Prediction: Southland Sharks vs Nelson Giants
Estimated 182.4 total points (Southland Sharks 95.7 · Nelson Giants 86.7).
On recent form, Southland Sharks is 9-0-1 (wins-draws-losses) over its last 10 matches and Nelson Giants 3-0-7 over its own. In the last 6 head-to-head meetings, Southland Sharks won 5 and Nelson Giants 1.
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Southland Sharks (rating 1603 vs 1451).
- Southland Sharks is a clear favourite (80% market).
- H2H favours Southland Sharks: 5-1.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
| Southland Sharks | Nelson Giants | |
|---|---|---|
| Points F|A (Last 10) | 100.5 / 90.8 | 84.1 / 89.5 |
| Points F|A (Last 5) | 100.2 / 93 | 91.2 / 91.6 |
| Est. result | 96 | 87 |
The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.
Head-to-head (H2H) · Southland Sharks 5–0–1 Nelson Giants
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13/06/26 New Zealand NBL | Nelson Giants | 85-95 | Southland Sharks |
| 03/07/25 New Zealand NBL | Nelson Giants | 87-91 | Southland Sharks |
| 25/04/25 New Zealand NBL | Southland Sharks | 97-76 | Nelson Giants |
| 30/06/24 New Zealand NBL | Nelson Giants | 83-98 | Southland Sharks |
| 03/05/24 New Zealand NBL | Southland Sharks | 79-89 | Nelson Giants |
| 16/07/23 New Zealand NBL | Nelson Giants | 75-99 | Southland Sharks |
Standings · New Zealand NBL
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| # | Team | P | W | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Auckland Tuatara | 16 | 14 | 2 | 1543 | 1320 | 28 |
| 2 | Southland Sharks | 17 | 14 | 3 | 1647 | 1516 | 28 |
| 3 | Canterbury Rams | 16 | 12 | 4 | 1567 | 1351 | 24 |
| 4 | Wellington Saints | 15 | 11 | 4 | 1478 | 1338 | 22 |
| 5 | Otago Nuggets | 16 | 7 | 9 | 1384 | 1402 | 14 |
| 6 | Taranaki Airs | 16 | 6 | 10 | 1335 | 1431 | 12 |
| 7 | Tauranga Whai | 16 | 6 | 10 | 1337 | 1469 | 12 |
| 8 | Nelson Giants | 16 | 5 | 11 | 1377 | 1449 | 10 |
| 9 | Franklin Bulls | 16 | 5 | 11 | 1430 | 1529 | 10 |
| 10 | Manawatu Jets | 16 | 5 | 11 | 1446 | 1595 | 10 |
| 11 | Hawke’s Bay Hawks | 16 | 3 | 13 | 1412 | 1556 | 6 |
Common opponents 7 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Southland Sharks | Nelson Giants |
|---|---|---|
| Canterbury Rams | 103-98 W | 74-93 L |
| Tauranga Whai | 102-96 W | 58-69 L |
| Hawke’s Bay Hawks | 117-93 W | 94-85 W |
| Franklin Bulls | 86-75 W | 88-85 W |
| Otago Nuggets | 99-89 W | 63-88 L |
| Wellington Saints | 104-90 W | 109-111 L |
| Auckland Tuatara | 111-94 W | 82-88 L |
| Record vs common | 7 W 0 D 0 L | 2 W 0 D 5 L |
Better against common opponents: Southland Sharks (7 of 7 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Southland Sharks
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| Date | Opponent | FT | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01/07 | Canterbury Rams New Zealand NBL |
103-98 | W |
| 24/06 | Tauranga Whai New Zealand NBL |
102-96 | W |
| 22/06 | Hawke’s Bay Hawks New Zealand NBL |
117-93 | W |
| 18/06 | Taranaki Airs New Zealand NBL |
84-93 | L |
| 13/06 | Nelson Giants New Zealand NBL |
95-85 | W |
| 07/06 | Franklin Bulls New Zealand NBL |
86-75 | W |
| 31/05 | Otago Nuggets New Zealand NBL |
99-89 | W |
| 21/05 | Wellington Saints New Zealand NBL |
104-90 | W |
| 17/05 | Canterbury Rams New Zealand NBL |
104-95 | W |
| 14/05 | Auckland Tuatara New Zealand NBL |
111-94 | W |
Nelson Giants
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| Date | Opponent | FT | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 05/07 | Franklin Bulls New Zealand NBL |
88-85 | W |
| 28/06 | Auckland Tuatara New Zealand NBL |
82-88 | L |
| 27/06 | Wellington Saints New Zealand NBL |
109-111 | L |
| 17/06 | Manawatu Jets New Zealand NBL |
92-79 | W |
| 13/06 | Southland Sharks New Zealand NBL |
85-95 | L |
| 06/06 | Tauranga Whai New Zealand NBL |
58-69 | L |
| 04/06 | Hawke’s Bay Hawks New Zealand NBL |
94-85 | W |
| 30/05 | Canterbury Rams New Zealand NBL |
74-93 | L |
| 24/05 | Otago Nuggets New Zealand NBL |
63-88 | L |
| 17/05 | Hawke’s Bay Hawks New Zealand NBL |
96-102 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Southland Sharks vs Nelson Giants?
Our model gives 80% to Southland Sharks.
How many points are expected in Southland Sharks vs Nelson Giants?
The model estimates 182.4 total points (Southland Sharks 95.7 · Nelson Giants 86.7).