Basketball · Japan B League Premier · 11/10, 07:05

Prediction: Altiri Chiba vs Toyama Grouses

Team pages: Altiri Chiba · Toyama Grouses

Prediction summary

Estimated points

171.8Total

Altiri Chiba87

Toyama Grouses84.8

1X2 Even — no clear favourite

56% 44%

Altiri Chiba Toyama Grouses

The bar shows the win probability, but the expected points are almost even: the model does not lean clearly on either side.

Recent form · 10 last

Altiri Chiba 3-0-7 (W-D-L)

LWLLLLWLLW

Toyama Grouses 7-0-3 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Altiri Chiba 4–2 Toyama Grouses (6 last)

Altiri Chiba86-84Toyama Grouses
Altiri Chiba95-99Toyama Grouses
Altiri Chiba92-71Toyama Grouses
Altiri Chiba92-98Toyama Grouses
Altiri Chiba101-95Toyama Grouses
Altiri Chiba97-72Toyama Grouses

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Altiri Chiba 1461 · Toyama Grouses 1534

	Altiri Chiba	Toyama Grouses
Our model	52%	48%
Market	57%	43%

Estimated total (ours) 171.8 points · Bet365 line 168.5 · +3.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

Estimated points171.8Altiri Chiba 87 · Toyama Grouses 84.8

Match keys

H2H favours Altiri Chiba: 4-2.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

	Altiri Chiba	Toyama Grouses
Points F\|A (Last 10)	80.1 / 86.8	88 / 85
Points F\|A (Last 5)	80.6 / 86.8	81.6 / 87.2
Est. result	87	85

Est. total171.8

Line O/U168.5

Diff.3.3

The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.

Odds Bet365

11.63

22.15

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-2.5)1.83

2 (+2.5)1.83

Line ⓘ

Over 168.51.83

Under 168.51.83

Diff.: 1.45 · Est. total: 169.95

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 18:00

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.48 → 1.63▲	Pinn 1.79 ★
2	2.55 → 2.15▼	Bet365 2.15

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 8.1% Pinnacle margin 5.7%

Time*	1	2
16:09 +3’	1.48	2.55
17:58 +2’	1.63▲	2.15▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	2
14:59 +12’	1.59	2.32
15:55 +17’	1.79▲	2.01▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Altiri Chiba 4–0–2 Toyama Grouses

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Date	Home	Score	Away
19/10/25 Japan B League Premier	Altiri Chiba	86-84	Toyama Grouses
18/10/25 Japan B League Premier	Altiri Chiba	95-99	Toyama Grouses
18/05/25 Japan B League One	Altiri Chiba	92-71	Toyama Grouses
17/05/25 Japan B League One	Altiri Chiba	92-98	Toyama Grouses
30/03/25 Japan B League One	Altiri Chiba	101-95	Toyama Grouses
29/03/25 Japan B League One	Altiri Chiba	97-72	Toyama Grouses

Standings · Japan B League Premier · Eastern Conference

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA
1	Gunma Crane Thunders	6	5	1	460	416
2	Tokyo Alvark	5	4	1	482	434
3	Tokyo Sun Rockers	6	4	2	545	496
4	Utsunomiya Brex	5	3	2	415	385
5	Levanga Hokkaido	6	3	3	577	573
6	Yokohama B-Corsairs	6	3	3	460	457
7	Toyama Grouses	6	3	3	507	521
8	Sendai 89ers	6	3	3	534	502
9	Kanagawa Brave Thunders	5	2	3	400	437
10	Altiri Chiba	6	2	4	477	510
11	Chiba Jets	6	2	4	573	618
12	Akita Northern Happinets	5	1	4	350	417
13	Ibaraki Robots	6	0	6	470	509

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Altiri Chiba

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
09/10	Osaka Evessa Japan B League Premier	97-90	W
07/10	Sendai 89ers Japan B League Premier	74-81	L
04/10	Kanagawa Brave Thunders Japan B League Premier	74-82	L
03/10	Kanagawa Brave Thunders Japan B League Premier	99-90	W
26/09	Gunma Crane Thunders Japan B League Premier	59-91	L
24/09	Gunma Crane Thunders Japan B League 1	74-76	L
03/05	Chiba Jets Japan B League Premier	87-96	L
02/05	Chiba Jets Japan B League Premier	81-98	L
26/04	Tokyo Sun Rockers Japan B League Premier	87-85	W
25/04	Tokyo Sun Rockers Japan B League Premier	69-79	L

Toyama Grouses

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
09/10	Tokyo Sun Rockers Japan B League Premier	96-90	W
07/10	Kyoto Hannaryz Japan B League Premier	77-81	L
04/10	Utsunomiya Brex Japan B League Premier	77-99	L
03/10	Utsunomiya Brex Japan B League Premier	77-67	W
27/09	Shinshu Brave Warriors Japan B League Premier	81-99	L
26/09	Shinshu Brave Warriors Japan B League 1	99-85	W
03/05	Hiroshima Dragonflies Japan B League Premier	101-91	W
02/05	Hiroshima Dragonflies Japan B League Premier	96-89	W
26/04	Akita Northern Happinets Japan B League Premier	94-77	W
25/04	Akita Northern Happinets Japan B League Premier	82-72	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Altiri Chiba vs Toyama Grouses?

Our model does not see a clear favourite: the match is very even (Altiri Chiba 56% · Toyama Grouses 44%).

How many points are expected in Altiri Chiba vs Toyama Grouses?

The model estimates 171.8 total points (Altiri Chiba 87 · Toyama Grouses 84.8).