Basketball · Latvia-Estonia BL · 17/10, 14:00
Prediction: VEF Riga vs Parnu
Prediction summary
Estimated points
156Total
VEF Riga87
Parnu69
1X2
VEF Riga
Parnu
Recent form · 10 last
VEF Riga
8-0-2 (W-D-L)
Parnu
3-0-7 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
VEF Riga
6–0
Parnu
(6 last)
- Parnu62-72VEF Riga
- VEF Riga90-80Parnu
- Parnu83-96VEF Riga
- VEF Riga75-70Parnu
- Parnu78-88VEF Riga
- VEF Riga80-64Parnu
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · VEF Riga 1605 · Parnu 1408
| VEF Riga | Parnu | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 84% | 16% |
| Market | 91% | 9% |
Estimated total (ours)
156 points · Bet365 line 157.5 · -1.5
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
Estimated points156VEF Riga 87 · Parnu 69
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours VEF Riga (rating 1605 vs 1408).
- VEF Riga is a clear favourite (90% market).
- H2H favours VEF Riga: 6-0.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
| VEF Riga | Parnu | |
|---|---|---|
| Points F|A (Last 10) | 88.4 / 72 | 75 / 78.8 |
| Points F|A (Last 5) | 91.6 / 64.8 | 76.6 / 79.2 |
| Est. result | 87 | 69 |
Est. total156
Line O/U157.5
Diff.1.5
The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.
Head-to-head (H2H) · VEF Riga 6–0–0 Parnu
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11/02/26 Latvia-Estonia BL | Parnu | 62-72 | VEF Riga |
| 13/12/25 Latvia-Estonia BL | VEF Riga | 90-80 | Parnu |
| 01/03/25 Latvia-Estonia BL | Parnu | 83-96 | VEF Riga |
| 02/11/24 Latvia-Estonia BL | VEF Riga | 75-70 | Parnu |
| 13/01/24 Latvia-Estonia BL | Parnu | 78-88 | VEF Riga |
| 11/10/23 Latvia-Estonia BL | VEF Riga | 80-64 | Parnu |
Standings · Latvia-Estonia BL
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| # | Team | P | W | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VEF Riga | 5 | 5 | 0 | 458 | 324 | 10 |
| 2 | Valmiera | 5 | 5 | 0 | 472 | 374 | 10 |
| 3 | Rigas Zelli | 4 | 4 | 0 | 377 | 303 | 8 |
| 4 | Ventspils | 5 | 4 | 1 | 447 | 416 | 9 |
| 5 | Tartu Ulikool | 4 | 2 | 2 | 336 | 332 | 6 |
| 6 | Kalev/Cramo | 4 | 2 | 2 | 304 | 320 | 6 |
| 7 | TALTECH | 4 | 2 | 2 | 306 | 304 | 6 |
| 8 | Rigas Ekselences Juniori | 4 | 2 | 2 | 337 | 348 | 6 |
| 9 | Keila | 3 | 1 | 2 | 217 | 266 | 4 |
| 10 | Parnu | 3 | 1 | 2 | 224 | 227 | 4 |
| 11 | Ogre | 3 | 1 | 2 | 264 | 283 | 4 |
| 12 | Liepajas Lauvas | 5 | 1 | 4 | 380 | 411 | 6 |
| 13 | Latvijas Universitate | 5 | 1 | 4 | 411 | 489 | 6 |
| 14 | KK Viimsi/Kesklinn KK | 4 | 0 | 4 | 298 | 347 | 4 |
| 15 | Keila Basket | 4 | 0 | 4 | 272 | 359 | 4 |
Common opponents 4 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | VEF Riga | Parnu |
|---|---|---|
| Liepajas Lauvas | 82-55 W | 76-73 W |
| Keila | 90-60 W | 70-75 L |
| Latvijas Universitate | 104-66 W | 72-71 W |
| Kalev/Cramo | 87-72 W | 78-79 L |
| Record vs common | 4 W 0 D 0 L | 2 W 0 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: VEF Riga (4 of 4 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
VEF Riga
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| Date | Opponent | FT | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10/10 | TALTECH Latvia-Estonia BL |
90-70 | W |
| 03/10 | Liepajas Lauvas Latvia-Estonia BL |
82-55 | W |
| 29/09 | Keila Latvia-Estonia BL |
90-60 | W |
| 26/09 | Ogre Latvia-Estonia BL |
92-73 | W |
| 23/09 | Latvijas Universitate Latvia-Estonia BL |
104-66 | W |
| 07/04 | Kalev/Cramo Latvia-Estonia BL |
87-72 | W |
| 03/04 | Valmiera Latvia-Estonia BL |
87-89 | L |
| 01/04 | Valmiera Latvia-Estonia BL |
83-97 | L |
| 29/03 | Valmiera Latvia-Estonia BL |
79-67 | W |
| 24/03 | Ventspils Latvia-Estonia BL |
90-71 | W |
Parnu
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| Date | Opponent | FT | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10/10 | Keila Latvia-Estonia BL |
70-75 | L |
| 03/10 | Kalev/Cramo Latvia-Estonia BL |
78-79 | L |
| 26/09 | Liepajas Lauvas Latvia-Estonia BL |
76-73 | W |
| 23/03 | Tartu Ulikool Latvia-Estonia BL |
88-89 | L |
| 20/03 | Tartu Ulikool Latvia-Estonia BL |
71-80 | L |
| 11/03 | KK Viimsi/Kesklinn KK Latvia-Estonia BL |
88-75 | W |
| 07/03 | Rigas Zelli Latvia-Estonia BL |
75-83 | L |
| 04/03 | Tartu Ulikool Latvia-Estonia BL |
70-91 | L |
| 11/02 | VEF Riga Latvia-Estonia BL |
62-72 | L |
| 07/02 | Latvijas Universitate Latvia-Estonia BL |
72-71 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in VEF Riga vs Parnu?
Our model gives 90% to VEF Riga.
How many points are expected in VEF Riga vs Parnu?
The model estimates 156 total points (VEF Riga 87 · Parnu 69).