Basketball · Spain Liga ACB · 15/11, 18:00

Prediction: Bilbao vs UCAM Murcia

Team pages: Bilbao · UCAM Murcia

Prediction summary

Estimated points

177.6Total

Bilbao90.6

UCAM Murcia87.1

1X2

60% 40%

Bilbao UCAM Murcia

Recent form · 10 last

Bilbao 5-0-5 (W-D-L)

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UCAM Murcia 4-0-6 (W-D-L)

LWLLWLLWWL

Head-to-head

Bilbao 2–4 UCAM Murcia (6 last)

UCAM Murcia100-81Bilbao
Bilbao96-82UCAM Murcia
Bilbao80-83UCAM Murcia
UCAM Murcia89-83Bilbao
UCAM Murcia96-76Bilbao
Bilbao77-68UCAM Murcia

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Bilbao 1550 · UCAM Murcia 1496

	Bilbao	UCAM Murcia
Our model	70%	30%
Market	58%	42%

Estimated total (ours) 177.6 points · Bet365 line 181.5 · -3.9

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

Estimated points177.6Bilbao 90.6 · UCAM Murcia 87.1

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Bilbao (rating 1550 vs 1496).
H2H favours UCAM Murcia: 4-2.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

	Bilbao	UCAM Murcia
Points F\|A (Last 10)	88.2 / 90.1	86.5 / 93.1
Points F\|A (Last 5)	87.2 / 90.4	90.8 / 95
Est. result	91	87

Est. total177.6

Line O/U181.5

Diff.3.9

The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.

Odds Bet365

11.63

22.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-3)1.87

2 (+3)1.87

Line ⓘ

Over 181.51.87

Under 181.51.87

Diff.: 2.55 · Est. total: 178.95

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 21:00

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.63 → 1.63	Bet365 1.63
2	2.25 → 2.25	Bet365 2.25

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 6%

Time*	1	2
20:38 +22’	1.63	2.25

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Bilbao 2–0–4 UCAM Murcia

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Date	Home	Score	Away
28/03/26 Spain Liga ACB	UCAM Murcia	100-81	Bilbao
10/01/26 Spain Liga ACB	Bilbao	96-82	UCAM Murcia
27/04/25 Spain Liga ACB	Bilbao	80-83	UCAM Murcia
05/10/24 Spain Liga ACB	UCAM Murcia	89-83	Bilbao
03/02/24 Spain Liga ACB	UCAM Murcia	96-76	Bilbao
08/10/23 Spain Liga ACB	Bilbao	77-68	UCAM Murcia

Standings · Spain Liga ACB

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA
1	Real Madrid	7	7	0	744	597
2	Valencia	7	5	2	694	616
3	Baskonia	7	5	2	665	590
4	Tenerife	7	5	2	607	553
5	Zaragoza	7	5	2	648	614
6	Barcelona	7	5	2	681	661
7	Breogan	7	4	3	719	691
8	Bilbao	7	4	3	644	648
9	Girona	7	4	3	635	681
10	Unicaja Malaga	7	3	4	621	603
11	UCAM Murcia	7	3	4	631	653
12	Monbus Obradoiro	7	3	4	632	676
13	Coruna	7	3	4	643	699
14	Joventut	7	2	5	625	629
15	San Pablo Burgos	7	2	5	621	625
16	BC Andorra	7	1	6	607	682
17	Forca Lleida	7	1	6	650	739
18	Manresa	7	1	6	606	716

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Bilbao	UCAM Murcia
Girona	87-92 L	77-84 L
Real Madrid	84-119 L	71-90 L
Coruna	101-104 L	88-81 W
Valencia	71-88 L	93-116 L
Tenerife	87-82 W	77-90 L
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 4 L	1 W 0 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Bilbao (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Bilbao

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
07/11	Girona Spain Liga ACB	87-92	L
01/11	Joventut Spain Liga ACB	81-78	W
25/10	BC Andorra Spain Liga ACB	88-76	W
18/10	Real Madrid Spain Liga ACB	84-119	L
11/10	San Pablo Burgos Spain Liga ACB	96-87	W
04/10	Coruna Spain Liga ACB	101-104	L
26/09	Manresa Spain Liga ACB	107-92	W
05/06	Valencia Spain Liga ACB	71-88	L
03/06	Valencia Spain Liga ACB	80-83	L
29/05	Tenerife Spain Liga ACB	87-82	W

UCAM Murcia

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
08/11	Real Madrid Spain Liga ACB	71-90	L
31/10	Forca Lleida Spain Liga ACB	125-98	W
24/10	Coruna Spain Liga ACB	88-81	W
18/10	Valencia Spain Liga ACB	93-116	L
11/10	Tenerife Spain Liga ACB	77-90	L
04/10	Barcelona Spain Liga ACB	100-94	W
27/09	Girona Spain Liga ACB	77-84	L
06/06	Barcelona Spain Liga ACB	76-100	L
04/06	Barcelona Spain Liga ACB	90-87	W
02/06	Barcelona Spain Liga ACB	68-91	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Bilbao vs UCAM Murcia?

Our model gives 60% to Bilbao.

How many points are expected in Bilbao vs UCAM Murcia?

The model estimates 177.6 total points (Bilbao 90.6 · UCAM Murcia 87.1).