Basketball · New Zealand NBL · 18/07, 06:00

Prediction: Southland Sharks vs Hawke’s Bay Hawks

Prediction summary

Estimated points

184.3Total

Southland Sharks98.8

Hawke’s Bay Hawks85.5

1X2

83% 17%

Southland Sharks Hawke’s Bay Hawks

Recent form · 10 last

Southland Sharks 9-0-1 (W-D-L)

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Hawke’s Bay Hawks 1-0-9 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Southland Sharks 2–4 Hawke’s Bay Hawks (6 last)

Model analysis

Estimated points184.3Southland Sharks 98.8 · Hawke’s Bay Hawks 85.5

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Southland Sharks (rating 1587 vs 1406).
Southland Sharks is a clear favourite (83% market).
H2H favours Hawke’s Bay Hawks: 4-2.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

	Southland Sharks	Hawke’s Bay Hawks
Points F\|A (Last 10)	97.7 / 88.5	83.8 / 97
Points F\|A (Last 5)	97.8 / 90.2	82.2 / 99
Est. result	99	86

Est. total184.3

Line O/U187

Diff.2.7

The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.

Head-to-head (H2H) · Southland Sharks 2–0–4 Hawke’s Bay Hawks

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Date	Home	Score	Away
22/06/26 New Zealand NBL	Hawke’s Bay Hawks	93-117	Southland Sharks
20/06/25 New Zealand NBL	Hawke’s Bay Hawks	76-92	Southland Sharks
22/05/25 New Zealand NBL	Southland Sharks	90-97	Hawke’s Bay Hawks
06/06/24 New Zealand NBL	Southland Sharks	99-100	Hawke’s Bay Hawks
07/04/24 New Zealand NBL	Hawke’s Bay Hawks	107-80	Southland Sharks
27/05/23 New Zealand NBL	Southland Sharks	87-106	Hawke’s Bay Hawks

Standings · New Zealand NBL

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Southland Sharks	18	15	3	1730	1587	30
2	Canterbury Rams	18	14	4	1758	1529	28
3	Auckland Tuatara	17	14	3	1623	1404	28
4	Wellington Saints	17	12	5	1675	1531	24
5	Otago Nuggets	18	9	9	1560	1570	18
6	Manawatu Jets	18	7	11	1663	1796	14
7	Nelson Giants	19	6	13	1659	1725	12
8	Taranaki Airs	18	6	12	1498	1622	12
9	Tauranga Whai	17	6	11	1432	1578	12
10	Franklin Bulls	17	5	12	1518	1621	10
11	Hawke’s Bay Hawks	17	3	14	1500	1653	6

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Southland Sharks	Hawke’s Bay Hawks
Nelson Giants	83-71 W	85-94 L
Canterbury Rams	103-98 W	77-93 L
Tauranga Whai	102-96 W	88-94 L
Taranaki Airs	84-93 L	74-96 L
Franklin Bulls	86-75 W	101-95 W
Otago Nuggets	99-89 W	79-92 L
Wellington Saints	104-90 W	79-107 L
Record vs common	6 W 0 D 1 L	1 W 0 D 6 L

Better against common opponents: Southland Sharks (7 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Southland Sharks

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
11/07	Nelson Giants New Zealand NBL	83-71	W
01/07	Canterbury Rams New Zealand NBL	103-98	W
24/06	Tauranga Whai New Zealand NBL	102-96	W
22/06	Hawke’s Bay Hawks New Zealand NBL	117-93	W
18/06	Taranaki Airs New Zealand NBL	84-93	L
13/06	Nelson Giants New Zealand NBL	95-85	W
07/06	Franklin Bulls New Zealand NBL	86-75	W
31/05	Otago Nuggets New Zealand NBL	99-89	W
21/05	Wellington Saints New Zealand NBL	104-90	W
17/05	Canterbury Rams New Zealand NBL	104-95	W

Hawke’s Bay Hawks

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
16/07	Otago Nuggets New Zealand NBL	79-92	L
11/07	Manawatu Jets New Zealand NBL	88-97	L
02/07	Taranaki Airs New Zealand NBL	74-96	L
28/06	Canterbury Rams New Zealand NBL	77-93	L
22/06	Southland Sharks New Zealand NBL	93-117	L
20/06	Auckland Tuatara New Zealand NBL	74-85	L
13/06	Franklin Bulls New Zealand NBL	101-95	W
04/06	Nelson Giants New Zealand NBL	85-94	L
30/05	Tauranga Whai New Zealand NBL	88-94	L
25/05	Wellington Saints New Zealand NBL	79-107	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Southland Sharks vs Hawke’s Bay Hawks?

Our model gives 83% to Southland Sharks.

How many points are expected in Southland Sharks vs Hawke’s Bay Hawks?

The model estimates 184.3 total points (Southland Sharks 98.8 · Hawke’s Bay Hawks 85.5).