Basketball · Japan B League Premier · 19/10, 12:05
Prediction: Nagasaki Velca vs Altiri Chiba
Team pages: Nagasaki Velca · Altiri Chiba
Prediction summary
Estimated points
158.7Total
Nagasaki Velca82.8
Altiri Chiba75.9
1X2
Nagasaki Velca
Altiri Chiba
Recent form · 10 last
Nagasaki Velca
5-0-5 (W-D-L)
Altiri Chiba
2-0-8 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Nagasaki Velca
3–3
Altiri Chiba
(6 last)
- Altiri Chiba68-102Nagasaki Velca
- Altiri Chiba97-94Nagasaki Velca
- Altiri Chiba86-91Nagasaki Velca
- Altiri Chiba93-61Nagasaki Velca
- Altiri Chiba91-104Nagasaki Velca
- Nagasaki Velca92-98Altiri Chiba
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Nagasaki Velca 1480 · Altiri Chiba 1439
| Nagasaki Velca | Altiri Chiba | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 68% | 32% |
| Market | 69% | 31% |
Estimated total (ours)
158.7 points · Bet365 line 158.5 · +0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
Estimated points158.7Nagasaki Velca 82.8 · Altiri Chiba 75.9
Match keys
- Nagasaki Velca is a clear favourite (69% market).
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
| Nagasaki Velca | Altiri Chiba | |
|---|---|---|
| Points F|A (Last 10) | 71.3 / 76.6 | 79 / 88.7 |
| Points F|A (Last 5) | 71.4 / 76.8 | 78 / 87.2 |
| Est. result | 83 | 76 |
Est. total158.7
Line O/U158.5
Diff.0.2
The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.
Head-to-head (H2H) · Nagasaki Velca 3–0–3 Altiri Chiba
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 05/10/25 Japan B League Premier | Altiri Chiba | 68-102 | Nagasaki Velca |
| 04/10/25 Japan B League Premier | Altiri Chiba | 97-94 | Nagasaki Velca |
| 14/05/23 Japan B League One | Altiri Chiba | 86-91 | Nagasaki Velca |
| 13/05/23 Japan B League One | Altiri Chiba | 93-61 | Nagasaki Velca |
| 12/05/23 Japan B League One | Altiri Chiba | 91-104 | Nagasaki Velca |
| 05/02/23 Japan B League One | Nagasaki Velca | 92-98 | Altiri Chiba |
Standings · Japan B League Premier · Western Conference
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| # | Team | P | W | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hiroshima Dragonflies | 7 | 7 | 0 | 658 | 555 | 0 |
| 2 | Nagoya Diamond Dolphins | 5 | 5 | 0 | 448 | 372 | 0 |
| 3 | San En Neo Phoenix | 5 | 5 | 0 | 444 | 388 | 0 |
| 4 | Kyoto Hannaryz | 7 | 5 | 2 | 582 | 555 | 0 |
| 5 | Mikawa Seahorses | 6 | 4 | 2 | 531 | 483 | 0 |
| 6 | Ryukyu Golden Kings | 7 | 3 | 4 | 564 | 575 | 0 |
| 7 | Shiga Lakes | 7 | 3 | 4 | 645 | 617 | 0 |
| 8 | Shimane Susanoo Magic | 7 | 3 | 4 | 569 | 587 | 0 |
| 9 | Nagasaki Velca | 8 | 3 | 5 | 575 | 642 | 0 |
| 10 | Kobe Storks | 7 | 2 | 5 | 538 | 591 | 0 |
| 11 | Shinshu Brave Warriors | 8 | 2 | 6 | 674 | 703 | 0 |
| 12 | Osaka Evessa | 7 | 1 | 6 | 496 | 596 | 0 |
| 13 | Saga Ballooners | 8 | 1 | 7 | 607 | 727 | 0 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Nagasaki Velca
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| Date | Opponent | FT | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17/10 | Tokyo Sun Rockers Japan B League Premier |
63-95 | L |
| 12/10 | Kobe Storks Japan B League Premier |
85-69 | W |
| 10/10 | Gunma Crane Thunders Japan B League Premier |
70-59 | W |
| 08/10 | Shinshu Brave Warriors Japan B League Premier |
74-71 | W |
| 04/10 | Kyoto Hannaryz Japan B League Premier |
65-90 | L |
| 03/10 | Kyoto Hannaryz Japan B League Premier |
76-84 | L |
| 25/09 | Shimane Susanoo Magic Japan B League Premier |
78-85 | L |
| 23/09 | Shimane Susanoo Magic Japan B League 1 |
64-89 | L |
| 26/05 | Ryukyu Golden Kings Japan B League Premier |
72-64 | W |
| 24/05 | Ryukyu Golden Kings Japan B League Premier |
66-60 | W |
Altiri Chiba
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| Date | Opponent | FT | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17/10 | Hiroshima Dragonflies Japan B League Premier |
71-89 | L |
| 11/10 | Toyama Grouses Japan B League Premier |
74-94 | L |
| 09/10 | Osaka Evessa Japan B League Premier |
97-90 | W |
| 07/10 | Sendai 89ers Japan B League Premier |
74-81 | L |
| 04/10 | Kanagawa Brave Thunders Japan B League Premier |
74-82 | L |
| 03/10 | Kanagawa Brave Thunders Japan B League Premier |
99-90 | W |
| 26/09 | Gunma Crane Thunders Japan B League Premier |
59-91 | L |
| 24/09 | Gunma Crane Thunders Japan B League 1 |
74-76 | L |
| 03/05 | Chiba Jets Japan B League Premier |
87-96 | L |
| 02/05 | Chiba Jets Japan B League Premier |
81-98 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Nagasaki Velca vs Altiri Chiba?
Our model gives 69% to Nagasaki Velca.
How many points are expected in Nagasaki Velca vs Altiri Chiba?
The model estimates 158.7 total points (Nagasaki Velca 82.8 · Altiri Chiba 75.9).