Basketball · New Zealand NBL · 16/07, 09:00

Prediction: Otago Nuggets vs Hawke’s Bay Hawks

Prediction summary

Estimated points

179.5Total

Otago Nuggets93.6

Hawke’s Bay Hawks85.9

1X2

71% 29%

Otago Nuggets Hawke’s Bay Hawks

Recent form · 10 last

Otago Nuggets 4-0-6 (W-D-L)

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Hawke’s Bay Hawks 1-0-9 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Otago Nuggets 2–4 Hawke’s Bay Hawks (6 last)

Model analysis

Estimated points179.5Otago Nuggets 93.6 · Hawke’s Bay Hawks 85.9

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Otago Nuggets (rating 1482 vs 1413).
Otago Nuggets is a clear favourite (71% market).
H2H favours Hawke’s Bay Hawks: 4-2.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

	Otago Nuggets	Hawke’s Bay Hawks
Points F\|A (Last 10)	87.4 / 90.9	84.1 / 97.6
Points F\|A (Last 5)	90.6 / 88	81.2 / 97.6
Est. result	94	86

Est. total179.5

Line O/U177.5

Diff.2

The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.

Head-to-head (H2H) · Otago Nuggets 2–0–4 Hawke’s Bay Hawks

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Date	Home	Score	Away
09/05/26 New Zealand NBL	Hawke’s Bay Hawks	91-82	Otago Nuggets
24/05/25 New Zealand NBL	Otago Nuggets	92-98	Hawke’s Bay Hawks
21/03/25 New Zealand NBL	Hawke’s Bay Hawks	86-93	Otago Nuggets
07/03/25 Basketball Matches	Hawke’s Bay Hawks	83-82	Otago Nuggets
08/06/24 New Zealand NBL	Otago Nuggets	108-86	Hawke’s Bay Hawks
11/05/24 New Zealand NBL	Hawke’s Bay Hawks	116-105	Otago Nuggets

Standings · New Zealand NBL

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Southland Sharks	18	15	3	1730	1587	30
2	Canterbury Rams	18	14	4	1758	1529	28
3	Auckland Tuatara	17	14	3	1623	1404	28
4	Wellington Saints	17	12	5	1675	1531	24
5	Otago Nuggets	18	9	9	1560	1570	18
6	Manawatu Jets	18	7	11	1663	1796	14
7	Taranaki Airs	17	6	11	1425	1524	12
8	Tauranga Whai	17	6	11	1432	1578	12
9	Nelson Giants	18	5	13	1561	1652	10
10	Franklin Bulls	17	5	12	1518	1621	10
11	Hawke’s Bay Hawks	17	3	14	1500	1653	6

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Otago Nuggets	Hawke’s Bay Hawks
Auckland Tuatara	84-80 W	74-85 L
Franklin Bulls	92-88 W	101-95 W
Wellington Saints	90-91 L	79-107 L
Taranaki Airs	90-77 W	74-96 L
Manawatu Jets	97-104 L	88-97 L
Canterbury Rams	58-93 L	77-93 L
Southland Sharks	89-99 L	93-117 L
Record vs common	3 W 0 D 4 L	1 W 0 D 6 L

Better against common opponents: Otago Nuggets (5 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Otago Nuggets

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
12/07	Auckland Tuatara New Zealand NBL	84-80	W
10/07	Franklin Bulls New Zealand NBL	92-88	W
04/07	Wellington Saints New Zealand NBL	90-91	L
27/06	Taranaki Airs New Zealand NBL	90-77	W
25/06	Manawatu Jets New Zealand NBL	97-104	L
20/06	Taranaki Airs New Zealand NBL	91-87	W
13/06	Canterbury Rams New Zealand NBL	58-93	L
07/06	Wellington Saints New Zealand NBL	90-96	L
05/06	Franklin Bulls New Zealand NBL	93-94	L
31/05	Southland Sharks New Zealand NBL	89-99	L

Hawke’s Bay Hawks

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
11/07	Manawatu Jets New Zealand NBL	88-97	L
02/07	Taranaki Airs New Zealand NBL	74-96	L
28/06	Canterbury Rams New Zealand NBL	77-93	L
22/06	Southland Sharks New Zealand NBL	93-117	L
20/06	Auckland Tuatara New Zealand NBL	74-85	L
13/06	Franklin Bulls New Zealand NBL	101-95	W
04/06	Nelson Giants New Zealand NBL	85-94	L
30/05	Tauranga Whai New Zealand NBL	88-94	L
25/05	Wellington Saints New Zealand NBL	79-107	L
23/05	Franklin Bulls New Zealand NBL	82-98	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Otago Nuggets vs Hawke’s Bay Hawks?

Our model gives 71% to Otago Nuggets.

How many points are expected in Otago Nuggets vs Hawke’s Bay Hawks?

The model estimates 179.5 total points (Otago Nuggets 93.6 · Hawke’s Bay Hawks 85.9).