Basketball · France Ligue A · 18/10, 19:00

Prediction: Le Mans vs Bourg

Team pages: Le Mans · Bourg

Prediction summary

Estimated points

173.5Total

Le Mans91

Bourg82.4

1X2

73% 27%

Le Mans Bourg

Recent form · 10 last

Le Mans 7-0-3 (W-D-L)

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Bourg 3-0-7 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Le Mans 3–3 Bourg (6 last)

Bourg98-86Le Mans
Le Mans79-77Bourg
Le Mans84-82Bourg
Le Mans96-92Bourg
Bourg94-87Le Mans
Le Mans66-89Bourg

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Le Mans 1542 · Bourg 1415

	Le Mans	Bourg
Our model	78%	22%
Market	72%	28%

Estimated total (ours) 173.5 points · Bet365 line 177.5 · -4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

Estimated points173.5Le Mans 91 · Bourg 82.4

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Le Mans (rating 1542 vs 1415).
Le Mans is a clear favourite (73% market).

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

	Le Mans	Bourg
Points F\|A (Last 10)	91.2 / 83.9	86.1 / 89.2
Points F\|A (Last 5)	86.2 / 88.2	88.8 / 92.4
Est. result	91	82

Est. total173.5

Line O/U177.5

Diff.4

The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.

Odds Bet365

11.29

23.30

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-7.5)1.83

2 (+7.5)1.83

Line ⓘ

Over 177.51.83

Under 177.51.83

Diff.: 2.3 · Est. total: 175.2

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 20:03

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.29 → 1.29	Bet365 1.29
2	3.30 → 3.30	Bet365 3.30

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.6%

Time*	1	2
19:11 +51’	1.29	3.30

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Le Mans 3–0–3 Bourg

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Date	Home	Score	Away
14/03/26 France Ligue A	Bourg	98-86	Le Mans
21/02/26 France Leaders Cup LNB	Le Mans	79-77	Bourg
18/10/25 France Ligue A	Le Mans	84-82	Bourg
29/04/25 France Ligue A	Le Mans	96-92	Bourg
07/12/24 France Ligue A	Bourg	94-87	Le Mans
31/08/24 Club Friendlies	Le Mans	66-89	Bourg

Standings · France Ligue A

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA
1	Dijon	3	3	0	278	229
2	Asvel Lyon-Villeurbanne	3	3	0	263	227
3	Paris	3	3	0	279	258
4	Roanne	3	2	1	251	258
5	Chalon	3	2	1	267	231
6	Le Mans	3	2	1	302	287
7	Cholet	3	2	1	255	252
8	Nanterre	3	2	1	262	230
9	Limoges	3	1	2	262	265
10	Strasbourg	3	1	2	243	254
11	Boulazac	3	1	2	238	241
12	Saint-Quentin	3	1	2	268	293
13	Bourg	3	1	2	266	267
14	Gravelines	3	0	3	235	274
15	Pau-Orthez	3	0	3	204	252
16	Nancy	3	0	3	216	271

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Le Mans	Bourg
Saint-Quentin	98-87 W	103-106 L
Gravelines	103-97 W	95-78 W
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 0 L	1 W 0 D 1 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Le Mans

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
11/10	Saint-Quentin France Ligue A	98-87	W
04/10	Paris France Ligue A	101-103	L
26/09	Gravelines France Ligue A	103-97	W
27/05	Nanterre France Ligue A	55-64	L
25/05	Nanterre France Ligue A	74-90	L
16/05	Limoges France Ligue A	101-84	W
09/05	Saint-Quentin France Ligue A	88-85	W
30/04	Nancy France Ligue A	102-74	W
18/04	Gravelines France Ligue A	96-83	W
11/04	Le Portel France Ligue A	94-72	W

Bourg

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
10/10	Boulazac France Ligue A	73-84	L
03/10	Chalon France Ligue A	90-77	W
26/09	Saint-Quentin France Ligue A	103-106	L
27/05	Monaco France Ligue A	103-114	L
25/05	Monaco France Ligue A	75-81	L
20/05	Strasbourg France Ligue A	91-71	W
16/05	Gravelines France Ligue A	95-78	W
09/05	Dijon France Ligue A	83-101	L
05/05	Asvel Lyon-Villeurbanne France Ligue A	77-91	L
03/05	Saint-Quentin France Ligue A	71-89	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Le Mans vs Bourg?

Our model gives 73% to Le Mans.

How many points are expected in Le Mans vs Bourg?

The model estimates 173.5 total points (Le Mans 91 · Bourg 82.4).