Basketball · France Ligue A · 31/10, 20:30

Prediction: Bourg vs Nanterre

Team pages: Bourg · Nanterre

Prediction summary

Estimated points

169.4Total

Bourg86.7

Nanterre82.8

1X2

61% 39%

Bourg Nanterre

Recent form · 10 last

Bourg 4-0-6 (W-D-L)

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Nanterre 5-0-5 (W-D-L)

WLWLLWLWLW

Head-to-head

Bourg 4–2 Nanterre (6 last)

Nanterre101-93Bourg
Bourg86-83Nanterre
Bourg100-97Nanterre
Nanterre61-86Bourg
Bourg90-74Nanterre
Nanterre90-84Bourg

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Bourg 1446 · Nanterre 1500

	Bourg	Nanterre
Our model	55%	45%
Market	63%	38%

Estimated total (ours) 169.4 points · Bet365 line 168.5 · +0.9

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

Estimated points169.4Bourg 86.7 · Nanterre 82.8

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Nanterre (rating 1446 vs 1500).
H2H favours Bourg: 4-2.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

	Bourg	Nanterre
Points F\|A (Last 10)	89.2 / 88.4	80.2 / 79.8
Points F\|A (Last 5)	89 / 87.8	82.6 / 75.8
Est. result	87	83

Est. total169.4

Line O/U168.5

Diff.0.9

The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.

Odds Bet365

11.50

22.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-4)1.83

2 (+4)1.83

Line ⓘ

Over 168.51.83

Under 168.51.83

Diff.: 0.3 · Est. total: 168.8

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 18:57

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.50 → 1.50	Bet365 1.50
2	2.50 → 2.50	Bet365 2.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 6.7%

Time*	1	2
18:29 +28’	1.50	2.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Bourg 4–0–2 Nanterre

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Date	Home	Score	Away
17/01/26 France Ligue A	Nanterre	101-93	Bourg
07/12/25 France Ligue A	Bourg	86-83	Nanterre
25/01/25 France Ligue A	Bourg	100-97	Nanterre
05/10/24 France Ligue A	Nanterre	61-86	Bourg
20/05/24 France Ligue A	Bourg	90-74	Nanterre
18/05/24 France Ligue A	Nanterre	90-84	Bourg

Standings · France Ligue A

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA
1	Dijon	5	5	0	461	393
2	Paris	5	5	0	465	408
3	Asvel Lyon-Villeurbanne	5	5	0	438	395
4	Chalon	5	4	1	459	387
5	Le Mans	5	4	1	490	449
6	Nanterre	5	3	2	413	379
7	Cholet	5	2	3	401	424
8	Strasbourg	5	2	3	394	430
9	Bourg	5	2	3	445	439
10	Roanne	5	2	3	396	426
11	Pau-Orthez	5	2	3	391	422
12	Limoges	5	1	4	437	447
13	Boulazac	5	1	4	385	428
14	Nancy	5	1	4	370	414
15	Saint-Quentin	5	1	4	438	486
16	Gravelines	5	0	5	399	455

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Bourg	Nanterre
Gravelines	89-81 W	101-73 W
Le Mans	90-91 L	64-55 W
Monaco	103-114 L	78-89 L
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 2 L	2 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Nanterre (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Bourg

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
24/10	Gravelines France Ligue A	89-81	W
18/10	Le Mans France Ligue A	90-91	L
10/10	Boulazac France Ligue A	73-84	L
03/10	Chalon France Ligue A	90-77	W
26/09	Saint-Quentin France Ligue A	103-106	L
27/05	Monaco France Ligue A	103-114	L
25/05	Monaco France Ligue A	75-81	L
20/05	Strasbourg France Ligue A	91-71	W
16/05	Gravelines France Ligue A	95-78	W
09/05	Dijon France Ligue A	83-101	L

Nanterre

WLWLLWLWLW

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
24/10	Cholet France Ligue A	86-69	W
17/10	Nancy France Ligue A	65-80	L
10/10	Gravelines France Ligue A	101-73	W
02/10	Roanne France Ligue A	83-93	L
26/09	Pau-Orthez France Ligue A	78-64	W
08/06	Monaco France Ligue A	78-89	L
06/06	Monaco France Ligue A	61-83	L
03/06	Monaco France Ligue A	98-89	W
01/06	Monaco France Ligue A	88-103	L
27/05	Le Mans France Ligue A	64-55	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Bourg vs Nanterre?

Our model gives 61% to Bourg.

How many points are expected in Bourg vs Nanterre?

The model estimates 169.4 total points (Bourg 86.7 · Nanterre 82.8).