Basketball · Latvia-Estonia BL · 24/10, 16:00

Prediction: Ogre vs Ventspils

Team pages: Ventspils

Prediction summary

Estimated points

170.5Total

Ogre84.2

Ventspils86.3

1X2 Even — no clear favourite

44% 56%

Ogre Ventspils

The bar shows the win probability, but the expected points are almost even: the model does not lean clearly on either side.

Recent form · 10 last

Ogre 3-0-7 (W-D-L)

WLLLLLLWWL

Ventspils 5-0-5 (W-D-L)

LLWLLWWWWL

Head-to-head

Ogre 2–4 Ventspils (6 last)

Ventspils104-82Ogre
Ogre66-75Ventspils
Ventspils92-79Ogre
Ogre114-98Ventspils
Ventspils83-85Ogre
Ogre70-71Ventspils

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Ogre 1446 · Ventspils 1529

	Ogre	Ventspils
Our model	51%	49%
Market	42%	58%

Estimated total (ours) 170.5 points · Bet365 line 172.5 · -2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

Estimated points170.5Ogre 84.2 · Ventspils 86.3

Match keys

H2H favours Ventspils: 4-2.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

	Ogre	Ventspils
Points F\|A (Last 10)	85.4 / 89.2	81 / 84.6
Points F\|A (Last 5)	83.6 / 86.8	90.6 / 80.6
Est. result	84	86

Est. total170.5

Line O/U172.5

Diff.2

The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.

Odds Bet365

12.20

21.61

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+3.5)1.80

2 (-3.5)1.87

Line ⓘ

Over 172.51.83

Under 172.51.83

Diff.: 2.4 · Est. total: 170.1

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 12:50

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.20 → 2.20	Pinn 2.21 ★
2	1.61 → 1.61	Pinn 1.61

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.7% Pinnacle margin 7.2%

Time*	1	2
12:38 +12’	2.20	1.61

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	2
10:47 +63’	2.21	1.61

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Ogre 2–0–4 Ventspils

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Date	Home	Score	Away
17/04/26 Latvia LBL	Ventspils	104-82	Ogre
14/04/26 Latvia LBL	Ogre	66-75	Ventspils
11/04/26 Latvia LBL	Ventspils	92-79	Ogre
17/01/26 Latvia Cup	Ogre	114-98	Ventspils
04/01/26 Latvia-Estonia BL	Ventspils	83-85	Ogre
31/10/25 Latvia-Estonia BL	Ogre	70-71	Ventspils

Standings · Latvia-Estonia BL

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	VEF Riga	6	6	0	547	396	12
2	Valmiera	6	6	0	553	433	12
3	Rigas Zelli	5	5	0	462	372	10
4	TALTECH	6	4	2	473	464	10
5	Ventspils	6	4	2	529	501	10
6	Tartu Ulikool	5	3	2	425	403	8
7	Kalev/Cramo	5	3	2	404	399	8
8	Ogre	5	2	3	418	434	7
9	Rigas Ekselences Juniori	5	2	3	416	448	7
10	Keila	5	2	3	369	415	7
11	Parnu	4	1	3	296	316	5
12	Liepajas Lauvas	6	1	5	449	496	7
13	KK Viimsi/Kesklinn KK	6	1	5	455	509	7
14	Latvijas Universitate	7	1	6	556	658	8
15	Keila Basket	5	0	5	332	440	5

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Ogre	Ventspils
TALTECH	78-82 L	82-85 L
Latvijas Universitate	106-81 W	108-92 W
VEF Riga	73-92 L	71-90 L
Kalev/Cramo	93-104 L	86-73 W
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 3 L	2 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Ventspils (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Ogre

WLLLLLLWWL

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
21/10	TALTECH Latvia-Estonia BL	78-82	L
16/10	KK Viimsi/Kesklinn KK Latvia-Estonia BL	76-69	W
10/10	Latvijas Universitate Latvia-Estonia BL	106-81	W
03/10	Rigas Zelli Latvia-Estonia BL	85-110	L
26/09	VEF Riga Latvia-Estonia BL	73-92	L
14/03	Latvijas Universitate Latvia-Estonia BL	101-106	L
10/03	Kalev/Cramo Latvia-Estonia BL	93-104	L
18/02	Rigas Zelli Latvia-Estonia BL	83-90	L
14/02	TALTECH Latvia-Estonia BL	76-78	L
11/02	Liepajas Lauvas Latvia-Estonia BL	83-80	W

Ventspils

LLWLLWWWWL

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
16/10	TALTECH Latvia-Estonia BL	82-85	L
11/10	Keila Basket Latvia-Estonia BL	85-68	W
10/10	Kalev/Cramo Latvia-Estonia BL	86-73	W
02/10	Tartu Ulikool Latvia-Estonia BL	92-85	W
28/09	Latvijas Universitate Latvia-Estonia BL	108-92	W
25/09	Valmiera Latvia-Estonia BL	76-98	L
24/03	VEF Riga Latvia-Estonia BL	71-90	L
22/03	VEF Riga Latvia-Estonia BL	72-69	W
18/03	VEF Riga Latvia-Estonia BL	54-77	L
14/03	Kalev/Cramo Latvia-Estonia BL	84-109	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Ogre vs Ventspils?

Our model does not see a clear favourite: the match is very even (Ogre 44% · Ventspils 56%).

How many points are expected in Ogre vs Ventspils?

The model estimates 170.5 total points (Ogre 84.2 · Ventspils 86.3).