Basketball · Latvia-Estonia BL · 24/10, 18:00
Prediction: Valmiera vs VEF Riga
Team pages: Valmiera · VEF Riga
Prediction summary
Estimated points
169.4Total
Valmiera83.1
VEF Riga86.3
1X2
Valmiera
VEF Riga
Recent form · 10 last
Valmiera
9-0-1 (W-D-L)
VEF Riga
8-0-2 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Valmiera
5–1
VEF Riga
(6 last)
- VEF Riga87-89Valmiera
- Valmiera97-83VEF Riga
- VEF Riga79-67Valmiera
- Valmiera110-77VEF Riga
- VEF Riga70-88Valmiera
- Valmiera109-95VEF Riga
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Valmiera 1639 · VEF Riga 1587
| Valmiera | VEF Riga | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 69% | 31% |
| Market | 34% | 66% |
Estimated total (ours)
169.4 points · Bet365 line 165.5 · +3.9
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
Estimated points169.4Valmiera 83.1 · VEF Riga 86.3
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Valmiera (rating 1639 vs 1587).
- H2H favours Valmiera: 5-1.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
| Valmiera | VEF Riga | |
|---|---|---|
| Points F|A (Last 10) | 90.6 / 77.7 | 88.3 / 72.1 |
| Points F|A (Last 5) | 94.2 / 72 | 88.6 / 66 |
| Est. result | 83 | 86 |
Est. total169.4
Line O/U165.5
Diff.3.9
The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.
Head-to-head (H2H) · Valmiera 5–0–1 VEF Riga
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 03/04/26 Latvia-Estonia BL | VEF Riga | 87-89 | Valmiera |
| 01/04/26 Latvia-Estonia BL | Valmiera | 97-83 | VEF Riga |
| 29/03/26 Latvia-Estonia BL | VEF Riga | 79-67 | Valmiera |
| 17/02/26 Latvia-Estonia BL | Valmiera | 110-77 | VEF Riga |
| 17/01/26 Latvia Cup | VEF Riga | 70-88 | Valmiera |
| 10/01/26 Latvia Cup | Valmiera | 109-95 | VEF Riga |
Standings · Latvia-Estonia BL
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| # | Team | P | W | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VEF Riga | 6 | 6 | 0 | 547 | 396 | 12 |
| 2 | Valmiera | 6 | 6 | 0 | 553 | 433 | 12 |
| 3 | Rigas Zelli | 5 | 5 | 0 | 462 | 372 | 10 |
| 4 | TALTECH | 6 | 4 | 2 | 473 | 464 | 10 |
| 5 | Ventspils | 6 | 4 | 2 | 529 | 501 | 10 |
| 6 | Tartu Ulikool | 5 | 3 | 2 | 425 | 403 | 8 |
| 7 | Kalev/Cramo | 5 | 3 | 2 | 404 | 399 | 8 |
| 8 | Ogre | 5 | 2 | 3 | 418 | 434 | 7 |
| 9 | Rigas Ekselences Juniori | 5 | 2 | 3 | 416 | 448 | 7 |
| 10 | Keila | 5 | 2 | 3 | 369 | 415 | 7 |
| 11 | Parnu | 4 | 1 | 3 | 296 | 316 | 5 |
| 12 | Liepajas Lauvas | 6 | 1 | 5 | 449 | 496 | 7 |
| 13 | KK Viimsi/Kesklinn KK | 6 | 1 | 5 | 455 | 509 | 7 |
| 14 | Latvijas Universitate | 7 | 1 | 6 | 556 | 658 | 8 |
| 15 | Keila Basket | 5 | 0 | 5 | 332 | 440 | 5 |
Common opponents 2 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Valmiera | VEF Riga |
|---|---|---|
| Latvijas Universitate | 81-59 W | 104-66 W |
| Keila | 106-82 W | 90-60 W |
| Record vs common | 2 W 0 D 0 L | 2 W 0 D 0 L |
Better against common opponents: VEF Riga (2 of 2 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Valmiera
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| Date | Opponent | FT | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17/10 | Latvijas Universitate Latvia-Estonia BL |
81-59 | W |
| 11/10 | KK Viimsi/Kesklinn KK Latvia-Estonia BL |
91-87 | W |
| 03/10 | Keila Latvia-Estonia BL |
106-82 | W |
| 29/09 | Keila Basket Latvia-Estonia BL |
95-56 | W |
| 25/09 | Ventspils Latvia-Estonia BL |
98-76 | W |
| 22/09 | Rigas Ekselences Juniori Latvia-Estonia BL |
82-73 | W |
| 08/04 | Tartu Ulikool Latvia-Estonia BL |
100-95 | W |
| 03/04 | VEF Riga Latvia-Estonia BL |
89-87 | W |
| 01/04 | VEF Riga Latvia-Estonia BL |
97-83 | W |
| 29/03 | VEF Riga Latvia-Estonia BL |
67-79 | L |
VEF Riga
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| Date | Opponent | FT | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17/10 | Parnu Latvia-Estonia BL |
89-72 | W |
| 10/10 | TALTECH Latvia-Estonia BL |
90-70 | W |
| 03/10 | Liepajas Lauvas Latvia-Estonia BL |
82-55 | W |
| 29/09 | Keila Latvia-Estonia BL |
90-60 | W |
| 26/09 | Ogre Latvia-Estonia BL |
92-73 | W |
| 23/09 | Latvijas Universitate Latvia-Estonia BL |
104-66 | W |
| 07/04 | Kalev/Cramo Latvia-Estonia BL |
87-72 | W |
| 03/04 | Valmiera Latvia-Estonia BL |
87-89 | L |
| 01/04 | Valmiera Latvia-Estonia BL |
83-97 | L |
| 29/03 | Valmiera Latvia-Estonia BL |
79-67 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Valmiera vs VEF Riga?
Our model gives 59% to VEF Riga.
How many points are expected in Valmiera vs VEF Riga?
The model estimates 169.4 total points (Valmiera 83.1 · VEF Riga 86.3).