Basketball · Italy Lega 1 · 25/10, 12:00

Prediction: Derthona Basket vs Napoli

Team pages: Derthona Basket · Napoli

Prediction summary

Estimated points

173.1Total

Derthona Basket86.7

Napoli86.4

1X2 Even — no clear favourite

51% 49%

Derthona Basket Napoli

The bar shows the win probability, but the expected points are almost even: the model does not lean clearly on either side.

Recent form · 10 last

Derthona Basket 4-0-6 (W-D-L)

WLLWWLWLLL

Napoli 6-0-4 (W-D-L)

LWLWLWWWWL

Head-to-head

Derthona Basket 3–3 Napoli (6 last)

Napoli76-82Derthona Basket
Derthona Basket87-76Napoli
Derthona Basket82-89Napoli
Napoli92-83Derthona Basket
Derthona Basket97-72Napoli
Napoli81-76Derthona Basket

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Derthona Basket 1452 · Napoli 1546

	Derthona Basket	Napoli
Our model	49%	51%
Market	51%	49%

Estimated total (ours) 173.1 points · Bet365 line 177.5 · -4.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

Estimated points173.1Derthona Basket 86.7 · Napoli 86.4

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

	Derthona Basket	Napoli
Points F\|A (Last 10)	82.1 / 86.5	90.6 / 87.8
Points F\|A (Last 5)	83 / 94.4	94.4 / 83.4
Est. result	87	86

Est. total173.1

Line O/U177.5

Diff.4.4

The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.

Odds Bet365

11.83

21.91

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.5)1.91

2 (+1.5)1.83

Line ⓘ

Over 177.51.87

Under 177.51.87

Diff.: 4 · Est. total: 173.5

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:49

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.83 → 1.83	Bet365 1.83
2	1.91 → 1.91	Bet365 1.91

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 6.9%

Time*	1	2
16:45 +4’	1.83	1.91

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Derthona Basket 3–0–3 Napoli

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
24/01/26 Italy Lega 1	Napoli	76-82	Derthona Basket
02/11/25 Italy Lega 1	Derthona Basket	87-76	Napoli
04/05/25 Italy Lega 1	Derthona Basket	82-89	Napoli
04/01/25 Italy Lega 1	Napoli	92-83	Derthona Basket
10/03/24 Italy Lega 1	Derthona Basket	97-72	Napoli
30/12/23 Italy Lega 1	Napoli	81-76	Derthona Basket

Standings · Italy Lega 1

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Virtus Bologna	4	4	0	389	327	8
2	Milano	4	3	1	359	313	6
3	Verona	4	3	1	351	336	6
4	Treviso	4	3	1	381	376	6
5	Venezia	4	3	1	362	346	6
6	Trento	4	3	1	334	322	6
7	Napoli	4	3	1	374	346	6
8	Udine	4	2	2	324	323	4
9	Maxima Roma	4	2	2	349	362	4
10	Varese	4	2	2	324	338	4
11	Roma Basketball	4	1	3	395	379	2
12	Reggio Emilia	4	1	3	345	362	2
13	Trieste	4	1	3	337	327	2
14	Derthona Basket	4	1	3	332	383	2
15	Cantu	4	0	4	309	361	0
16	Scafati	4	0	4	305	369	0

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Derthona Basket	Napoli
Maxima Roma	75-89 L	94-75 W
Reggio Emilia	86-93 L	99-93 W
Record vs common	0 W 0 D 2 L	2 W 0 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Napoli (2 of 2 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Derthona Basket

WLLWWLWLLL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
18/10	Maxima Roma Italy Lega 1	75-89	L
11/10	Reggio Emilia Italy Lega 1	86-93	L
04/10	Roma Basketball Italy Lega 1	70-108	L
27/09	Verona Italy Lega 1	101-93	W
26/05	Venezia Italy Lega 1	83-89	L
24/05	Venezia Italy Lega 1	89-71	W
22/05	Venezia Italy Lega 1	82-71	W
19/05	Venezia Italy Lega 1	75-87	L
17/05	Venezia Italy Lega 1	82-89	L
10/05	Venezia Italy Lega 1	78-75	W

Napoli

LWLWLWWWWL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
18/10	Milano Italy Lega 1	82-98	L
11/10	Cantu Italy Lega 1	99-80	W
03/10	Reggio Emilia Italy Lega 1	99-93	W
27/09	Maxima Roma Italy Lega 1	94-75	W
10/05	Udine Italy Lega 1	98-71	W
03/05	Reggio Emilia Italy Lega 1	80-91	L
25/04	Trento Italy Lega 1	84-74	W
19/04	Milano Italy Lega 1	97-125	L
12/04	Treviso Italy Lega 1	88-71	W
04/04	Leonessa Brescia Italy Lega 1	85-100	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Derthona Basket vs Napoli?

Our model does not see a clear favourite: the match is very even (Derthona Basket 51% · Napoli 49%).

How many points are expected in Derthona Basket vs Napoli?

The model estimates 173.1 total points (Derthona Basket 86.7 · Napoli 86.4).