Prediction: Hawke’s Bay Hawks vs Taranaki Airs
Estimated 176.2 total points (Hawke’s Bay Hawks 87.4 · Taranaki Airs 88.8). Under 183.5 points (70% of recent history, magic 7).
Recent form leaves Hawke’s Bay Hawks with 3 wins, 0 draws and 7 losses over 10 games; Taranaki Airs has piled up 2-0-8 in the same span. In the last 6 head-to-head meetings the record reads 1 wins for Hawke’s Bay Hawks and 5 for Taranaki Airs.
| Hawke’s Bay Hawks | Taranaki Airs | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 65% | 35% |
| Market | 50% | 50% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- H2H favours Taranaki Airs: 5-1.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
| Hawke’s Bay Hawks | Taranaki Airs | |
|---|---|---|
| Points F|A (Last 10) | 87.2 / 96.1 | 81 / 90 |
| Points F|A (Last 5) | 86 / 96.8 | 82.2 / 85.6 |
| Est. result | 87 | 89 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Hawke’s Bay Hawks 1–0–5 Taranaki Airs
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14/04/26 New Zealand NBL | Taranaki Airs | 93-84 | Hawke’s Bay Hawks |
| 15/06/25 New Zealand NBL | Hawke’s Bay Hawks | 72-84 | Taranaki Airs |
| 29/03/25 New Zealand NBL | Taranaki Airs | 114-88 | Hawke’s Bay Hawks |
| 26/06/24 New Zealand NBL | Hawke’s Bay Hawks | 93-109 | Taranaki Airs |
| 22/05/24 New Zealand NBL | Taranaki Airs | 103-76 | Hawke’s Bay Hawks |
| 11/05/23 New Zealand NBL | Taranaki Airs | 93-102 | Hawke’s Bay Hawks |
Standings · New Zealand NBL
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| # | Team | P | W | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Southland Sharks | 17 | 14 | 3 | 1647 | 1516 | 28 |
| 2 | Auckland Tuatara | 15 | 13 | 2 | 1434 | 1261 | 26 |
| 3 | Canterbury Rams | 15 | 11 | 4 | 1468 | 1286 | 22 |
| 4 | Wellington Saints | 14 | 10 | 4 | 1387 | 1248 | 20 |
| 5 | Otago Nuggets | 15 | 7 | 8 | 1294 | 1311 | 14 |
| 6 | Tauranga Whai | 15 | 6 | 9 | 1278 | 1360 | 12 |
| 7 | Taranaki Airs | 16 | 6 | 10 | 1335 | 1431 | 12 |
| 8 | Franklin Bulls | 15 | 5 | 10 | 1345 | 1441 | 10 |
| 9 | Manawatu Jets | 15 | 5 | 10 | 1381 | 1496 | 10 |
| 10 | Nelson Giants | 15 | 4 | 11 | 1289 | 1364 | 8 |
| 11 | Hawke’s Bay Hawks | 16 | 3 | 13 | 1412 | 1556 | 6 |
Common opponents 7 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Hawke’s Bay Hawks | Taranaki Airs |
|---|---|---|
| Canterbury Rams | 77-93 L | 86-113 L |
| Southland Sharks | 93-117 L | 93-84 W |
| Auckland Tuatara | 74-85 L | 69-90 L |
| Nelson Giants | 85-94 L | 91-107 L |
| Tauranga Whai | 88-94 L | 85-73 W |
| Wellington Saints | 79-107 L | 71-81 L |
| Otago Nuggets | 91-82 W | 77-90 L |
| Record vs common | 1 W 0 D 6 L | 2 W 0 D 5 L |
Better against common opponents: Hawke’s Bay Hawks (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Hawke’s Bay Hawks
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| Date | Opponent | FT | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 28/06 | Canterbury Rams New Zealand NBL |
77-93 | L |
| 22/06 | Southland Sharks New Zealand NBL |
93-117 | L |
| 20/06 | Auckland Tuatara New Zealand NBL |
74-85 | L |
| 13/06 | Franklin Bulls New Zealand NBL |
101-95 | W |
| 04/06 | Nelson Giants New Zealand NBL |
85-94 | L |
| 30/05 | Tauranga Whai New Zealand NBL |
88-94 | L |
| 25/05 | Wellington Saints New Zealand NBL |
79-107 | L |
| 23/05 | Franklin Bulls New Zealand NBL |
82-98 | L |
| 17/05 | Nelson Giants New Zealand NBL |
102-96 | W |
| 09/05 | Otago Nuggets New Zealand NBL |
91-82 | W |
Taranaki Airs
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| Date | Opponent | FT | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 27/06 | Otago Nuggets New Zealand NBL |
77-90 | L |
| 20/06 | Otago Nuggets New Zealand NBL |
87-91 | L |
| 18/06 | Southland Sharks New Zealand NBL |
93-84 | W |
| 12/06 | Tauranga Whai New Zealand NBL |
85-73 | W |
| 06/06 | Auckland Tuatara New Zealand NBL |
69-90 | L |
| 29/05 | Manawatu Jets New Zealand NBL |
77-89 | L |
| 24/05 | Canterbury Rams New Zealand NBL |
86-113 | L |
| 16/05 | Wellington Saints New Zealand NBL |
71-81 | L |
| 07/05 | Southland Sharks New Zealand NBL |
74-82 | L |
| 02/05 | Nelson Giants New Zealand NBL |
91-107 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Hawke’s Bay Hawks vs Taranaki Airs?
Our model gives 55% to Hawke’s Bay Hawks.
How many points are expected in Hawke’s Bay Hawks vs Taranaki Airs?
The model estimates 176.2 total points (Hawke’s Bay Hawks 87.4 · Taranaki Airs 88.8).
Over or under 183.5 points?
Recent history points to under 183.5 points (70%).