Basketball · France Ligue A · 15/11, 19:00

Prediction: Le Mans vs Asvel Lyon-Villeurbanne

Team pages: Le Mans · Asvel Lyon-Villeurbanne

Prediction summary

Estimated points

172.9Total

Le Mans88.4

Asvel Lyon-Villeurbanne84.5

1X2

61% 39%

Le Mans Asvel Lyon-Villeurbanne

Recent form · 10 last

Le Mans 7-0-3 (W-D-L)

WLLWLWWWWW

Asvel Lyon-Villeurbanne 7-0-3 (W-D-L)

WLLWWWWWLW

Head-to-head

Le Mans 1–5 Asvel Lyon-Villeurbanne (6 last)

Le Mans88-91Asvel Lyon-Villeurbanne
Asvel Lyon-Villeurbanne91-66Le Mans
Le Mans97-80Asvel Lyon-Villeurbanne
Asvel Lyon-Villeurbanne85-71Le Mans
Le Mans87-100Asvel Lyon-Villeurbanne
Asvel Lyon-Villeurbanne89-75Le Mans

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Le Mans 1591 · Asvel Lyon-Villeurbanne 1526

	Le Mans	Asvel Lyon-Villeurbanne
Our model	71%	29%
Market	58%	42%

Estimated total (ours) 172.9 points · Bet365 line 178.5 · -5.6

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

Estimated points172.9Le Mans 88.4 · Asvel Lyon-Villeurbanne 84.5

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Le Mans (rating 1591 vs 1526).
H2H favours Asvel Lyon-Villeurbanne: 5-1.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

	Le Mans	Asvel Lyon-Villeurbanne
Points F\|A (Last 10)	92 / 85.3	85.3 / 81.5
Points F\|A (Last 5)	97.2 / 83	94.2 / 88.2
Est. result	88	85

Est. total172.9

Line O/U178.5

Diff.5.6

The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.

Odds Bet365

11.59

22.22

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-3)1.83

2 (+3)1.83

Line ⓘ

Over 178.51.83

Under 178.51.83

Diff.: 6.45 · Est. total: 172.05

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 18:50

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.59 → 1.59	Bet365 1.59
2	2.22 → 2.22	Bet365 2.22

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8%

Time*	1	2
18:48 +2’	1.59	2.22

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Le Mans 1–0–5 Asvel Lyon-Villeurbanne

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Date	Home	Score	Away
25/01/26 France Ligue A	Le Mans	88-91	Asvel Lyon-Villeurbanne
11/10/25 France Ligue A	Asvel Lyon-Villeurbanne	91-66	Le Mans
12/05/25 France Ligue A	Le Mans	97-80	Asvel Lyon-Villeurbanne
22/09/24 France Ligue A	Asvel Lyon-Villeurbanne	85-71	Le Mans
27/01/24 France Ligue A	Le Mans	87-100	Asvel Lyon-Villeurbanne
17/09/23 France Ligue A	Asvel Lyon-Villeurbanne	89-75	Le Mans

Standings · France Ligue A

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA
1	Paris	8	7	1	778	691
2	Dijon	7	6	1	652	572
3	Le Mans	7	6	1	690	615
4	Asvel Lyon-Villeurbanne	7	6	1	638	591
5	Nanterre	7	5	2	607	558
6	Chalon	7	4	3	652	596
7	Roanne	7	4	3	565	563
8	Strasbourg	8	4	4	649	700
9	Boulazac	7	3	4	567	586
10	Cholet	8	3	5	648	699
11	Pau-Orthez	7	2	5	585	634
12	Limoges	7	2	5	605	623
13	Bourg	7	2	5	620	647
14	Nancy	7	2	5	555	587
15	Saint-Quentin	8	2	6	699	758
16	Gravelines	7	0	7	537	627

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Le Mans	Asvel Lyon-Villeurbanne
Pau-Orthez	106-97 W	106-97 W
Saint-Quentin	98-87 W	94-99 L
Gravelines	103-97 W	70-65 W
Limoges	101-84 W	97-94 W
Record vs common	4 W 0 D 0 L	3 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Le Mans (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Le Mans

WLLWLWWWWW

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
08/11	Strasbourg France Ligue A	94-69	W
31/10	Pau-Orthez France Ligue A	106-97	W
24/10	Boulazac France Ligue A	97-72	W
18/10	Bourg France Ligue A	91-90	W
11/10	Saint-Quentin France Ligue A	98-87	W
04/10	Paris France Ligue A	101-103	L
26/09	Gravelines France Ligue A	103-97	W
27/05	Nanterre France Ligue A	55-64	L
25/05	Nanterre France Ligue A	74-90	L
16/05	Limoges France Ligue A	101-84	W

Asvel Lyon-Villeurbanne

WLLWWWWWLW

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
07/11	Pau-Orthez France Ligue A	106-97	W
01/11	Saint-Quentin France Ligue A	94-99	L
25/10	Nancy France Ligue A	78-74	W
17/10	Limoges France Ligue A	97-94	W
11/10	Roanne France Ligue A	96-77	W
04/10	Gravelines France Ligue A	70-65	W
27/09	Cholet France Ligue A	97-85	W
30/05	Cholet France Ligue A	75-80	L
28/05	Cholet France Ligue A	65-77	L
26/05	Cholet France Ligue A	75-67	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Le Mans vs Asvel Lyon-Villeurbanne?

Our model gives 61% to Le Mans.

How many points are expected in Le Mans vs Asvel Lyon-Villeurbanne?

The model estimates 172.9 total points (Le Mans 88.4 · Asvel Lyon-Villeurbanne 84.5).