Basketball · Latvia-Estonia BL · 17/10, 17:00
Prediction: Rigas Zelli vs Liepajas Lauvas
Team pages: Rigas Zelli · Liepajas Lauvas
Prediction summary
Estimated points
170Total
Rigas Zelli95.3
Liepajas Lauvas74.7
1X2
Rigas Zelli
Liepajas Lauvas
Recent form · 10 last
Rigas Zelli
8-0-2 (W-D-L)
Liepajas Lauvas
2-0-8 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Rigas Zelli
5–1
Liepajas Lauvas
(6 last)
- Rigas Zelli106-74Liepajas Lauvas
- Liepajas Lauvas92-102Rigas Zelli
- Rigas Zelli97-69Liepajas Lauvas
- Liepajas Lauvas70-86Rigas Zelli
- Rigas Zelli78-87Liepajas Lauvas
- Liepajas Lauvas77-79Rigas Zelli
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Rigas Zelli 1639 · Liepajas Lauvas 1394
| Rigas Zelli | Liepajas Lauvas | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 87% | 13% |
| Market | 95% | 5% |
Estimated total (ours)
170 points · Bet365 line 164.5 · +5.5
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
Estimated points170Rigas Zelli 95.3 · Liepajas Lauvas 74.7
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Rigas Zelli (rating 1639 vs 1394).
- Rigas Zelli is a clear favourite (93% market).
- H2H favours Rigas Zelli: 5-1.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
| Rigas Zelli | Liepajas Lauvas | |
|---|---|---|
| Points F|A (Last 10) | 92.1 / 80.4 | 80.3 / 84.2 |
| Points F|A (Last 5) | 95.4 / 81 | 76 / 82.2 |
| Est. result | 95 | 75 |
Est. total170
Line O/U164.5
Diff.5.5
The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.
Head-to-head (H2H) · Rigas Zelli 5–0–1 Liepajas Lauvas
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18/04/26 Latvia LBL | Rigas Zelli | 106-74 | Liepajas Lauvas |
| 15/04/26 Latvia LBL | Liepajas Lauvas | 92-102 | Rigas Zelli |
| 11/04/26 Latvia LBL | Rigas Zelli | 97-69 | Liepajas Lauvas |
| 18/01/26 Latvia Cup | Liepajas Lauvas | 70-86 | Rigas Zelli |
| 10/01/26 Latvia Cup | Rigas Zelli | 78-87 | Liepajas Lauvas |
| 12/12/25 Latvia-Estonia BL | Liepajas Lauvas | 77-79 | Rigas Zelli |
Standings · Latvia-Estonia BL
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| # | Team | P | W | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VEF Riga | 5 | 5 | 0 | 458 | 324 | 10 |
| 2 | Valmiera | 5 | 5 | 0 | 472 | 374 | 10 |
| 3 | Rigas Zelli | 4 | 4 | 0 | 377 | 303 | 8 |
| 4 | Ventspils | 5 | 4 | 1 | 447 | 416 | 9 |
| 5 | Tartu Ulikool | 4 | 2 | 2 | 336 | 332 | 6 |
| 6 | Kalev/Cramo | 4 | 2 | 2 | 304 | 320 | 6 |
| 7 | TALTECH | 4 | 2 | 2 | 306 | 304 | 6 |
| 8 | Rigas Ekselences Juniori | 4 | 2 | 2 | 337 | 348 | 6 |
| 9 | Keila | 3 | 1 | 2 | 217 | 266 | 4 |
| 10 | Parnu | 3 | 1 | 2 | 224 | 227 | 4 |
| 11 | Ogre | 3 | 1 | 2 | 264 | 283 | 4 |
| 12 | Liepajas Lauvas | 5 | 1 | 4 | 380 | 411 | 6 |
| 13 | Latvijas Universitate | 5 | 1 | 4 | 411 | 489 | 6 |
| 14 | KK Viimsi/Kesklinn KK | 4 | 0 | 4 | 298 | 347 | 4 |
| 15 | Keila Basket | 4 | 0 | 4 | 272 | 359 | 4 |
Common opponents 4 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Rigas Zelli | Liepajas Lauvas |
|---|---|---|
| TALTECH | 79-73 W | 71-78 L |
| Kalev/Cramo | 100-102 L | 94-97 L |
| KK Viimsi/Kesklinn KK | 90-74 W | 71-76 L |
| Parnu | 83-75 W | 73-76 L |
| Record vs common | 3 W 0 D 1 L | 0 W 0 D 4 L |
Better against common opponents: Rigas Zelli (4 of 4 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Rigas Zelli
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| Date | Opponent | FT | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 09/10 | Tartu Ulikool Latvia-Estonia BL |
94-74 | W |
| 03/10 | Ogre Latvia-Estonia BL |
110-85 | W |
| 26/09 | TALTECH Latvia-Estonia BL |
79-73 | W |
| 25/09 | Keila Basket Latvia-Estonia BL |
94-71 | W |
| 25/03 | Kalev/Cramo Latvia-Estonia BL |
100-102 | L |
| 22/03 | Kalev/Cramo Latvia-Estonia BL |
86-93 | L |
| 20/03 | Kalev/Cramo Latvia-Estonia BL |
83-69 | W |
| 14/03 | KK Viimsi/Kesklinn KK Latvia-Estonia BL |
90-74 | W |
| 13/03 | Keila Basket Latvia-Estonia BL |
102-88 | W |
| 07/03 | Parnu Latvia-Estonia BL |
83-75 | W |
Liepajas Lauvas
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| Date | Opponent | FT | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14/10 | TALTECH Latvia-Estonia BL |
71-78 | L |
| 11/10 | Rigas Ekselences Juniori Latvia-Estonia BL |
98-88 | W |
| 03/10 | VEF Riga Latvia-Estonia BL |
55-82 | L |
| 30/09 | BC Tartu Latvia-Estonia BL |
83-87 | L |
| 26/09 | Parnu Latvia-Estonia BL |
73-76 | L |
| 14/03 | VEF Riga Latvia-Estonia BL |
74-86 | L |
| 10/03 | Latvijas Universitate Latvia-Estonia BL |
102-83 | W |
| 04/03 | KK Viimsi/Kesklinn KK Latvia-Estonia BL |
71-76 | L |
| 18/02 | Ventspils Latvia-Estonia BL |
82-89 | L |
| 14/02 | Kalev/Cramo Latvia-Estonia BL |
94-97 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Rigas Zelli vs Liepajas Lauvas?
Our model gives 93% to Rigas Zelli.
How many points are expected in Rigas Zelli vs Liepajas Lauvas?
The model estimates 170 total points (Rigas Zelli 95.3 · Liepajas Lauvas 74.7).