Basketball · New Zealand NBL · 23/07, 09:00
Prediction: Hawke’s Bay Hawks vs Wellington Saints
Prediction summary
Estimated points
184.9Total
Hawke’s Bay Hawks90.5
Wellington Saints94.4
1X2
Hawke’s Bay Hawks
Wellington Saints
Markets
Under 188 points 80%
Recent form · 10 last
Hawke’s Bay Hawks
1-0-9 (W-D-L)
Wellington Saints
8-0-2 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Hawke’s Bay Hawks
2–4
Wellington Saints
(6 last)
Model analysis
Estimated points184.9Hawke’s Bay Hawks 90.5 · Wellington Saints 94.4
Over / Under 188Under · 80%recent trend · ~181.6 pts · strength 6
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Wellington Saints (rating 1399 vs 1566).
- H2H favours Wellington Saints: 4-2.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
| Hawke’s Bay Hawks | Wellington Saints | |
|---|---|---|
| Points F|A (Last 10) | 82.1 / 96.6 | 98.3 / 90.3 |
| Points F|A (Last 5) | 76 / 96.2 | 101.2 / 97.4 |
| Est. result | 91 | 94 |
Est. total184.9
Line O/U188
Diff.3.1
Over / Under20% / 80%
The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.
Head-to-head (H2H) · Hawke’s Bay Hawks 2–0–4 Wellington Saints
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25/05/26 New Zealand NBL | Wellington Saints | 107-79 | Hawke’s Bay Hawks |
| 28/06/25 New Zealand NBL | Hawke’s Bay Hawks | 81-99 | Wellington Saints |
| 27/04/25 New Zealand NBL | Wellington Saints | 75-87 | Hawke’s Bay Hawks |
| 20/06/24 New Zealand NBL | Hawke’s Bay Hawks | 91-117 | Wellington Saints |
| 25/04/24 New Zealand NBL | Wellington Saints | 111-104 | Hawke’s Bay Hawks |
| 01/07/23 New Zealand NBL | Hawke’s Bay Hawks | 87-85 | Wellington Saints |
Standings · New Zealand NBL
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| # | Team | P | W | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Southland Sharks | 19 | 16 | 3 | 1833 | 1649 | 32 |
| 2 | Canterbury Rams | 19 | 15 | 4 | 1849 | 1609 | 30 |
| 3 | Auckland Tuatara | 19 | 15 | 4 | 1811 | 1586 | 30 |
| 4 | Wellington Saints | 18 | 13 | 5 | 1782 | 1626 | 26 |
| 5 | Otago Nuggets | 19 | 10 | 9 | 1652 | 1649 | 20 |
| 6 | Manawatu Jets | 19 | 7 | 12 | 1754 | 1904 | 14 |
| 7 | Nelson Giants | 19 | 6 | 13 | 1659 | 1725 | 12 |
| 8 | Franklin Bulls | 18 | 6 | 12 | 1602 | 1702 | 12 |
| 9 | Taranaki Airs | 19 | 6 | 13 | 1579 | 1706 | 12 |
| 10 | Tauranga Whai | 18 | 6 | 12 | 1527 | 1685 | 12 |
| 11 | Hawke’s Bay Hawks | 19 | 3 | 16 | 1641 | 1848 | 6 |
Common opponents 7 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Hawke’s Bay Hawks | Wellington Saints |
|---|---|---|
| Otago Nuggets | 79-92 L | 91-90 W |
| Manawatu Jets | 88-97 L | 105-84 W |
| Canterbury Rams | 77-93 L | 88-98 L |
| Auckland Tuatara | 74-85 L | 88-96 L |
| Franklin Bulls | 101-95 W | 81-67 W |
| Nelson Giants | 85-94 L | 111-109 W |
| Tauranga Whai | 88-94 L | 107-95 W |
| Record vs common | 1 W 0 D 6 L | 5 W 0 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: Wellington Saints (7 of 7 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Hawke’s Bay Hawks
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| Date | Opponent | FT | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18/07 | Southland Sharks New Zealand NBL |
62-103 | L |
| 16/07 | Otago Nuggets New Zealand NBL |
79-92 | L |
| 11/07 | Manawatu Jets New Zealand NBL |
88-97 | L |
| 02/07 | Taranaki Airs New Zealand NBL |
74-96 | L |
| 28/06 | Canterbury Rams New Zealand NBL |
77-93 | L |
| 22/06 | Southland Sharks New Zealand NBL |
93-117 | L |
| 20/06 | Auckland Tuatara New Zealand NBL |
74-85 | L |
| 13/06 | Franklin Bulls New Zealand NBL |
101-95 | W |
| 04/06 | Nelson Giants New Zealand NBL |
85-94 | L |
| 30/05 | Tauranga Whai New Zealand NBL |
88-94 | L |
Wellington Saints
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| Date | Opponent | FT | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18/07 | Tauranga Whai New Zealand NBL |
107-95 | W |
| 12/07 | Canterbury Rams New Zealand NBL |
88-98 | L |
| 10/07 | Tauranga Whai New Zealand NBL |
109-95 | W |
| 04/07 | Otago Nuggets New Zealand NBL |
91-90 | W |
| 27/06 | Nelson Giants New Zealand NBL |
111-109 | W |
| 21/06 | Franklin Bulls New Zealand NBL |
81-67 | W |
| 14/06 | Auckland Tuatara New Zealand NBL |
88-96 | L |
| 07/06 | Otago Nuggets New Zealand NBL |
96-90 | W |
| 01/06 | Manawatu Jets New Zealand NBL |
105-84 | W |
| 25/05 | Hawke’s Bay Hawks New Zealand NBL |
107-79 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Hawke’s Bay Hawks vs Wellington Saints?
Our model gives 61% to Wellington Saints.
How many points are expected in Hawke’s Bay Hawks vs Wellington Saints?
The model estimates 184.9 total points (Hawke’s Bay Hawks 90.5 · Wellington Saints 94.4).
Over or under 188 points?
Recent history points to under 188 points (80%).