Basketball · Italy Lega 1 · 01/11, 12:00
Prediction: Napoli vs Venezia
Prediction summary
Estimated points
177.4Total
Napoli91.2
Venezia86.2
1X2
Napoli
Venezia
Recent form · 10 last
Napoli
7-0-3 (W-D-L)
Venezia
5-0-5 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Napoli
1–5
Venezia
(6 last)
- Napoli64-79Venezia
- Venezia106-96Napoli
- Venezia91-68Napoli
- Napoli80-81Venezia
- Napoli90-97Venezia
- Venezia81-89Napoli
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Napoli 1569 · Venezia 1514
| Napoli | Venezia | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 70% | 30% |
| Market | 63% | 37% |
Estimated total (ours)
177.4 points · Bet365 line 176.5 · +0.9
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
Estimated points177.4Napoli 91.2 · Venezia 86.2
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Napoli (rating 1569 vs 1514).
- H2H favours Venezia: 5-1.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
| Napoli | Venezia | |
|---|---|---|
| Points F|A (Last 10) | 91.3 / 86.8 | 88.1 / 90.1 |
| Points F|A (Last 5) | 93.2 / 87.2 | 90.2 / 88.6 |
| Est. result | 91 | 86 |
Est. total177.4
Line O/U176.5
Diff.0.9
The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.
Head-to-head (H2H) · Napoli 1–0–5 Venezia
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 08/02/26 Italy Lega 1 | Napoli | 64-79 | Venezia |
| 21/12/25 Italy Lega 1 | Venezia | 106-96 | Napoli |
| 09/02/25 Italy Lega 1 | Venezia | 91-68 | Napoli |
| 03/11/24 Italy Lega 1 | Napoli | 80-81 | Venezia |
| 30/03/24 Italy Lega 1 | Napoli | 90-97 | Venezia |
| 07/01/24 Italy Lega 1 | Venezia | 81-89 | Napoli |
Standings · Italy Lega 1
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| # | Team | P | W | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Virtus Bologna | 5 | 5 | 0 | 487 | 421 | 10 |
| 2 | Napoli | 5 | 4 | 1 | 466 | 436 | 8 |
| 3 | Treviso | 5 | 4 | 1 | 478 | 465 | 8 |
| 4 | Verona | 5 | 3 | 2 | 450 | 444 | 6 |
| 5 | Trento | 5 | 3 | 2 | 415 | 409 | 6 |
| 6 | Venezia | 5 | 3 | 2 | 451 | 443 | 6 |
| 7 | Maxima Roma | 5 | 3 | 2 | 430 | 437 | 6 |
| 8 | Varese | 5 | 3 | 2 | 434 | 441 | 6 |
| 9 | Milano | 5 | 3 | 2 | 453 | 411 | 6 |
| 10 | Trieste | 5 | 2 | 3 | 445 | 426 | 4 |
| 11 | Reggio Emilia | 5 | 2 | 3 | 426 | 422 | 4 |
| 12 | Udine | 5 | 2 | 3 | 399 | 404 | 4 |
| 13 | Roma Basketball | 5 | 1 | 4 | 498 | 489 | 2 |
| 14 | Scafati | 5 | 1 | 4 | 392 | 450 | 2 |
| 15 | Derthona Basket | 5 | 1 | 4 | 422 | 475 | 2 |
| 16 | Cantu | 5 | 0 | 5 | 369 | 442 | 0 |
Common opponents 3 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Napoli | Venezia |
|---|---|---|
| Milano | 82-98 L | 72-86 L |
| Cantu | 99-80 W | 85-73 W |
| Treviso | 88-71 W | 89-97 L |
| Record vs common | 2 W 0 D 1 L | 1 W 0 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: Napoli (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Napoli
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| Date | Opponent | FT | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25/10 | Derthona Basket Italy Lega 1 |
92-90 | W |
| 18/10 | Milano Italy Lega 1 |
82-98 | L |
| 11/10 | Cantu Italy Lega 1 |
99-80 | W |
| 03/10 | Reggio Emilia Italy Lega 1 |
99-93 | W |
| 27/09 | Maxima Roma Italy Lega 1 |
94-75 | W |
| 10/05 | Udine Italy Lega 1 |
98-71 | W |
| 03/05 | Reggio Emilia Italy Lega 1 |
80-91 | L |
| 25/04 | Trento Italy Lega 1 |
84-74 | W |
| 19/04 | Milano Italy Lega 1 |
97-125 | L |
| 12/04 | Treviso Italy Lega 1 |
88-71 | W |
Venezia
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| Date | Opponent | FT | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25/10 | Treviso Italy Lega 1 |
89-97 | L |
| 17/10 | Roma Basketball Italy Lega 1 |
104-98 | W |
| 11/10 | Virtus Bologna Italy Lega 1 |
86-93 | L |
| 04/10 | Trieste Italy Lega 1 |
87-82 | W |
| 26/09 | Cantu Italy Lega 1 |
85-73 | W |
| 18/06 | Milano Italy Lega 1 |
72-86 | L |
| 16/06 | Milano Italy Lega 1 |
109-97 | W |
| 13/06 | Milano Italy Lega 1 |
79-92 | L |
| 11/06 | Milano Italy Lega 1 |
80-100 | L |
| 06/06 | Virtus Bologna Italy Lega 1 |
90-83 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Napoli vs Venezia?
Our model gives 64% to Napoli.
How many points are expected in Napoli vs Venezia?
The model estimates 177.4 total points (Napoli 91.2 · Venezia 86.2).