Basketball · New Zealand NBL · 17/07, 09:30
Prediction: Auckland Tuatara vs Manawatu Jets
Prediction summary
Estimated points
180Total
Auckland Tuatara95.7
Manawatu Jets84.4
1X2
Auckland Tuatara
Manawatu Jets
Markets
Under 186 points 65%
Recent form · 10 last
Auckland Tuatara
9-0-1 (W-D-L)
Manawatu Jets
5-0-5 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Auckland Tuatara
5–1
Manawatu Jets
(6 last)
Model analysis
Estimated points180Auckland Tuatara 95.7 · Manawatu Jets 84.4
Over / Under 186Under · 65%recent trend · ~180 pts · strength 6
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Auckland Tuatara (rating 1612 vs 1473).
- Auckland Tuatara is a clear favourite (79% market).
- H2H favours Auckland Tuatara: 5-1.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
| Auckland Tuatara | Manawatu Jets | |
|---|---|---|
| Points F|A (Last 10) | 94.9 / 76.8 | 92.2 / 96.4 |
| Points F|A (Last 5) | 91.6 / 77.4 | 93 / 97.8 |
| Est. result | 96 | 84 |
Est. total180
Line O/U186
Diff.6
Over / Under35% / 65%
The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.
Head-to-head (H2H) · Auckland Tuatara 5–0–1 Manawatu Jets
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25/04/26 New Zealand NBL | Manawatu Jets | 80-100 | Auckland Tuatara |
| 28/06/25 New Zealand NBL | Auckland Tuatara | 99-96 | Manawatu Jets |
| 12/06/25 New Zealand NBL | Manawatu Jets | 77-89 | Auckland Tuatara |
| 07/03/25 Basketball Matches | Manawatu Jets | 90-82 | Auckland Tuatara |
| 11/05/24 New Zealand NBL | Auckland Tuatara | 110-72 | Manawatu Jets |
| 27/04/24 New Zealand NBL | Manawatu Jets | 79-98 | Auckland Tuatara |
Standings · New Zealand NBL
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| # | Team | P | W | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Southland Sharks | 18 | 15 | 3 | 1730 | 1587 | 30 |
| 2 | Canterbury Rams | 18 | 14 | 4 | 1758 | 1529 | 28 |
| 3 | Auckland Tuatara | 17 | 14 | 3 | 1623 | 1404 | 28 |
| 4 | Wellington Saints | 17 | 12 | 5 | 1675 | 1531 | 24 |
| 5 | Otago Nuggets | 18 | 9 | 9 | 1560 | 1570 | 18 |
| 6 | Manawatu Jets | 18 | 7 | 11 | 1663 | 1796 | 14 |
| 7 | Taranaki Airs | 17 | 6 | 11 | 1425 | 1524 | 12 |
| 8 | Tauranga Whai | 17 | 6 | 11 | 1432 | 1578 | 12 |
| 9 | Nelson Giants | 18 | 5 | 13 | 1561 | 1652 | 10 |
| 10 | Franklin Bulls | 17 | 5 | 12 | 1518 | 1621 | 10 |
| 11 | Hawke’s Bay Hawks | 17 | 3 | 14 | 1500 | 1653 | 6 |
Common opponents 7 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Auckland Tuatara | Manawatu Jets |
|---|---|---|
| Otago Nuggets | 80-84 L | 104-97 W |
| Tauranga Whai | 109-59 W | 92-96 L |
| Nelson Giants | 88-82 W | 120-113 W |
| Hawke’s Bay Hawks | 85-74 W | 97-88 W |
| Wellington Saints | 96-88 W | 84-105 L |
| Taranaki Airs | 90-69 W | 89-77 W |
| Canterbury Rams | 100-97 W | 65-99 L |
| Record vs common | 6 W 0 D 1 L | 4 W 0 D 3 L |
Better against common opponents: Auckland Tuatara (5 of 7 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Auckland Tuatara
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| Date | Opponent | FT | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12/07 | Otago Nuggets New Zealand NBL |
80-84 | L |
| 04/07 | Tauranga Whai New Zealand NBL |
109-59 | W |
| 28/06 | Nelson Giants New Zealand NBL |
88-82 | W |
| 20/06 | Hawke’s Bay Hawks New Zealand NBL |
85-74 | W |
| 14/06 | Wellington Saints New Zealand NBL |
96-88 | W |
| 06/06 | Taranaki Airs New Zealand NBL |
90-69 | W |
| 03/06 | Canterbury Rams New Zealand NBL |
100-97 | W |
| 31/05 | Franklin Bulls New Zealand NBL |
107-72 | W |
| 23/05 | Tauranga Whai New Zealand NBL |
96-71 | W |
| 16/05 | Otago Nuggets New Zealand NBL |
98-72 | W |
Manawatu Jets
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| Date | Opponent | FT | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13/07 | Nelson Giants New Zealand NBL |
120-113 | W |
| 11/07 | Hawke’s Bay Hawks New Zealand NBL |
97-88 | W |
| 03/07 | Canterbury Rams New Zealand NBL |
65-99 | L |
| 25/06 | Otago Nuggets New Zealand NBL |
104-97 | W |
| 17/06 | Nelson Giants New Zealand NBL |
79-92 | L |
| 14/06 | Tauranga Whai New Zealand NBL |
92-96 | L |
| 01/06 | Wellington Saints New Zealand NBL |
84-105 | L |
| 29/05 | Taranaki Airs New Zealand NBL |
89-77 | W |
| 22/05 | Canterbury Rams New Zealand NBL |
93-100 | L |
| 15/05 | Tauranga Whai New Zealand NBL |
99-97 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Auckland Tuatara vs Manawatu Jets?
Our model gives 79% to Auckland Tuatara.
How many points are expected in Auckland Tuatara vs Manawatu Jets?
The model estimates 180 total points (Auckland Tuatara 95.7 · Manawatu Jets 84.4).
Over or under 186 points?
Recent history points to under 186 points (65%).