Basketball · Spain Liga ACB · 08/11, 19:00

Prediction: Real Madrid vs UCAM Murcia

Team pages: Real Madrid · UCAM Murcia

Prediction summary

Estimated points

191.7Total

Real Madrid102.6

UCAM Murcia89.2

1X2

83% 17%

Real Madrid UCAM Murcia

Recent form · 10 last

Real Madrid 7-0-3 (W-D-L)

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UCAM Murcia 5-0-5 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Real Madrid 6–0 UCAM Murcia (6 last)

Real Madrid131-123UCAM Murcia
UCAM Murcia80-91Real Madrid
Real Madrid80-75UCAM Murcia
UCAM Murcia64-85Real Madrid
UCAM Murcia73-84Real Madrid
Real Madrid79-63UCAM Murcia

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Real Madrid 1638 · UCAM Murcia 1499

	Real Madrid	UCAM Murcia
Our model	79%	21%
Market	84%	16%

Estimated total (ours) 191.7 points · Bet365 line 185.5 · +6.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

Estimated points191.7Real Madrid 102.6 · UCAM Murcia 89.2

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Real Madrid (rating 1638 vs 1499).
Real Madrid is a clear favourite (83% market).
H2H favours Real Madrid: 6-0.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

	Real Madrid	UCAM Murcia
Points F\|A (Last 10)	105.1 / 90.8	91 / 93.6
Points F\|A (Last 5)	113 / 87.8	96.6 / 95.8
Est. result	103	89

Est. total191.7

Line O/U185.5

Diff.6.2

The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.

Odds Bet365

11.13

26.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-11.5)1.87

2 (+11.5)1.87

Line ⓘ

Over 185.51.87

Under 185.51.87

Diff.: 4.75 · Est. total: 190.25

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 08:50

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.13 → 1.13	Bet365 1.13
2	6.00 → 6.00	Bet365 6.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 5.6%

Time*	1	2
08:42 +7’	1.13	6.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Real Madrid 6–0–0 UCAM Murcia

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Date	Home	Score	Away
03/05/26 Spain Liga ACB	Real Madrid	131-123	UCAM Murcia
30/12/25 Spain Liga ACB	UCAM Murcia	80-91	Real Madrid
09/03/25 Spain Liga ACB	Real Madrid	80-75	UCAM Murcia
03/11/24 Spain Liga ACB	UCAM Murcia	64-85	Real Madrid
12/06/24 Spain Liga ACB	UCAM Murcia	73-84	Real Madrid
10/06/24 Spain Liga ACB	Real Madrid	79-63	UCAM Murcia

Standings · Spain Liga ACB

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA
1	Real Madrid	6	6	0	654	526
2	Valencia	6	4	2	594	523
3	Baskonia	6	4	2	567	497
4	Tenerife	6	4	2	527	479
5	Breogan	6	4	2	628	592
6	Zaragoza	6	4	2	552	523
7	Barcelona	6	4	2	582	570
8	Bilbao	6	4	2	557	556
9	Unicaja Malaga	6	3	3	530	507
10	UCAM Murcia	6	3	3	560	563
11	Monbus Obradoiro	6	3	3	533	576
12	Girona	6	3	3	543	594
13	San Pablo Burgos	6	2	4	528	525
14	Joventut	6	2	4	551	549
15	Coruna	6	2	4	540	599
16	BC Andorra	6	1	5	507	579
17	Forca Lleida	6	1	5	557	641
18	Manresa	6	0	6	506	617

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Real Madrid	UCAM Murcia
Forca Lleida	122-86 W	125-98 W
Tenerife	95-107 L	77-90 L
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 1 L	1 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Real Madrid (2 of 2 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Real Madrid

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
01/11	San Pablo Burgos Spain Liga ACB	90-79	W
25/10	Forca Lleida Spain Liga ACB	122-86	W
18/10	Bilbao Spain Liga ACB	119-84	W
11/10	Manresa Spain Liga ACB	120-83	W
04/10	Monbus Obradoiro Spain Liga ACB	114-107	W
27/09	Unicaja Malaga Spain Liga ACB	89-87	W
06/06	Tenerife Spain Liga ACB	95-107	L
04/06	Tenerife Spain Liga ACB	118-83	W
02/06	Tenerife Spain Liga ACB	97-98	L
29/05	Manresa Spain Liga ACB	87-94	L

UCAM Murcia

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
31/10	Forca Lleida Spain Liga ACB	125-98	W
24/10	Coruna Spain Liga ACB	88-81	W
18/10	Valencia Spain Liga ACB	93-116	L
11/10	Tenerife Spain Liga ACB	77-90	L
04/10	Barcelona Spain Liga ACB	100-94	W
27/09	Girona Spain Liga ACB	77-84	L
06/06	Barcelona Spain Liga ACB	76-100	L
04/06	Barcelona Spain Liga ACB	90-87	W
02/06	Barcelona Spain Liga ACB	68-91	L
29/05	Forca Lleida Spain Liga ACB	116-95	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Real Madrid vs UCAM Murcia?

Our model gives 83% to Real Madrid.

How many points are expected in Real Madrid vs UCAM Murcia?

The model estimates 191.7 total points (Real Madrid 102.6 · UCAM Murcia 89.2).