Basketball · France Ligue A · 08/11, 16:30

Prediction: Paris vs Bourg

Team pages: Paris · Bourg

Prediction summary

Estimated points

180.8Total

Paris94.9

Bourg85.9

1X2

74% 26%

Paris Bourg

Recent form · 10 last

Paris 7-0-3 (W-D-L)

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Bourg 4-0-6 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Paris 4–2 Bourg (6 last)

Paris85-95Bourg
Paris74-78Bourg
Bourg75-91Paris
Bourg93-103Paris
Paris117-103Bourg
Paris100-89Bourg

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Paris 1596 · Bourg 1471

	Paris	Bourg
Our model	78%	22%
Market	74%	26%

Estimated total (ours) 180.8 points · Bet365 line 180.5 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

Estimated points180.8Paris 94.9 · Bourg 85.9

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Paris (rating 1596 vs 1471).
Paris is a clear favourite (74% market).
H2H favours Paris: 4-2.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

	Paris	Bourg
Points F\|A (Last 10)	93.5 / 88.8	90.7 / 88.4
Points F\|A (Last 5)	98 / 88	88 / 86.8
Est. result	95	86

Est. total180.8

Line O/U180.5

Diff.0.3

The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.

Odds Bet365

11.27

23.55

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-8)1.83

2 (+8)1.83

Line ⓘ

Over 180.51.83

Under 180.51.83

Diff.: 0.2 · Est. total: 180.7

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 13:53

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.27 → 1.27	Bet365 1.27
2	3.55 → 3.55	Bet365 3.55

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.2%

Time*	1	2
13:40 +13’	1.27	3.55

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Paris 4–0–2 Bourg

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Date	Home	Score	Away
22/03/26 France Ligue A	Paris	85-95	Bourg
20/02/26 France Leaders Cup LNB	Paris	74-78	Bourg
15/11/25 France Ligue A	Bourg	75-91	Paris
08/06/25 France Ligue A	Bourg	93-103	Paris
06/06/25 France Ligue A	Paris	117-103	Bourg
04/06/25 France Ligue A	Paris	100-89	Bourg

Standings · France Ligue A

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA
1	Paris	7	6	1	671	614
2	Dijon	6	5	1	555	501
3	Le Mans	6	5	1	596	546
4	Asvel Lyon-Villeurbanne	6	5	1	532	494
5	Chalon	6	4	2	571	503
6	Nanterre	6	4	2	514	477
7	Strasbourg	7	4	3	580	606
8	Roanne	6	3	3	485	495
9	Cholet	7	3	4	577	602
10	Boulazac	6	2	4	484	517
11	Nancy	6	2	4	478	508
12	Pau-Orthez	6	2	4	488	528
13	Bourg	6	2	4	543	540
14	Saint-Quentin	7	2	5	631	678
15	Limoges	6	1	5	526	546
16	Gravelines	6	0	6	468	544

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Paris	Bourg
Chalon	116-112 W	90-77 W
Boulazac	90-75 W	73-84 L
Strasbourg	98-84 W	91-71 W
Le Mans	103-101 W	90-91 L
Monaco	92-101 L	103-114 L
Record vs common	4 W 0 D 1 L	2 W 0 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Paris (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Paris

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
03/11	Cholet France Ligue A	90-94	L
01/11	Chalon France Ligue A	116-112	W
25/10	Roanne France Ligue A	96-75	W
18/10	Boulazac France Ligue A	90-75	W
11/10	Strasbourg France Ligue A	98-84	W
04/10	Le Mans France Ligue A	103-101	W
27/09	Nancy France Ligue A	78-73	W
23/06	Monaco France Ligue A	92-101	L
21/06	Monaco France Ligue A	84-96	L
19/06	Monaco France Ligue A	88-77	W

Bourg

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
31/10	Nanterre France Ligue A	98-101	L
24/10	Gravelines France Ligue A	89-81	W
18/10	Le Mans France Ligue A	90-91	L
10/10	Boulazac France Ligue A	73-84	L
03/10	Chalon France Ligue A	90-77	W
26/09	Saint-Quentin France Ligue A	103-106	L
27/05	Monaco France Ligue A	103-114	L
25/05	Monaco France Ligue A	75-81	L
20/05	Strasbourg France Ligue A	91-71	W
16/05	Gravelines France Ligue A	95-78	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Paris vs Bourg?

Our model gives 74% to Paris.

How many points are expected in Paris vs Bourg?

The model estimates 180.8 total points (Paris 94.9 · Bourg 85.9).