Basketball · New Zealand NBL · 25/07, 06:00

Prediction: Wellington Saints vs Southland Sharks

Prediction summary

Estimated points

186.7Total

Wellington Saints95.1

Southland Sharks91.6

1X2

60% 40%

Wellington Saints Southland Sharks

Markets

Under 190 points 75%

Recent form · 10 last

Wellington Saints 8-0-2 (W-D-L)

WWLWWWWLWW

Southland Sharks 9-0-1 (W-D-L)

WWWWLWWWWW

Head-to-head

Wellington Saints 5–1 Southland Sharks (6 last)

Southland Sharks104-90Wellington Saints
Wellington Saints88-83Southland Sharks
Southland Sharks72-93Wellington Saints

Model analysis

Estimated points186.7Wellington Saints 95.1 · Southland Sharks 91.6

Over / Under 190Under · 75%recent trend · ~183.9 pts · strength 6

Match keys

H2H favours Wellington Saints: 5-1.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

	Wellington Saints	Southland Sharks
Points F\|A (Last 10)	98.3 / 90.6	97.6 / 85.2
Points F\|A (Last 5)	100.4 / 92	101.6 / 84
Est. result	95	92

Est. total186.7

Line O/U190

Diff.3.3

Over / Under25% / 75%

The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.

Odds Bet365

Line ⓘ

Over 1901.93

Under 1901.81

Diff.: 4.15 · Est. total: 185.85

View on Bet365 ↗

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 15:46

	Pinnacle	Best now
1	1.84 → 1.69▼	Pinn 1.69
2	1.90 → 2.08▲	Pinn 2.08

See the full journey (2)

Pinnacle margin 7.1%

Time*	1	2
13:44 +1’	1.84	1.90
15:45 +1’	1.69▼	2.08▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Wellington Saints 5–0–1 Southland Sharks

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Date	Home	Score	Away
21/05/26 New Zealand NBL	Southland Sharks	104-90	Wellington Saints
20/07/25 New Zealand NBL	Wellington Saints	88-83	Southland Sharks
10/04/25 New Zealand NBL	Southland Sharks	72-93	Wellington Saints
26/03/25 New Zealand NBL	Wellington Saints	122-83	Southland Sharks
14/07/24 New Zealand NBL	Wellington Saints	88-78	Southland Sharks
15/04/24 New Zealand NBL	Southland Sharks	75-100	Wellington Saints

Standings · New Zealand NBL

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Southland Sharks	19	16	3	1833	1649	32
2	Canterbury Rams	19	15	4	1849	1609	30
3	Auckland Tuatara	19	15	4	1811	1586	30
4	Wellington Saints	19	14	5	1889	1708	28
5	Otago Nuggets	20	10	10	1718	1756	20
6	Tauranga Whai	19	7	12	1634	1751	14
7	Manawatu Jets	19	7	12	1754	1904	14
8	Nelson Giants	19	6	13	1659	1725	12
9	Franklin Bulls	18	6	12	1602	1702	12
10	Taranaki Airs	19	6	13	1579	1706	12
11	Hawke’s Bay Hawks	20	3	17	1723	1955	6

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Wellington Saints	Southland Sharks
Hawke’s Bay Hawks	107-82 W	103-62 W
Tauranga Whai	107-95 W	102-96 W
Canterbury Rams	88-98 L	103-98 W
Otago Nuggets	91-90 W	99-89 W
Nelson Giants	111-109 W	83-71 W
Franklin Bulls	81-67 W	86-75 W
Record vs common	5 W 0 D 1 L	6 W 0 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Southland Sharks (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Wellington Saints

WWLWWWWLWW

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
23/07	Hawke’s Bay Hawks New Zealand NBL	107-82	W
18/07	Tauranga Whai New Zealand NBL	107-95	W
12/07	Canterbury Rams New Zealand NBL	88-98	L
10/07	Tauranga Whai New Zealand NBL	109-95	W
04/07	Otago Nuggets New Zealand NBL	91-90	W
27/06	Nelson Giants New Zealand NBL	111-109	W
21/06	Franklin Bulls New Zealand NBL	81-67	W
14/06	Auckland Tuatara New Zealand NBL	88-96	L
07/06	Otago Nuggets New Zealand NBL	96-90	W
01/06	Manawatu Jets New Zealand NBL	105-84	W

Southland Sharks

WWWWLWWWWW

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
18/07	Hawke’s Bay Hawks New Zealand NBL	103-62	W
11/07	Nelson Giants New Zealand NBL	83-71	W
01/07	Canterbury Rams New Zealand NBL	103-98	W
24/06	Tauranga Whai New Zealand NBL	102-96	W
22/06	Hawke’s Bay Hawks New Zealand NBL	117-93	W
18/06	Taranaki Airs New Zealand NBL	84-93	L
13/06	Nelson Giants New Zealand NBL	95-85	W
07/06	Franklin Bulls New Zealand NBL	86-75	W
31/05	Otago Nuggets New Zealand NBL	99-89	W
21/05	Wellington Saints New Zealand NBL	104-90	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Wellington Saints vs Southland Sharks?

Our model gives 60% to Wellington Saints.

How many points are expected in Wellington Saints vs Southland Sharks?

The model estimates 186.7 total points (Wellington Saints 95.1 · Southland Sharks 91.6).

Over or under 190 points?

Recent history points to under 190 points (75%).