Ducks
Beijing Ducks73-106Zhejiang Lions

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Beijing Ducks 1606 · Zhejiang Lions 1547

	Beijing Ducks	Zhejiang Lions
Our model	70%	30%
Market	89%	11%

Estimated total (ours) 179.4 points · Bet365 line 183.5 · -4.1

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

Estimated points179.4Beijing Ducks 96.9 · Zhejiang Lions 82.4

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Beijing Ducks (rating 1606 vs 1547).
Beijing Ducks is a clear favourite (85% market).
H2H favours Zhejiang Lions: 5-1.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

	Beijing Ducks	Zhejiang Lions
Points F\|A (Last 10)	95.7 / 82.8	90.6 / 95.4
Points F\|A (Last 5)	108.2 / 78.2	88.6 / 89.6
Est. result	97	82

Est. total179.4

Line O/U183.5

Diff.4.1

The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.

Odds Bet365

11.05

28.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-14.5)1.83

2 (+14.5)1.83

Line ⓘ

Over 183.51.83

Under 183.51.83

Diff.: 1.25 · Est. total: 182.25

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:25

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.05 → 1.05	Pinn 1.08 ★
2	8.25 → 8.25	Bet365 8.25

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 6.9% Pinnacle margin 8.6%

Time*	1	2
15:21 +4’	1.05	8.25

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	2
15:23 +2’	1.07	6.88
16:20 +26’	1.08▲	6.13▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Beijing Ducks 1–0–5 Zhejiang Lions

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
03/01/26 China CBA	Zhejiang Lions	77-74	Beijing Ducks
30/12/25 China CBA	Beijing Ducks	85-91	Zhejiang Lions
08/12/25 China CBA Club Cup	Zhejiang Lions	92-89	Beijing Ducks
20/05/25 China CBA	Beijing Ducks	118-125	Zhejiang Lions
17/05/25 China CBA	Zhejiang Lions	92-94	Beijing Ducks
14/05/25 China CBA	Beijing Ducks	73-106	Zhejiang Lions

Standings · China CBA

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA
1	Beijing Ducks	6	6	0	625	473
2	Beijing Royal Fighters	7	5	2	694	567
3	Shanghai Sharks	6	5	1	580	520
4	Fujian Sturgeons	7	4	3	642	618
5	Liaoning Flying Leopards	6	5	1	585	538
6	Zhejiang Golden Bulls	6	4	2	509	457
7	Guangdong Southern Tigers	7	3	4	600	611
8	Shandong Hi-Speed	7	3	4	637	655
9	Zhejiang Lions	6	4	2	558	557
10	Shanxi Loongs	6	4	2	612	547
11	Xinjiang Flying Tigers	7	3	4	602	629
12	Shenzhen Leopards	6	3	3	466	570
13	Jilin Northeast Tigers	6	3	3	507	497
14	Guangzhou Long-Lions	6	3	3	547	582
15	Qingdao Eagles	7	2	5	620	637
16	Nanjing Monkey King	6	2	4	528	581
17	Sichuan Blue Whales	6	2	4	475	574
18	Tianjin Pioneers	6	1	5	554	584
19	Jiangsu Dragons	6	1	5	495	532
20	Ningbo Rockets	6	0	6	464	571

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Beijing Ducks	Zhejiang Lions
Guangdong Southern Tigers	96-78 W	78-96 L
Jilin Northeast Tigers	84-82 W	81-82 L
Shanghai Sharks	85-99 L	82-103 L
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 1 L	0 W 0 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Beijing Ducks (3 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Beijing Ducks

LWLLWWWWWW

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
29/10	Qingdao Eagles China CBA	105-86	W
27/10	Shandong Hi-Speed China CBA	103-92	W
25/10	Guangzhou Long-Lions China CBA	117-73	W
22/10	Shenzhen Leopards China CBA	120-62	W
20/10	Guangdong Southern Tigers China CBA	96-78	W
18/10	Jilin Northeast Tigers China CBA	84-82	W
22/05	Shanghai Sharks China CBA	85-99	L
20/05	Shanghai Sharks China CBA	66-81	L
17/05	Shanghai Sharks China CBA	99-88	W
15/05	Shanghai Sharks China CBA	82-87	L

Zhejiang Lions

LLWLWWLLWW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
30/10	Tianjin Pioneers China CBA	95-92	W
27/10	Liaoning Flying Leopards China CBA	90-84	W
24/10	Jilin Northeast Tigers China CBA	81-82	L
22/10	Guangdong Southern Tigers China CBA	78-96	L
20/10	Fujian Sturgeons China CBA	99-94	W
17/10	Shanxi Loongs China CBA	115-109	W
05/06	Shanghai Sharks China CBA	82-103	L
02/06	Shanghai Sharks China CBA	101-93	W
31/05	Shanghai Sharks China CBA	77-110	L
28/05	Shanghai Sharks China CBA	88-91	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Beijing Ducks vs Zhejiang Lions?

Our model gives 85% to Beijing Ducks.

How many points are expected in Beijing Ducks vs Zhejiang Lions?

The model estimates 179.4 total points (Beijing Ducks 96.9 · Zhejiang Lions 82.4).