Basketball · France Ligue A · 27/09, 19:00

Prediction: Cholet vs Asvel Lyon-Villeurbanne

Prediction summary

Estimated points

164Total

Cholet81.8

Asvel Lyon-Villeurbanne82.2

1X2 Even — no clear favourite

49% 51%

Cholet Asvel Lyon-Villeurbanne

The bar shows the win probability, but the expected points are almost even: the model does not lean clearly on either side.

Recent form · 10 last

Cholet 6-0-4 (W-D-L)

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Asvel Lyon-Villeurbanne 7-0-3 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Cholet 5–1 Asvel Lyon-Villeurbanne (6 last)

Asvel Lyon-Villeurbanne75-80Cholet
Cholet77-65Asvel Lyon-Villeurbanne
Asvel Lyon-Villeurbanne75-67Cholet
Cholet93-85Asvel Lyon-Villeurbanne
Asvel Lyon-Villeurbanne82-93Cholet
Asvel Lyon-Villeurbanne85-87Cholet

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Cholet 1580 · Asvel Lyon-Villeurbanne 1500

	Cholet	Asvel Lyon-Villeurbanne
Our model	73%	27%
Market	44%	56%

Estimated total (ours) 164 points · Bet365 line 169.5 · -5.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

Estimated points164Cholet 81.8 · Asvel Lyon-Villeurbanne 82.2

Match keys

H2H favours Cholet: 5-1.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

	Cholet	Asvel Lyon-Villeurbanne
Points F\|A (Last 10)	81.8 / 81.8	82.1 / 78.8
Points F\|A (Last 5)	84.8 / 90.6	76 / 78.4
Est. result	82	82

Est. total164

Line O/U169.5

Diff.5.5

The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.

Odds Bet365

12.12

21.65

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+2.5)1.83

2 (-2.5)1.83

Line ⓘ

Over 169.51.83

Under 169.51.83

Diff.: 7.25 · Est. total: 162.25

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 11:57

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.12 → 2.12	Bet365 2.12
2	1.65 → 1.65	Bet365 1.65

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8%

Time*	1	2
10:59 +58’	2.12	1.65

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Cholet 5–0–1 Asvel Lyon-Villeurbanne

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Date	Home	Score	Away
30/05/26 France Ligue A	Asvel Lyon-Villeurbanne	75-80	Cholet
28/05/26 France Ligue A	Cholet	77-65	Asvel Lyon-Villeurbanne
26/05/26 France Ligue A	Asvel Lyon-Villeurbanne	75-67	Cholet
28/03/26 France Ligue A	Cholet	93-85	Asvel Lyon-Villeurbanne
20/02/26 France Leaders Cup LNB	Asvel Lyon-Villeurbanne	82-93	Cholet
14/12/25 France Ligue A	Asvel Lyon-Villeurbanne	85-87	Cholet

Standings · France Ligue A

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA
1	Dijon	1	1	0	81	72
2	Asvel Lyon-Villeurbanne	0	0	0	0	0
2	Gravelines	0	0	0	0	0
2	Boulazac	0	0	0	0	0
2	Cholet	0	0	0	0	0
2	Pau-Orthez	0	0	0	0	0
2	Chalon	0	0	0	0	0
2	Bourg	0	0	0	0	0
2	Le Mans	0	0	0	0	0
2	Limoges	0	0	0	0	0
2	Nanterre	0	0	0	0	0
2	Paris	0	0	0	0	0
2	Roanne	0	0	0	0	0
2	Saint-Quentin	0	0	0	0	0
2	Nancy	0	0	0	0	0
16	Strasbourg	1	0	1	72	81

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Cholet

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
09/06	Paris France Ligue A	91-94	L
07/06	Paris France Ligue A	86-95	L
04/06	Paris France Ligue A	77-100	L
02/06	Paris France Ligue A	90-89	W
30/05	Asvel Lyon-Villeurbanne France Ligue A	80-75	W
28/05	Asvel Lyon-Villeurbanne France Ligue A	77-65	W
26/05	Asvel Lyon-Villeurbanne France Ligue A	67-75	L
16/05	Nanterre France Ligue A	79-66	W
10/05	Nancy France Ligue A	94-91	W
02/05	Boulazac France Ligue A	77-68	W

Asvel Lyon-Villeurbanne

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
30/05	Cholet France Ligue A	75-80	L
28/05	Cholet France Ligue A	65-77	L
26/05	Cholet France Ligue A	75-67	W
16/05	Paris France Ligue A	76-87	L
09/05	Strasbourg France Ligue A	89-81	W
05/05	Bourg France Ligue A	91-77	W
01/05	Gravelines France Ligue A	88-79	W
19/04	Monaco France Ligue A	87-83	W
12/04	Saint-Quentin France Ligue A	86-70	W
05/04	Chalon France Ligue A	89-87	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Cholet vs Asvel Lyon-Villeurbanne?

Our model does not see a clear favourite: the match is very even (Cholet 49% · Asvel Lyon-Villeurbanne 51%).

How many points are expected in Cholet vs Asvel Lyon-Villeurbanne?

The model estimates 164 total points (Cholet 81.8 · Asvel Lyon-Villeurbanne 82.2).