Basketball · Spain Liga ACB · 08/11, 12:30

Prediction: San Pablo Burgos vs Valencia

Team pages: San Pablo Burgos · Valencia

Prediction summary

Estimated points

182.4Total

San Pablo Burgos88.1

Valencia94.3

1X2

33% 67%

San Pablo Burgos Valencia

Recent form · 10 last

San Pablo Burgos 5-0-5 (W-D-L)

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Valencia 7-0-3 (W-D-L)

LWWWLWLWWW

Head-to-head

San Pablo Burgos 1–5 Valencia (6 last)

San Pablo Burgos74-79Valencia
Valencia100-82San Pablo Burgos
Valencia84-70San Pablo Burgos
San Pablo Burgos65-69Valencia
San Pablo Burgos78-83Valencia
Valencia81-99San Pablo Burgos

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · San Pablo Burgos 1473 · Valencia 1623

	San Pablo Burgos	Valencia
Our model	41%	59%
Market	30%	70%

Estimated total (ours) 182.4 points · Bet365 line 183.5 · -1.1

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

Estimated points182.4San Pablo Burgos 88.1 · Valencia 94.3

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Valencia (rating 1473 vs 1623).
Valencia is a clear favourite (67% market).
H2H favours Valencia: 5-1.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

	San Pablo Burgos	Valencia
Points F\|A (Last 10)	89.9 / 88.9	100.4 / 87.5
Points F\|A (Last 5)	86.2 / 85.4	98.8 / 83.6
Est. result	88	94

Est. total182.4

Line O/U183.5

Diff.1.1

The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.

Odds Bet365

13.10

21.36

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+6.5)1.87

2 (-6.5)1.87

Line ⓘ

Over 183.51.87

Under 183.51.87

Diff.: 0.15 · Est. total: 183.35

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 09:49

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10
2	1.36 → 1.36	Bet365 1.36

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 6%

Time*	1	2
09:37 +13’	3.10	1.36

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · San Pablo Burgos 1–0–5 Valencia

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Date	Home	Score	Away
29/03/26 Spain Liga ACB	San Pablo Burgos	74-79	Valencia
02/11/25 Spain Liga ACB	Valencia	100-82	San Pablo Burgos
10/05/22 Spain Liga ACB	Valencia	84-70	San Pablo Burgos
16/10/21 Spain Liga ACB	San Pablo Burgos	65-69	Valencia
17/01/21 Spain Liga ACB	San Pablo Burgos	78-83	Valencia
08/11/20 Spain Liga ACB	Valencia	81-99	San Pablo Burgos

Standings · Spain Liga ACB

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA
1	Real Madrid	6	6	0	654	526
2	Valencia	6	4	2	594	523
3	Baskonia	6	4	2	567	497
4	Tenerife	6	4	2	527	479
5	Breogan	6	4	2	628	592
6	Zaragoza	6	4	2	552	523
7	Barcelona	6	4	2	582	570
8	Bilbao	6	4	2	557	556
9	Unicaja Malaga	6	3	3	530	507
10	UCAM Murcia	6	3	3	560	563
11	Monbus Obradoiro	6	3	3	533	576
12	Girona	6	3	3	543	594
13	San Pablo Burgos	6	2	4	528	525
14	Joventut	6	2	4	551	549
15	Coruna	6	2	4	540	599
16	BC Andorra	6	1	5	507	579
17	Forca Lleida	6	1	5	557	641
18	Manresa	6	0	6	506	617

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	San Pablo Burgos	Valencia
Forca Lleida	94-81 W	100-105 L
Baskonia	97-98 L	84-75 W
BC Andorra	85-83 W	111-79 W
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 1 L	2 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Valencia (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

San Pablo Burgos

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
01/11	Real Madrid Spain Liga ACB	79-90	L
24/10	Manresa Spain Liga ACB	99-81	W
17/10	Monbus Obradoiro Spain Liga ACB	72-79	L
11/10	Bilbao Spain Liga ACB	87-96	L
04/10	Forca Lleida Spain Liga ACB	94-81	W
27/09	Baskonia Spain Liga ACB	97-98	L
29/05	Granada Spain Liga ACB	110-105	W
24/05	Joventut Spain Liga ACB	79-86	L
17/05	BC Andorra Spain Liga ACB	85-83	W
14/05	Unicaja Malaga Spain Liga ACB	97-90	W

Valencia

LWWWLWLWWW

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
01/11	BC Andorra Spain Liga ACB	111-79	W
25/10	Baskonia Spain Liga ACB	84-75	W
18/10	UCAM Murcia Spain Liga ACB	116-93	W
11/10	Barcelona Spain Liga ACB	86-89	L
04/10	Zaragoza Spain Liga ACB	97-82	W
27/09	Forca Lleida Spain Liga ACB	100-105	L
24/06	Barcelona Spain Liga ACB	108-84	W
22/06	Barcelona Spain Liga ACB	88-80	W
20/06	Barcelona Spain Liga ACB	102-75	W
18/06	Barcelona Spain Liga ACB	112-113	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in San Pablo Burgos vs Valencia?

Our model gives 67% to Valencia.

How many points are expected in San Pablo Burgos vs Valencia?

The model estimates 182.4 total points (San Pablo Burgos 88.1 · Valencia 94.3).