Basketball · Spain Liga ACB · 15/11, 19:00

Prediction: Baskonia vs Real Madrid

Team pages: Baskonia · Real Madrid

Prediction summary

Estimated points

189.1Total

Baskonia93

Real Madrid96.2

1X2

41% 59%

Baskonia Real Madrid

Recent form · 10 last

Baskonia 6-0-4 (W-D-L)

WLLWWWLLWW

Real Madrid 8-0-2 (W-D-L)

LWLWWWWWWW

Head-to-head

Baskonia 3–3 Real Madrid (6 last)

Baskonia86-104Real Madrid
Real Madrid121-80Baskonia
Real Madrid83-88Baskonia
Baskonia98-96Real Madrid
Real Madrid89-100Baskonia
Real Madrid94-87Baskonia

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Baskonia 1482 · Real Madrid 1607

	Baskonia	Real Madrid
Our model	45%	55%
Market	40%	60%

Estimated total (ours) 189.1 points · Bet365 line 183.5 · +5.6

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

Estimated points189.1Baskonia 93 · Real Madrid 96.2

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Real Madrid (rating 1482 vs 1607).

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

	Baskonia	Real Madrid
Points F\|A (Last 10)	90.1 / 83.9	105.4 / 88.5
Points F\|A (Last 5)	89.8 / 83	108.2 / 80.6
Est. result	93	96

Est. total189.1

Line O/U183.5

Diff.5.6

The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.

Odds Bet365

12.35

21.59

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+3.5)1.87

2 (-3.5)1.87

Line ⓘ

Over 183.51.87

Under 183.51.87

Diff.: 0.45 · Est. total: 183.95

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 22:49

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.40 → 2.35▼	Bet365 2.35
2	1.55 → 1.59▲	Bet365 1.59

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 5.5%

Time*	1	2
20:30 +31’	2.40	1.55
22:39 +10’	2.35▼	1.59▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Baskonia 3–0–3 Real Madrid

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Date	Home	Score	Away
27/10/26 Euroleague	Baskonia	86-104	Real Madrid
05/09/26 Club Friendlies	Real Madrid	121-80	Baskonia
27/05/26 Spain Liga ACB	Real Madrid	83-88	Baskonia
03/04/26 Euroleague	Baskonia	98-96	Real Madrid
22/02/26 Spain Copa del Rey	Real Madrid	89-100	Baskonia
11/12/25 Euroleague	Real Madrid	94-87	Baskonia

Standings · Spain Liga ACB

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA
1	Real Madrid	7	7	0	744	597
2	Valencia	7	5	2	694	616
3	Baskonia	7	5	2	665	590
4	Tenerife	7	5	2	607	553
5	Zaragoza	7	5	2	648	614
6	Barcelona	7	5	2	681	661
7	Breogan	7	4	3	719	691
8	Bilbao	7	4	3	644	648
9	Girona	7	4	3	635	681
10	Unicaja Malaga	7	3	4	621	603
11	UCAM Murcia	7	3	4	631	653
12	Monbus Obradoiro	7	3	4	632	676
13	Coruna	7	3	4	643	699
14	Joventut	7	2	5	625	629
15	San Pablo Burgos	7	2	5	621	625
16	BC Andorra	7	1	6	607	682
17	Forca Lleida	7	1	6	650	739
18	Manresa	7	1	6	606	716

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Baskonia	Real Madrid
Forca Lleida	98-93 W	122-86 W
Manresa	106-83 W	120-83 W
Tenerife	77-82 L	95-107 L
San Pablo Burgos	98-97 W	90-79 W
Record vs common	3 W 0 D 1 L	3 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Real Madrid (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Baskonia

WLLWWWLLWW

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
07/11	Forca Lleida Spain Liga ACB	98-93	W
01/11	Manresa Spain Liga ACB	106-83	W
25/10	Valencia Spain Liga ACB	75-84	L
18/10	Tenerife Spain Liga ACB	77-82	L
11/10	Joventut Spain Liga ACB	93-73	W
04/10	Girona Spain Liga ACB	118-78	W
27/09	San Pablo Burgos Spain Liga ACB	98-97	W
07/06	Joventut Spain Liga ACB	88-96	L
05/06	Joventut Spain Liga ACB	63-82	L
03/06	Joventut Spain Liga ACB	85-71	W

Real Madrid

LWLWWWWWWW

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
08/11	UCAM Murcia Spain Liga ACB	90-71	W
01/11	San Pablo Burgos Spain Liga ACB	90-79	W
25/10	Forca Lleida Spain Liga ACB	122-86	W
18/10	Bilbao Spain Liga ACB	119-84	W
11/10	Manresa Spain Liga ACB	120-83	W
04/10	Monbus Obradoiro Spain Liga ACB	114-107	W
27/09	Unicaja Malaga Spain Liga ACB	89-87	W
06/06	Tenerife Spain Liga ACB	95-107	L
04/06	Tenerife Spain Liga ACB	118-83	W
02/06	Tenerife Spain Liga ACB	97-98	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Baskonia vs Real Madrid?

Our model gives 59% to Real Madrid.

How many points are expected in Baskonia vs Real Madrid?

The model estimates 189.1 total points (Baskonia 93 · Real Madrid 96.2).