Basketball · Spain Liga ACB · 07/11, 19:30

Prediction: Girona vs Bilbao

Team pages: Girona · Bilbao

Prediction summary

Estimated points

179.5Total

Girona90.5

Bilbao89.1

1X2 Even — no clear favourite

54% 46%

Girona Bilbao

The bar shows the win probability, but the expected points are almost even: the model does not lean clearly on either side.

Recent form · 10 last

Girona 4-0-6 (W-D-L)

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Bilbao 6-0-4 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Girona 2–4 Bilbao (6 last)

Bilbao86-80Girona
Girona89-93Bilbao
Bilbao96-83Girona
Girona100-94Bilbao
Girona81-68Bilbao
Bilbao80-74Girona

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Girona 1501 · Bilbao 1553

	Girona	Bilbao
Our model	55%	45%
Market	53%	47%

Estimated total (ours) 179.5 points · Bet365 line 181.5 · -2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

Estimated points179.5Girona 90.5 · Bilbao 89.1

Match keys

H2H favours Bilbao: 4-2.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

	Girona	Bilbao
Points F\|A (Last 10)	85.5 / 93.1	88.1 / 88.9
Points F\|A (Last 5)	91.8 / 103.4	90 / 92.8
Est. result	91	89

Est. total179.5

Line O/U181.5

Diff.2

The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.

Odds Bet365

11.77

22.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.5)1.87

2 (+1.5)1.87

Line ⓘ

Over 181.51.87

Under 181.51.87

Diff.: 3.7 · Est. total: 177.8

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 09:49

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.77 → 1.77	Bet365 1.77
2	2.00 → 2.00	Bet365 2.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 6.5%

Time*	1	2
09:47 +1’	1.77	2.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Girona 2–0–4 Bilbao

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Date	Home	Score	Away
24/05/26 Spain Liga ACB	Bilbao	86-80	Girona
04/01/26 Spain Liga ACB	Girona	89-93	Bilbao
02/03/25 Spain Liga ACB	Bilbao	96-83	Girona
10/11/24 Spain Liga ACB	Girona	100-94	Bilbao
27/04/24 Spain Liga ACB	Girona	81-68	Bilbao
22/12/23 Spain Liga ACB	Bilbao	80-74	Girona

Standings · Spain Liga ACB

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA
1	Real Madrid	6	6	0	654	526
2	Valencia	6	4	2	594	523
3	Baskonia	6	4	2	567	497
4	Tenerife	6	4	2	527	479
5	Breogan	6	4	2	628	592
6	Zaragoza	6	4	2	552	523
7	Barcelona	6	4	2	582	570
8	Bilbao	6	4	2	557	556
9	Unicaja Malaga	6	3	3	530	507
10	UCAM Murcia	6	3	3	560	563
11	Monbus Obradoiro	6	3	3	533	576
12	Girona	6	3	3	543	594
13	San Pablo Burgos	6	2	4	528	525
14	Joventut	6	2	4	551	549
15	Coruna	6	2	4	540	599
16	BC Andorra	6	1	5	507	579
17	Forca Lleida	6	1	5	557	641
18	Manresa	6	0	6	506	617

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Girona	Bilbao
Joventut	101-87 W	81-78 W
Coruna	110-90 W	101-104 L
Manresa	74-79 L	107-92 W
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 1 L	2 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Girona (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Girona

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
31/10	Zaragoza Spain Liga ACB	78-107	L
25/10	Joventut Spain Liga ACB	101-87	W
18/10	Coruna Spain Liga ACB	110-90	W
10/10	Breogan Spain Liga ACB	92-115	L
04/10	Baskonia Spain Liga ACB	78-118	L
27/09	UCAM Murcia Spain Liga ACB	84-77	W
29/05	Joventut Spain Liga ACB	82-77	W
24/05	Bilbao Spain Liga ACB	80-86	L
16/05	Breogan Spain Liga ACB	76-95	L
12/05	Manresa Spain Liga ACB	74-79	L

Bilbao

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
01/11	Joventut Spain Liga ACB	81-78	W
25/10	BC Andorra Spain Liga ACB	88-76	W
18/10	Real Madrid Spain Liga ACB	84-119	L
11/10	San Pablo Burgos Spain Liga ACB	96-87	W
04/10	Coruna Spain Liga ACB	101-104	L
26/09	Manresa Spain Liga ACB	107-92	W
05/06	Valencia Spain Liga ACB	71-88	L
03/06	Valencia Spain Liga ACB	80-83	L
29/05	Tenerife Spain Liga ACB	87-82	W
24/05	Girona Spain Liga ACB	86-80	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Girona vs Bilbao?

Our model does not see a clear favourite: the match is very even (Girona 54% · Bilbao 46%).

How many points are expected in Girona vs Bilbao?

The model estimates 179.5 total points (Girona 90.5 · Bilbao 89.1).