Basketball · China CBA · 01/11, 12:35

Prediction: Jilin Northeast Tigers vs Guangzhou Long-Lions

Team pages: Jilin Northeast Tigers · Guangzhou Long-Lions

Prediction summary

Estimated points

172.5Total

Jilin Northeast Tigers87.5

Guangzhou Long-Lions85

1X2 Even — no clear favourite

57% 43%

Jilin Northeast Tigers Guangzhou Long-Lions

The bar shows the win probability, but the expected points are almost even: the model does not lean clearly on either side.

Recent form · 10 last

Jilin Northeast Tigers 3-0-7 (W-D-L)

LLLLLLWWWL

Guangzhou Long-Lions 4-0-6 (W-D-L)

LWLLWWLLWL

Head-to-head

Jilin Northeast Tigers 2–4 Guangzhou Long-Lions (6 last)

Jilin Northeast Tigers75-93Guangzhou Long-Lions
Guangzhou Long-Lions87-74Jilin Northeast Tigers
Jilin Northeast Tigers83-81Guangzhou Long-Lions
Guangzhou Long-Lions102-103Jilin Northeast Tigers
Jilin Northeast Tigers90-104Guangzhou Long-Lions
Guangzhou Long-Lions140-117Jilin Northeast Tigers

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Jilin Northeast Tigers 1391 · Guangzhou Long-Lions 1499

	Jilin Northeast Tigers	Guangzhou Long-Lions
Our model	47%	53%
Market	60%	40%

Estimated total (ours) 172.5 points · Bet365 line 178.5 · -6

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

Estimated points172.5Jilin Northeast Tigers 87.5 · Guangzhou Long-Lions 85

Match keys

H2H favours Guangzhou Long-Lions: 4-2.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

	Jilin Northeast Tigers	Guangzhou Long-Lions
Points F\|A (Last 10)	76.8 / 86.1	87 / 93.2
Points F\|A (Last 5)	85 / 82.6	91.4 / 100.6
Est. result	88	85

Est. total172.5

Line O/U178.5

Diff.6

The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.

Odds Bet365

11.55

22.30

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-2.5)1.74

2 (+2.5)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 178.51.83

Under 178.51.83

Diff.: 6.95 · Est. total: 171.55

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:46

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.55 → 1.55	Pinn 1.60 ★
2	2.30 → 2.30	Bet365 2.30

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.8% Pinnacle margin 9.1%

Time*	1	2
16:37 +8’	1.55	2.30

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	2
15:07 +17’	1.59	2.17
16:25 +20’	1.60▲	2.15▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Jilin Northeast Tigers 2–0–4 Guangzhou Long-Lions

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Date	Home	Score	Away
18/04/26 China CBA	Jilin Northeast Tigers	75-93	Guangzhou Long-Lions
28/12/25 China CBA	Guangzhou Long-Lions	87-74	Jilin Northeast Tigers
10/08/25 China CBA Summer League	Jilin Northeast Tigers	83-81	Guangzhou Long-Lions
31/03/25 China CBA	Guangzhou Long-Lions	102-103	Jilin Northeast Tigers
24/03/25 China CBA	Jilin Northeast Tigers	90-104	Guangzhou Long-Lions
30/11/24 China CBA	Guangzhou Long-Lions	140-117	Jilin Northeast Tigers

Standings · China CBA

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA
1	Beijing Ducks	6	6	0	625	473
2	Beijing Royal Fighters	7	5	2	694	567
3	Shanghai Sharks	6	5	1	580	520
4	Fujian Sturgeons	7	4	3	642	618
5	Liaoning Flying Leopards	6	5	1	585	538
6	Zhejiang Golden Bulls	6	4	2	509	457
7	Guangdong Southern Tigers	7	3	4	600	611
8	Shandong Hi-Speed	7	3	4	637	655
9	Zhejiang Lions	6	4	2	558	557
10	Shanxi Loongs	6	4	2	612	547
11	Xinjiang Flying Tigers	7	3	4	602	629
12	Shenzhen Leopards	6	3	3	466	570
13	Jilin Northeast Tigers	6	3	3	507	497
14	Guangzhou Long-Lions	6	3	3	547	582
15	Qingdao Eagles	7	2	5	620	637
16	Nanjing Monkey King	6	2	4	528	581
17	Sichuan Blue Whales	6	2	4	475	574
18	Tianjin Pioneers	6	1	5	554	584
19	Jiangsu Dragons	6	1	5	495	532
20	Ningbo Rockets	6	0	6	464	571

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Jilin Northeast Tigers	Guangzhou Long-Lions
Shenzhen Leopards	81-82 L	86-99 L
Beijing Ducks	82-84 L	73-117 L
Zhejiang Golden Bulls	66-82 L	90-79 W
Record vs common	0 W 0 D 3 L	1 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Jilin Northeast Tigers (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Jilin Northeast Tigers

LLLLLLWWWL

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
30/10	Shenzhen Leopards China CBA	81-82	L
26/10	Ningbo Rockets China CBA	85-76	W
24/10	Zhejiang Lions China CBA	82-81	W
22/10	Xinjiang Flying Tigers China CBA	89-83	W
20/10	Sichuan Blue Whales China CBA	88-91	L
18/10	Beijing Ducks China CBA	82-84	L
24/04	Beijing Ducks China CBA	55-105	L
20/04	Ningbo Rockets China CBA	65-84	L
18/04	Guangzhou Long-Lions China CBA	75-93	L
16/04	Zhejiang Golden Bulls China CBA	66-82	L

Guangzhou Long-Lions

LWLLWWLLWL

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
30/10	Shanxi Loongs China CBA	93-113	L
27/10	Beijing Royal Fighters China CBA	91-90	W
25/10	Beijing Ducks China CBA	73-117	L
23/10	Tianjin Pioneers China CBA	86-102	L
20/10	Nanjing Monkey King China CBA	114-81	W
18/10	Zhejiang Golden Bulls China CBA	90-79	W
03/05	Guangdong Southern Tigers China CBA	80-90	L
01/05	Guangdong Southern Tigers China CBA	64-85	L
28/04	Guangdong Southern Tigers China CBA	93-76	W
24/04	Shenzhen Leopards China CBA	86-99	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Jilin Northeast Tigers vs Guangzhou Long-Lions?

Our model does not see a clear favourite: the match is very even (Jilin Northeast Tigers 57% · Guangzhou Long-Lions 43%).

How many points are expected in Jilin Northeast Tigers vs Guangzhou Long-Lions?

The model estimates 172.5 total points (Jilin Northeast Tigers 87.5 · Guangzhou Long-Lions 85).