Basketball · Italy Lega 1 · 02/11, 20:00
Prediction: Virtus Bologna vs Trieste
Team pages: Virtus Bologna · Trieste
Prediction summary
Estimated points
174.9Total
Virtus Bologna93.3
Trieste81.5
1X2
Virtus Bologna
Trieste
Recent form · 10 last
Virtus Bologna
7-0-3 (W-D-L)
Trieste
4-0-6 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Virtus Bologna
3–3
Trieste
(6 last)
- Virtus Bologna95-81Trieste
- Trieste66-74Virtus Bologna
- Trieste85-78Virtus Bologna
- Virtus Bologna70-78Trieste
- Trieste80-78Virtus Bologna
- Virtus Bologna85-80Trieste
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Virtus Bologna 1629 · Trieste 1472
| Virtus Bologna | Trieste | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 81% | 19% |
| Market | 80% | 20% |
Estimated total (ours)
174.9 points · Bet365 line 179.5 · -4.6
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
Estimated points174.9Virtus Bologna 93.3 · Trieste 81.5
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Virtus Bologna (rating 1629 vs 1472).
- Virtus Bologna is a clear favourite (80% market).
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
| Virtus Bologna | Trieste | |
|---|---|---|
| Points F|A (Last 10) | 94.2 / 86.5 | 85.7 / 85.7 |
| Points F|A (Last 5) | 97.4 / 84.2 | 89 / 85.2 |
| Est. result | 93 | 82 |
Est. total174.9
Line O/U179.5
Diff.4.6
The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.
Head-to-head (H2H) · Virtus Bologna 3–0–3 Trieste
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 26/04/26 Italy Lega 1 | Virtus Bologna | 95-81 | Trieste |
| 29/12/25 Italy Lega 1 | Trieste | 66-74 | Virtus Bologna |
| 22/03/25 Italy Lega 1 | Trieste | 85-78 | Virtus Bologna |
| 15/12/24 Italy Lega 1 | Virtus Bologna | 70-78 | Trieste |
| 02/04/23 Italy Lega 1 | Trieste | 80-78 | Virtus Bologna |
| 09/10/22 Italy Lega 1 | Virtus Bologna | 85-80 | Trieste |
Standings · Italy Lega 1
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| # | Team | P | W | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Virtus Bologna | 5 | 5 | 0 | 487 | 421 | 10 |
| 2 | Napoli | 5 | 4 | 1 | 466 | 436 | 8 |
| 3 | Treviso | 5 | 4 | 1 | 478 | 465 | 8 |
| 4 | Verona | 5 | 3 | 2 | 450 | 444 | 6 |
| 5 | Trento | 5 | 3 | 2 | 415 | 409 | 6 |
| 6 | Venezia | 5 | 3 | 2 | 451 | 443 | 6 |
| 7 | Maxima Roma | 5 | 3 | 2 | 430 | 437 | 6 |
| 8 | Varese | 5 | 3 | 2 | 434 | 441 | 6 |
| 9 | Milano | 5 | 3 | 2 | 453 | 411 | 6 |
| 10 | Trieste | 5 | 2 | 3 | 445 | 426 | 4 |
| 11 | Reggio Emilia | 5 | 2 | 3 | 426 | 422 | 4 |
| 12 | Udine | 5 | 2 | 3 | 399 | 404 | 4 |
| 13 | Roma Basketball | 5 | 1 | 4 | 498 | 489 | 2 |
| 14 | Scafati | 5 | 1 | 4 | 392 | 450 | 2 |
| 15 | Derthona Basket | 5 | 1 | 4 | 422 | 475 | 2 |
| 16 | Cantu | 5 | 0 | 5 | 369 | 442 | 0 |
Common opponents 3 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Virtus Bologna | Trieste |
|---|---|---|
| Milano | 98-94 W | 79-83 L |
| Venezia | 93-86 W | 82-87 L |
| Varese | 90-69 W | 84-85 L |
| Record vs common | 3 W 0 D 0 L | 0 W 0 D 3 L |
Better against common opponents: Virtus Bologna (3 of 3 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Virtus Bologna
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| Date | Opponent | FT | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25/10 | Milano Italy Lega 1 |
98-94 | W |
| 18/10 | Scafati Italy Lega 1 |
108-83 | W |
| 11/10 | Venezia Italy Lega 1 |
93-86 | W |
| 04/10 | Maxima Roma Italy Lega 1 |
98-89 | W |
| 27/09 | Varese Italy Lega 1 |
90-69 | W |
| 06/06 | Venezia Italy Lega 1 |
83-90 | L |
| 04/06 | Venezia Italy Lega 1 |
85-89 | L |
| 01/06 | Venezia Italy Lega 1 |
98-79 | W |
| 30/05 | Venezia Italy Lega 1 |
83-91 | L |
| 26/05 | Trento Italy Lega 1 |
106-95 | W |
Trieste
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| Date | Opponent | FT | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25/10 | Verona Italy Lega 1 |
108-99 | W |
| 18/10 | Cantu Italy Lega 1 |
92-72 | W |
| 10/10 | Varese Italy Lega 1 |
84-85 | L |
| 04/10 | Venezia Italy Lega 1 |
82-87 | L |
| 27/09 | Milano Italy Lega 1 |
79-83 | L |
| 25/05 | Leonessa Brescia Italy Lega 1 |
75-90 | L |
| 23/05 | Leonessa Brescia Italy Lega 1 |
83-77 | W |
| 21/05 | Leonessa Brescia Italy Lega 1 |
80-84 | L |
| 18/05 | Leonessa Brescia Italy Lega 1 |
82-90 | L |
| 16/05 | Leonessa Brescia Italy Lega 1 |
92-90 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Virtus Bologna vs Trieste?
Our model gives 80% to Virtus Bologna.
How many points are expected in Virtus Bologna vs Trieste?
The model estimates 174.9 total points (Virtus Bologna 93.3 · Trieste 81.5).