Basketball · Spain Liga ACB · 14/11, 21:00

Prediction: Joventut vs Zaragoza

Team pages: Joventut · Zaragoza

Prediction summary

Estimated points

175.4Total

Joventut91.5

Zaragoza83.8

1X2

71% 29%

Joventut Zaragoza

Recent form · 10 last

Joventut 2-0-8 (W-D-L)

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Zaragoza 6-0-4 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Joventut 5–1 Zaragoza (6 last)

Zaragoza67-79Joventut
Joventut89-86Zaragoza
Joventut89-79Zaragoza
Zaragoza96-95Joventut
Joventut86-76Zaragoza
Joventut95-84Zaragoza

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Joventut 1512 · Zaragoza 1502

	Joventut	Zaragoza
Our model	64%	36%
Market	73%	27%

Estimated total (ours) 175.4 points · Bet365 line 178.5 · -3.1

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

Estimated points175.4Joventut 91.5 · Zaragoza 83.8

Match keys

Joventut is a clear favourite (71% market).
H2H favours Joventut: 5-1.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

	Joventut	Zaragoza
Points F\|A (Last 10)	89.3 / 92.4	91.9 / 90.6
Points F\|A (Last 5)	89.6 / 85.2	97 / 87.4
Est. result	92	84

Est. total175.4

Line O/U178.5

Diff.3.1

The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.

Odds Bet365

11.29

23.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-7.5)1.87

2 (+7.5)1.87

Line ⓘ

Over 178.51.87

Under 178.51.87

Diff.: 3.6 · Est. total: 182.1

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 20:57

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.29 → 1.29	Bet365 1.29
2	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 5.9%

Time*	1	2
20:30 +27’	1.29	3.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Joventut 5–0–1 Zaragoza

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Date	Home	Score	Away
14/02/26 Spain Liga ACB	Zaragoza	67-79	Joventut
12/10/25 Spain Liga ACB	Joventut	89-86	Zaragoza
24/05/25 Spain Liga ACB	Joventut	89-79	Zaragoza
13/10/24 Spain Liga ACB	Zaragoza	96-95	Joventut
07/09/24 Club Friendlies	Joventut	86-76	Zaragoza
13/01/24 Spain Liga ACB	Joventut	95-84	Zaragoza

Standings · Spain Liga ACB

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA
1	Real Madrid	7	7	0	744	597
2	Valencia	7	5	2	694	616
3	Baskonia	7	5	2	665	590
4	Tenerife	7	5	2	607	553
5	Zaragoza	7	5	2	648	614
6	Barcelona	7	5	2	681	661
7	Breogan	7	4	3	719	691
8	Bilbao	7	4	3	644	648
9	Girona	7	4	3	635	681
10	Unicaja Malaga	7	3	4	621	603
11	UCAM Murcia	7	3	4	631	653
12	Monbus Obradoiro	7	3	4	632	676
13	Coruna	7	3	4	643	699
14	Joventut	7	2	5	625	629
15	San Pablo Burgos	7	2	5	621	625
16	BC Andorra	7	1	6	607	682
17	Forca Lleida	7	1	6	650	739
18	Manresa	7	1	6	606	716

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Joventut	Zaragoza
Tenerife	74-80 L	81-80 W
Girona	87-101 L	107-78 W
Barcelona	113-89 W	81-99 L
Breogan	104-110 L	95-94 W
Valencia	75-87 L	82-97 L
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 4 L	3 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Zaragoza (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Joventut

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
08/11	Tenerife Spain Liga ACB	74-80	L
01/11	Bilbao Spain Liga ACB	78-81	L
25/10	Girona Spain Liga ACB	87-101	L
18/10	Barcelona Spain Liga ACB	113-89	W
14/10	BC Andorra Spain Liga ACB	96-75	W
11/10	Baskonia Spain Liga ACB	73-93	L
27/09	Breogan Spain Liga ACB	104-110	L
14/06	Valencia Spain Liga ACB	75-87	L
12/06	Valencia Spain Liga ACB	76-90	L
10/06	Valencia Spain Liga ACB	117-118	L

Zaragoza

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
08/11	Unicaja Malaga Spain Liga ACB	96-91	W
31/10	Girona Spain Liga ACB	107-78	W
24/10	Barcelona Spain Liga ACB	81-99	L
18/10	Forca Lleida Spain Liga ACB	109-98	W
10/10	Coruna Spain Liga ACB	92-71	W
04/10	Valencia Spain Liga ACB	82-97	L
27/09	Tenerife Spain Liga ACB	81-80	W
29/05	Breogan Spain Liga ACB	95-94	W
26/05	Valencia Spain Liga ACB	86-98	L
24/05	UCAM Murcia Spain Liga ACB	90-100	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Joventut vs Zaragoza?

Our model gives 71% to Joventut.

How many points are expected in Joventut vs Zaragoza?

The model estimates 175.4 total points (Joventut 91.5 · Zaragoza 83.8).