Basketball · Lithuania LKL · 20/09, 15:50

Prediction: Neptunas vs Zalgiris

Team pages: Zalgiris

Prediction summary

Estimated points

174Total

Neptunas84.5

Zalgiris89.5

1X2

36% 64%

Neptunas Zalgiris

Recent form · 10 last

Neptunas 6-0-4 (W-D-L)

WWLLWLWLWW

Zalgiris 10-0-0 (W-D-L)

WWWWWWWWWW

Head-to-head

Neptunas 0–6 Zalgiris (6 last)

Neptunas90-93Zalgiris
Zalgiris119-81Neptunas
Zalgiris87-76Neptunas
Zalgiris112-77Neptunas
Neptunas71-84Zalgiris
Neptunas70-98Zalgiris

Model analysis

Estimated points174Neptunas 84.5 · Zalgiris 89.5

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Zalgiris (rating 1488 vs 1679).
H2H favours Zalgiris: 6-0.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

	Neptunas	Zalgiris
Points F\|A (Last 10)	85.3 / 81.4	97.3 / 77.8
Points F\|A (Last 5)	80.2 / 80.2	100.6 / 78.2
Est. result	85	90

Est. total174

Line O/U171.5

Diff.2.5

The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.

Odds Bet365

Line ⓘ

Over 171.51.84

Under 171.51.90

Diff.: 0.6 · Est. total: 170.9

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 19:53

	Pinnacle	Best now
1	5.69 → 5.67▼	Pinn 5.67
2	1.09 → 1.09	Pinn 1.09

See the full journey (2)

Pinnacle margin 9.5%

Time*	1	2
16:10 +45’	5.69	1.09
19:43 +10’	5.67▼	1.09

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Neptunas 0–0–6 Zalgiris

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
13/05/26 Lithuania LKL	Neptunas	90-93	Zalgiris
21/02/26 Lithuania Cup	Zalgiris	119-81	Neptunas
08/02/26 Lithuania LKL	Zalgiris	87-76	Neptunas
04/01/26 Lithuania LKL	Zalgiris	112-77	Neptunas
27/09/25 Lithuania LKL	Neptunas	71-84	Zalgiris
26/05/25 Lithuania LKL	Neptunas	70-98	Zalgiris

Standings · Lithuania LKL

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA
1	Zalgiris	1	1	0	98	77
2	Gargzdu Gargzdai SC	1	0	1	77	98
3	Jonava	0	0	0	0	0
3	Juventus	0	0	0	0	0
3	Lietkabelis	0	0	0	0	0
3	Neptunas	0	0	0	0	0
3	Nevezis	0	0	0	0	0
3	Rytas Vilnius	0	0	0	0	0
3	Siauliai	0	0	0	0	0
3	Taurages Taurage	0	0	0	0	0

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Neptunas	Zalgiris
Lietkabelis	91-82 W	103-93 W
Juventus	90-103 L	95-77 W
Gargzdu Gargzdai SC	84-74 W	98-77 W
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 1 L	3 W 0 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Zalgiris (3 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Neptunas

WWLLWLWLWW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
13/06	Lietkabelis Lithuania LKL	91-82	W
11/06	Lietkabelis Lithuania LKL	66-63	W
08/06	Lietkabelis Lithuania LKL	68-80	L
06/06	Lietkabelis Lithuania LKL	86-73	W
03/06	Juventus Lithuania LKL	90-103	L
01/06	Juventus Lithuania LKL	102-84	W
29/05	Juventus Lithuania LKL	83-86	L
27/05	Juventus Lithuania LKL	83-96	L
23/05	Gargzdu Gargzdai SC Lithuania LKL	84-74	W
21/05	Gargzdu Gargzdai SC Lithuania LKL	100-73	W

Zalgiris

WWWWWWWWWW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
17/09	Gargzdu Gargzdai SC Lithuania LKL	98-77	W
12/06	Juventus Lithuania LKL	95-77	W
09/06	Juventus Lithuania LKL	100-69	W
07/06	Juventus Lithuania LKL	107-75	W
31/05	Lietkabelis Lithuania LKL	103-93	W
28/05	Lietkabelis Lithuania LKL	95-75	W
26/05	Lietkabelis Lithuania LKL	85-75	W
22/05	Jonava Lithuania LKL	90-75	W
20/05	Jonava Lithuania LKL	102-82	W
17/05	Nevezis Lithuania LKL	98-80	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Neptunas vs Zalgiris?

Our model gives 64% to Zalgiris.

How many points are expected in Neptunas vs Zalgiris?

The model estimates 174 total points (Neptunas 84.5 · Zalgiris 89.5).